Baseball Musings: Improving the Draft

August 16, 2008

Improving the Draft

19 June 2008: Tampa Bay Rays 2008 first overall pick Tim Beckham takes batting practice with his new team after signing his contract at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Fl. Beckham received $6.15 million.
Photo: Icon SMI

With so many players signing above their slot value this season, and with the kickback scandal among Latin American free agents, it seems like a good time to re-examine the baseball draft.

Baseball instituted the draft in the mid 1960s as part of a long war between the rich and poor clubs over the distribution of talent. Before the draft, players were free agents, able to sign with the club of their choice, usually for a high bonus. The complaint was that the rich teams gained an advantage by being able to sign players for bigger bonuses. Once signed, the reserve clause controlled costs since teams could simply renew players if they didn't reach an agreement, and the only recourse for the player was not to play. So rich teams could pay out a high initial cost for the player, knowing that long term their costs were under control.

To keep the rich teams from signing all the good players, the league instituted bonus baby rules. High priced signees had to stay on the major league roster for a fixed amount of time. The rich teams found ways around this by getting some poor teams to sign the player, then trade that player to the rich team when he was major league ready.

Finally, MLB decided on a draft that would allow the worst performing franchises a chance at the best talent. It worked. The Oakland Athletics of the 1970s were a result of the ability to sign the best talent in the late 1960s without interference. The Mets of the mid 1980s were built on the draft picks resulting from their terrible performances in the late 1970s and early 1980s. All went well with the draft until the early 1990s.

That's when the Athletics realized they could sign unsignable players. Todd Van Poppel was going to go to college. Thirteen teams passed him by before the Oakland Athletics took him with their pick. They offered him a ton of money, and suddenly college wasn't that important. This was the start of a breakdown in the system. As signing bonuses went higher, better players kept slipping down the draft list as the poorer teams decided they couldn't afford to sign them. No longer were the teams that needed the talent getting a fair shot at the best talent.

In the early days of the draft, teams used their leverage as the only employer to sign drafted players cheaply. Now, amateurs use their leverage of limited supply to demand large bonuses. Limited supply seems to have won over restricted demand.

In addition, MLB teams started looking overseas for players. These players were not covered by the draft, so the highest bidders could sign the best players, often at a lower cost than if the player were drafted. Again, this gave teams with more money, who were able to put scouts and academies in places like the Dominican Republic an advantage. We're basically back to the wealthier teams getting the best talent.

My first preference would be to abolish the draft, but that's not going to happen nor would it be desirable. Injecting poor performing teams with good talent is good for the game. We want different teams rising into the playoffs and winning the World Series.

My proposal would be to give each team a shot at fifteen players per round over a few rounds (four or five). MLB would create a ranked list of players, order 1 to 200 (for five rounds). The teams with the first five picks in the current system get to try to sign one of the top 15 players on the list. The teams with the next five picks get to negotiate with players six through twenty. Teams with picks in the range 11-15 can talk to players 11 through 25, and so on. When the draft would return to the team with the number one pick, they will be competing with some of the best teams in the league for talent. At the end, the top five teams would be the only ones allowed to sign the five lowest ranked players in the draft. Anyone not ranked on the top 150 would be a free agent and can sign with any team.

If a player doesn't sign, he would be ineligible to sign anywhere until two drafts have passed (someone who didn't sign in 2009 can't be drafted or signed until 2012). So high school players who say they want to got to college get to spend three years getting an education and playing ball. Any team failing to sign one of the fifteen players assigned to their slot simply loses out on that round.

The master list would be drawn up from the draft lists of the 30 teams. They would submit a ranked list of players, 1-200. A Borda count would be used to rank the players, with this exception. Only the ballots for the team with the first five draft picks would determine the top five players in the draft. Five more teams would be added to determine the top ten, and so forth through the first round of the draft. That way, teams with low draft picks can't game the system to force good players to drop down.

This style of draft might not make for exciting television, but it would improve some current problems with the system.

More choices for teams mean that they are more likely to sign some talented player. If a player like Aaron Crow asks for too much money, the team can simply move on to a more reasonable player.
It gives the player more of a choice. Maybe the draftee wants to play close to home. Maybe there's more of an opening for his position on a particular team. He has a choice, and might be willing to take less money for these other considerations.
Players can't fall that far through the draft. The five best players sign with the five worst teams or day are out of a job for three years. The World Champions would not have access to the best 25 players in the draft.
Internationals players can easily be integrated into the system without without totally losing the free agent right they currently possess.

Overall, this plan should force good talent onto weak teams without handcuffing either side. I'm curious to hear what readers think of this plan.

Posted by David Pinto at 02:44 PM | Draft | TrackBack (0)

Comments

I see where you're coming from. I just wouldn't like to see the set of players from which a team can choose artificially limited.

Also, I think that understanding your likelihood to sign a player before you draft him is a skill that some GMs have and some apparently don't. The Brewers have signed every one of their 2008 draft picks from the first 22 rounds, That's shrewd picking in my mind.

I would really prefer a system where teams held rights to a drafted player regardless of whether they went to college. For example, the first four years after being drafted or the first three years after they sign - whichever is longer. Then, in many cases it would be beneficial to the Major League teams if some of their players went to college - even if for only a year. I think it would strengthen the college game. I think hockey does something like this.

Then, I think every player entering the Majors should be required to come through the draft. I think that's that biggest loophole in the current system. If you're going to have a draft at all, you might as very make it air tight.

Posted by: Scott Segrin at August 16, 2008 04:08 PM

This idea sucks.

Posted by: Joey at August 16, 2008 05:42 PM

Interesting ideas. As it now stands, if a high school kid forgoes the draft he has to spend three years at college (or doing something else, he's just ineligible for the next three drafts)

Posted by: rbj at August 16, 2008 05:53 PM

Joey, that's not true.

A player drafted out of high school can play independent ball or go to a JuCo and be draft eligible the next year. It's only when a player goes to a four-year school that he is ineligible to be drafted for three years.

Posted by: Bryan at August 16, 2008 08:22 PM

I think there's some sense in this. I'll have to read again and give it some more thought.

I'd also like to see some kind of salary cap on drafted players.

Posted by: Devon Young at August 16, 2008 09:01 PM

I would like to see the same system s the NFL. A team could trade draft picks for already signed players ( minor league or major league) or for a lower draft pick plus players. A drafted player could be traded at any time, not a one year "freeze" as is now.

harry

Posted by: harry at August 17, 2008 12:24 AM

harry

Posted by: harry at August 17, 2008 12:24 AM

harry

Posted by: harry at August 17, 2008 12:24 AM

Way to complicated and way too likely to just drive up cost. The Owners (and for that matter the Players association) will never agree to.

What I expect to ultimately happen is for the players association to agree to an international draft with fixed pay scale (like the NBA) that frees up mor money for MLB to spend on the players already in the Players Association as opposed to those trying to eventually take their jobs.

Posted by: giantsrainman at August 17, 2008 02:11 AM

I have a pretty comprehensive response here:

http://baltimorebirdsnest.blogspot.com/2008/08/fixing-draft.html

Posted by: WillClark4HOF at August 17, 2008 02:24 PM

What if the teams were allotted an amount to sign their drafted players and if they don't sign a player, he becomes a free agent. Then if a team wanted to spend all their money on a first round pick, they could, but they'd have less money with which to sign the other players. The teams could be allotted amounts based on their records to allow worse teams an advantage.

Posted by: AC at August 17, 2008 07:29 PM

Alot of these schemes are ways to get around the fact that some teams will spend more money on players than other teams, either because their owners are willing to, or the teams take in more revenue.

Ultimately, the only way you "fix" this is to either limit the league to teams run by owners willing to spend, using minimum salaries and expenditure; and/ or set maximum salaries or expenditure; or have players sign directly with the league instead of the team. Unless you address the fundamental problem you are just creating a complicated system that can be gamed.

Posted by: Ed at August 18, 2008 07:01 AM

re: the draft and elemental game theory & economics

the problem with the draft, or any draft really, is that it ignores basic economics and basic game theory.

if you have a zero sum (or non-zero sum) game involving three or more players, it is fairly easy to demonstrate that in a three player game, two of the players will collude or cooperate vs. the remaining player to their mutual advantage, and to the disadvantage of the remaining player.

applying this to a thirty player game, it's easy to see that the rich teams will cooperate or collude to exclude the poor ones from signing the talented draft picks whether there is a draft or not.

even with a draft in place now, small market teams avoid drafting any player with a large price tag or whose agent has made it known he wants a lot of money. this is obviously a case of collusion with the major market teams with the agents to price smaller market teams out of some of the best talent.

game theory dictates that no matter what system you put into place, alliances and strategic cooperative agreements will form to defeat the purpose of the system. Equality cannot be achieved in an economic system because all of the players are gaming the system, as it were, to maximize their output, which in this case, is winning.

--art kyriazis, philly

Posted by: art kyriazis at August 18, 2008 12:12 PM

This system is a good idea but it seems unecessarily complicated.

Why not eliminate most of the rounds (it has 113 currently) and tell the players to declare themselves eligbible forthe draft.

-If a player gets drafted in the first round they have to sign at a specific rate (which is based on draft position and adjusted each year for inflation and every five years the rate for each slot would be adjusted by the league)

-any player drafted outside of the first round negotiates with the team that drafted him only. (like NFL)

- Any player that is undrafted but declared eligible for the draft retains NCAA eligibility

Posted by: Jeff V at August 18, 2008 03:52 PM

Post a comment

Baseball Info Solutions The publisher of the Bill James Handbook and a great source of stats.

ESPN.com's baseball page.

STATS, Inc. You'll find great baseball books and fantasy games here.

Baseball Direct Scoreboard This is powered by STATS, Inc. Good box scores, and good situational stats.

Baseball Reference.com It's like having Total Baseball and the Big Mac online!

Baseball Trade Rumors Thoughts on wheeling and dealing.

Baseball Prospectus.com Wonderful commentary and analysis.

Baseball Primer Baseball for the Thinking Fan.

The Hardball Times Baseball. Insight. Daily.

Minor League Spilts Database Up-to-date minor league statistics, broken down by situation.

Inside The Book A blog by the authors of The Book.

Baseboogle A search engine for baseball research sites.

Win Shares From Major League Baseball Graphs.

The Transaction Guy A baseball transactions blog.

Japan Baseball Daily An English language site for Japanese baseball news and stats.

Doug's Business of Baseball Weblog A blog with a focus on the economics of the game.

Why I Like Baseball A Yankee fan writes about her favorite team.

Skilton's Baseball Links Links to numerous baseball sources.

Dan Lewis A blog about all sports.

Birds in the Belfry A site about the Orioles. Articles and research.

Only Baseball Matters A baseball blog by a John J. Perricone.

Jocksalot Lots of sports links.

Al's Ramblings A Brewer's blog.

Futility Infielder Jay Jaffe's baseball site. More than just a blog.

Mike's Baseball Rants Mike Carminati's baseball blog.

Aaron's Baseball Blog A general interest baseball blog.

Boy of Summer Travis Nelson on baseball.

Baseball Crank Dan McLaughlin's blog on baseball, the war and politics.

Bambino's Curse Edward Cossette's blog about the Red Sox.

Oakland Athletics Blog David Levens writes about the A's.

Ducksnorts Articles and Blog by Geoff.

Boston Sports Media Bruce Allen's roundup of the Boston Sports Media.

The Diamond Angle An online baseball magazine.

The Cub Reporter A Chicago Cubs blog.

Bronx Banter A baseball blog by Al Belth.

At Home Plate Articles by Jonathan Leshanski.

Dodger Thoughts Jon Weisman on the Dodgers.

The Clark & Addison Chronicle A Chicago Cubs web log.

Baseball Writing Joe Zibell's essays on baseball.

The Eddie Kranepool Society A Mets blog.

Mariners Weblog The Seattle Post-Intelligencer's weblog written by Shannon Fears

PortlandSoxFan.com A Red Sox blog from Portland, CT.

The Detroit Tigers Weblog Two Tigers fans and their take on the Motor City team.

A Rookie's Life The blog of Cleveland Indians' rookie Jody Gerut.

The Baseball Desert An Englishman living in France writes about the American game.

ChiSox Daily Mike Lubuda writes about the White Sox.

Shallow Center A blog mostly about the Phillies.

The House that Dewey Built Jeff Kuhn writes about the Red Sox.

SethSpeaks.net A blog by a Twins fan.

Frank's Field of Dreams News about Asian players in the United States.

Jay's Giants Blog William Jay blogging about the Giants.

Baseball Savant Cutting edge baseball news and analysis updated everyday from all aspects of the greatest show on dirt!

Athletics Nation Blogging about the A's.

Red Reporter JD Arney writes about the Reds.

Dominican Players Raul Tavares writes about players from his home country.

The Pearly Gates An Anaheim Angels Blog.

Red Sox Haven Randy Booth on baseball.

Tigers Weblog The Detroit News weblog on the Tigers, written by Tom Gage.

Management by Baseball Jeff Angus writes on how business can learn from baseball.

The View From the Bleachers A Chicago Cubs blog.

Cubs Now! Brian Hipp on the Cubs.

Honest Wagner A Pittsburgh Pirates weblog.

All-Baseball.com A collection of excellent baseball weblogs.

Soxaholix A comic strip blog about the Red Sox.

Most Valuable Network Blogging all 30 teams.

Baseball, Etcetera Andrew Godfrey's baseball blog.

Most Valuable Network, Astros Lisa Gray and others write about the Astros.

fenwayfanatics.com A Boston Red Sox blog.

Balls, Sticks & Stuff A sports blog with an emphasis on baseball.

Phillies Nation Brian Michael writes about the Phillies.

Batgirl Less stats, more sass.

Sabernomics Economic thinking about baseball.

Fire Brand of the American League A blog about the Red Sox.

Ivy Chat Chicago Cubs and other rants.

Baseball Evolution A group website writing about baseball.

The Cubdom.com Byron Clarke blogs about the Cubs.

Red Sox Stats Sabermetric numbers for the Red Sox system.

DRays Bay A blog devoted to the Tampa Bay Devil Rays.

Baseball Analysts Rich Lederer and Bryan Smith combine their baseball expertise into a single site.

Over the Monster A Red Sox blog by Randy Booth.

Viva el Birdos Ghosts of the St. Louis Cardinals past, present, and future.

Black Sox Blog A look at the current and historical teams of the South Side of Chicago.

Redleg Nation A group blog about the Cincinnati Reds.

Barry's Journal Barry Bonds' web log.

Hardball Dollars Keeping track of major league salaries.

Clem's Baseball and it's "Green Cathedrals" The resource for baseball stadiums on the web.

The Baseball Zealot Looking at the game of baseball from all sides of the spectrum .

Was Watching Laconic commentary from a Yankeeland zealot.

Bleed Cubbie Blue A Chicago Cubs blog.

Beaneball A's baseball from the heart of New York City.

The Writers A collection of sports writers express their opinions.

Yard Work What the Baseball Tonight crew would write if it could.

United States of Baseball Peter Handrinos' baseball columns.

Beer Leaguer Alternative veiwpoints on the Philadelphia Phillies.

Red Sox Connection Links to everything Red Sox.

Baseball Pilgrimages Stories of visits to baseball parks.

Fangraphs Multi-year charts of player stats.

Roto Authority Unique fantasy baseball information.

Yanksfan vs. Soxfan A Yankees fan and a Red Sox fan battle it out in the blogosphere.

Sawxblog.com A Red Sox fan writes about the home town team.

Oriole Magic An MVN blog about the Orioles.

The Baltimore Chop Joseph Jackson on the Orioles.

Lookout Landing A Seattle Mariners blog.

Sons of Bart Brush A blog about the Harvard baseball team.

Base Blogging A resource for sports and baseball bloggers.

Three True Outcomes A group blog by on major league baseball.

Cardinals Diaspora A blog for Cardinals fans living away from St. Louis.

Where Have You Gone, Andy Van Slyke? A Pittsburgh fan chronicles life in the Grand Canyon.

Brew Crew Ball A blog about the Milwaukee Brewers.

Getting Paid to Watch Posts by a former trainer for the NY Mets.

The Gas House Gang An historical St. Louis Cardinals Blog.

6-4-2 An Angels/Dodgers double play blog.

El Guapo's Ghost Rambles on about the Red Sox Baseball and the Red Sox.

Baseball Etc

Tiger Tales A Detroit Tigers web log.

The Baseball Card Blog A blog about baseball cards.

Sox1Fan A Red Sox blog.

Out of Left Field Another Red Sox blog.

New York Yankees Update A Yankees blog with lots of photos.

Liberty Ball A current and historical Phillies blog.

Crawfish Boxes A Houston Astros blog.

MLB Rumors Clearinghouse News from around the majors.

Roar From 34 A group blog about the Orioles.

Blogging Baseball All-time baseball highlights and real-time commentary.

Rubber Arm A group blog about major league baseball.

Fenway Nation More news about the Red Sox.

Rays of Light A Devil Rays blog.

Fantasy Baseball Chronicle Information for fantasy players.

American Legends A sports blog.

Duffy's Cliff An interactive Red Sox site, featuring a lexicon of the Red Sox.

Oriole Post - The World of Baseball and Beyond An Orioles blog.

DRays Bay A Devil Rays blog.

Mets Heads A blog about the New York Mets.

The Soul of Baseball Joe Posnanski promotes his book on Buck O'Neil and blogs about baseball.

My Baseball Bias A blog about East Coast baseball.

Sports Business Radio Articles and talk about the business of sports.

The Game of Baseball A blog about Major League Baseball.

Baseball Hot Corner Opinionated observations for the thinking fan.

FantasyDope.com Fantasy baseball news.

Peter's Red Sox Forever A Red Sox blog.

Sox Nest Commentary on the Red Sox.

The Big Oz A Florida Marlins blog.

Baseball Reflections Where old school baseball meets sabermetrics.

The Sommer Frieze A Yankees blog.

Fenway Nation A Red Sox fan site.

In-Between Hops A Milwaukee Brewers blog.

Right Field Bleachers Another Milwaukee Brewers blog.

On Baseball and the Reds Another Cincinnati Reds blog.

Crooked Pitch A fantasy baseball blog.

Bless You Boys A Detroit Tigers blog.

Cubs f/x Pitch f/x and the Chicago Cubs.

The Hot Corner

Eephus Pitch Tossing pure junk about New York baseball since 2006.

It Is High, It Is Far, It Is Caught A tribute to John Sterling.

Baseball GB Baseball from a British perspective.

Nick and Nick's Twins Blog A couple of Nicks write on the Twins.

SkyKing162 Baseball with a hint of lime.

Center Field A Red Sox blog.

Empyreal Environs Writing about the Red Sox.

Trophy League Planet Aggregating the baseball blogosphere.

Cardinals Best News Links Aggregating St. Louis Cardinals news.

Zell's Pinstripe Blog A Yankees Blog.

HSAC Blog Official Musings of the Harvard College Sports Analysis Collective.

The Baseball Fix A general baseball blog.

MLB Roundup A baseball video blog.

Fantasy Dope Fantasy Baseball News.

The Cubs Brickyard Hilarious fake news.

Spitting Seeds A blog about Major League baseball.

Infield Chatter A blog covering all aspects of baseball.

The Bronx View A blog and podcast about the Yankees.

Jorge Says No A blog about the Yankees.

Ivy League to MLB Shawn Haviland blogs about his efforts to rise through the Oakland Athletics system.

This Purist Bleeds Pinstripes Blog of a girl who somehow has found a way to balance being a baseball purist with being a New York Yankees fan.

Baseball from Wrigley A Chicago Cubs blog.

Sliding into Home A Yankees blog.

Boras Blog Blogging about Scott Boras.

Injury Tool Fantasy Pitch F/X offers complete information on injuries.

Instapundit Politics and the law. This site inspired me to start blogging.

Rookie Cards Baseball Card grading.

Wild Treasure Treasure hunts through the blogosphere.

San Diego Ticket Finder San Diego Ticket Information.

Prize Sports.net Baseball Collectibles.

Fantasy Sports R Us The #1 Fantasy Baseball Leagues site on the web.

RotoRank - Fantasy Baseball Draft Guides Customized For Any Fantasy Baseball League.