Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
November 08, 2007
Reluctant Runners

Ross Roley at Baseball Analysts discovers that base runners are much too conservative in trying to advance an extra base based on the break even probabilities of doing so. They need a nearly 100% probability to advance, when a much lower probability yields a higher run potential.

For as long as I can remember, baseball announcers were always warning fans that it's a mortal sin for ballplayers to make the first or third out at 3rd base. The data above tests that claim and supports half of the general tenet. With two outs, the highest break-even mark is at 92% when a runner tries for 3rd on a single. Similarly, the first graph showed us that runners trying to advance to 3rd on a flyball caught for the second out have break-even rates of 97% with a runner on 2nd and 92% with runners on 1st and 2nd. So it's clear that making the final out at 3rd with two outs is not recommended. However, with nobody out, the story is different. Runners trying to advance to 3rd have a break even rate of 81%, but runners trying to score have break-even rates of 91% or 87% depending on the situation. So it appears that the greater sin is getting thrown out at home with nobody out, not at 3rd.

The whole article is well worth the read.


Posted by David Pinto at 08:50 AM | Base Running • | Base Running | TrackBack (0)
Comments

Actually, it's just one of the characters, Bill, who feels that way about Cabrera and not "The Soxaholix" as a whole.

I know it's difficult from your end to get that specific when linking, but considering the community around the site seems to be at least 3 to 1 against such a trade, it definitely seems Bill is an outlier among Sox fans.

Posted by: Hart at November 8, 2007 02:01 PM

Oops, posted this in the wrong place.

Posted by: h.b. at November 8, 2007 02:02 PM

Every baseball coach I ever had said to avoid making the first out at home and the third out at third. Which is exactly what is confirmed by the study.

So I guess what I'm asking is, where are all these announcers telling us not to make the first out at third? I don't think I have ever heard this.

Posted by: moose tacos at November 8, 2007 03:47 PM

i believe you meant runners are "too" conservative.

two too to

does not take a harvard grad! :)

Posted by: tony at November 9, 2007 03:25 AM
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