Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
May 09, 2008
Stealing Scientifically

Nick Piecoro takes an indepth look at how the Diamondbacks reach a decision on trying to steal a base:

With their cheap, controllable talent, teeming farm system and disciplined hitters, the Diamondbacks are a next-generation type team, and their approach to base stealing follows the same script.

Players recite the need to have at least a 75 percent success rate, and their extreme selectiveness of when to run seems to have an almost scientific feel.

"We want the reward to outweigh the risk," Gibson said.

The risk side of the equation is cluttered with factors, including the time it takes a pitcher to deliver a pitch, the catcher's arm strength, a pitcher's move to first, the count, the situation, a runner's technique and confidence factor, and everything in between.

They time pitchers to the plate and catchers to second base. They study pickoff moves and pitch selection tendencies. They stolen 86 bases with just 16 caught stealing since the 2007 All-Star break, a 84.6% success rate. Only the Phillies at 87 steals and 13 caught stealings are better.


Posted by David Pinto at 10:27 AM | Base Running
Comments

Can you imagine if Brian Bannister pitched for them, and/or Manny Acta managed them? Every stat-head fan in the country would be buying D-Backs caps.

Nice spamments.

Posted by: Erin W. at May 9, 2008 04:57 PM

Gee - they must have invented that

Posted by: bandit at May 9, 2008 06:38 PM