Have you considered doing a true talent-based graph? In other words, if you were to recalculate his true talent based on the last year each day, use that as an estimate for how he'll proceed for the rest of the season, and then calculate the odds.

I think it would probably more accurately reflect his chances, if we're to trust true talent determination through Marcel or the like, but it may be too much work.

Sal,

No I haven't, but it's a good idea.

Since you have the day by day database already, it may not actually be that much work. Just do a running marcels before you update the graph, though you'd have to recalculate from day 1 again.