The World Baseball Classic finals take place this afternoon and evening in San Diego. Cuba face the Dominican Republic in the early game (3 PM EST) while Korea hosts Japan this evening (10 PM EST).

I expect both games to be close. PETCO hurts the Dominican offense the most. The Dominicans hit 9 home runs so far in this tournament, tied with the US for the most. PETCO is off the scale in preventing home runs, according to The Bill James Handbook 2006. The Cubans strike me as more of a small ball team than the Dominicans, so the park works in their favor. It also works in their favor from the point of view of their pitching, as Cuba's seven home runs allowed are the most in the tournament.

Korea and Japan are just too evenly matched. Japan's offense is number one in the tournament, scoring 44 runs in six games, the most by any team. They're doing that with an impressive .398 OBA. The Koreans allowed only eight runs in the WBC, all of them earned. In their two games vs. Japan, they've held their neighbors to the east to just three runs. Japan scored 28 runs vs. the two Chinese teams, but just four runs a game otherwise. I would not be surprised to see another one run contest tonight. With Korea getting the last at bat, and with two wins over Japan already, South Korea gets a slight advantage in my book.

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