February 23, 2006
Probabilistic Model of Range, 2005, Runs Created Against Rightfielders
We continue the run through the positions with the rightfielders:
Probabilistic Model of Range, 2005, Runs Created Against Rightfielders, Original Model (minimum 200 fieldable balls in play)
| Player | Fieldable Balls In Play | Actual Outs by Fielder | Predicted Outs by Fielder | RCA | Predicted RCA | RCA/27 Outs | Predicted RCA/27 | Runs Saved/27 Outs |
| Jose Cruz | 228 | 110 | 90.55 | 21.94 | 37.87 | 5.39 | 11.29 | 5.905 |
| Jeff B Francoeur | 281 | 131 | 116.89 | 35.38 | 46.79 | 7.29 | 10.81 | 3.516 |
| Chad A Tracy | 208 | 86 | 82.33 | 26.05 | 33.98 | 8.18 | 11.14 | 2.966 |
| Jay Gibbons | 296 | 133 | 126.19 | 20.37 | 32.67 | 4.14 | 6.99 | 2.855 |
| Nick T Swisher | 447 | 198 | 180.06 | 51.42 | 65.75 | 7.01 | 9.86 | 2.847 |
| Vladimir Guerrero | 516 | 245 | 225.72 | 54.09 | 66.76 | 5.96 | 7.99 | 2.024 |
| Trot Nixon | 567 | 240 | 234.77 | 63.85 | 79.64 | 7.18 | 9.16 | 1.975 |
| Jeromy Burnitz | 664 | 303 | 291.75 | 80.84 | 97.71 | 7.20 | 9.04 | 1.839 |
| Casey Blake | 610 | 287 | 280.95 | 57.37 | 74.09 | 5.40 | 7.12 | 1.723 |
| Mike Cameron | 318 | 137 | 122.46 | 36.28 | 40.15 | 7.15 | 8.85 | 1.702 |
| Jermaine Dye | 619 | 260 | 252.18 | 74.32 | 85.79 | 7.72 | 9.19 | 1.468 |
| Magglio Ordonez | 309 | 139 | 136.15 | 38.65 | 45.16 | 7.51 | 8.96 | 1.447 |
| Jason Lane | 516 | 225 | 210.46 | 67.10 | 73.21 | 8.05 | 9.39 | 1.340 |
| Ichiro Suzuki | 771 | 383 | 361.02 | 63.59 | 76.00 | 4.48 | 5.68 | 1.201 |
| Shawn Green | 522 | 232 | 218.32 | 73.14 | 75.97 | 8.51 | 9.40 | 0.883 |
| Brian Giles | 651 | 295 | 277.54 | 92.24 | 95.67 | 8.44 | 9.31 | 0.864 |
| Geoff Jenkins | 652 | 307 | 292.31 | 64.56 | 70.79 | 5.68 | 6.54 | 0.861 |
| Bobby Abreu | 602 | 267 | 261.04 | 69.81 | 75.94 | 7.06 | 7.85 | 0.795 |
| Victor I Diaz | 339 | 153 | 150.52 | 37.26 | 39.97 | 6.57 | 7.17 | 0.595 |
| Richard Hidalgo | 398 | 174 | 169.72 | 55.95 | 57.57 | 8.68 | 9.16 | 0.476 |
| Sammy Sosa | 289 | 121 | 124.99 | 32.99 | 35.60 | 7.36 | 7.69 | 0.329 |
| Emil Brown | 579 | 243 | 252.59 | 76.05 | 81.67 | 8.45 | 8.73 | 0.280 |
| Austin Kearns | 481 | 238 | 234.46 | 42.62 | 44.04 | 4.83 | 5.07 | 0.237 |
| Jacque Jones | 592 | 262 | 256.70 | 76.89 | 76.34 | 7.92 | 8.03 | 0.105 |
| Jose Guillen | 659 | 299 | 298.66 | 73.21 | 73.22 | 6.61 | 6.62 | 0.008 |
| Aubrey Huff | 470 | 204 | 207.52 | 52.60 | 53.17 | 6.96 | 6.92 | -0.044 |
| Alexis I Rios | 563 | 246 | 256.53 | 63.82 | 65.76 | 7.01 | 6.92 | -0.084 |
| Gary Sheffield | 553 | 240 | 225.92 | 71.32 | 66.33 | 8.02 | 7.93 | -0.096 |
| Moises Alou | 231 | 90 | 97.28 | 28.55 | 30.27 | 8.56 | 8.40 | -0.164 |
| Juan Encarnacion | 521 | 216 | 213.79 | 68.31 | 66.12 | 8.54 | 8.35 | -0.189 |
| Brad B Hawpe | 379 | 148 | 156.44 | 60.51 | 62.62 | 11.04 | 10.81 | -0.230 |
| Michael Tucker | 230 | 91 | 94.94 | 33.88 | 32.77 | 10.05 | 9.32 | -0.734 |
| Larry Walker | 265 | 107 | 107.33 | 38.20 | 35.34 | 9.64 | 8.89 | -0.750 |
| Matt Lawton | 538 | 230 | 240.06 | 72.21 | 60.57 | 8.48 | 6.81 | -1.664 |
| Craig Monroe | 280 | 132 | 138.13 | 35.85 | 27.34 | 7.33 | 5.34 | -1.989 |
| Wily Mo Pena | 235 | 92 | 105.82 | 37.26 | 25.36 | 10.93 | 6.47 | -4.464 |
There's a lot of good right field defense in the AL West as Swisher and Guerrero lead the regulars. And given Griffey's poor ratings, putting Willy Mo Pena next to him makes the Reds defense pretty poor. Maybe the Cincinnati pitching is a bit better than we think.
Update: In helping out a friend, I was looking at
Sheffield's probability of getting an out vs. runs saved. As you can see, Sheffield does well if you just look at getting outs vs. not, but is negative when you look at runs saved. My first thought on this is that Gary is poor at cutting off balls in the gap. Does anyone have thoughts on this?
How much of Sheffield's numbers is attributed to Gary and how much relies on having a below-average centerfielder next to him for much of the season? Just a thought.
Sheff's problem always seems to be more with balls hit to the corner than in the gap. (at the Stadium anyways.)
Once again, Ichiro overrated... it's a trend
from watching Sheff play for the Braves . . . I seem to remember that he often took a straight route to balls hit in the gap, the result being he made a lot of shoetop/diving grabs but sometimes let the ball get past him for extra bases. kind of an all or nothing approach.
David: With Sheffield, I think you may be seeing a ballhog factor. Bernie and Cano (and maybe Giambi?) both are the reverse of Sheffield: they look much worse on outs than runs. It looks like Gary is grabbing a lot of discretionary balls that others could have caught, but missing balls that really matter. Does that make sense, given the way you're calculating runs saved?
It's possible. I'll probably need to look at where Sheffield is missing the ball.
What's the deal with Jose Cruz? Is it just small sample size that puts him at the top of RF and the bottom of CF rankings?
The Reds' pitching is bad: so is the defense. It's all on merit.
I would think that would be a big factor regarding Jose Cruz.
I think Cruz's defensive stats can be attributed to injury. He hurt his back early in the season while playing CF for Arizona. Towards the end of the season, he was playing mainly RF for the Dodgers. There was a dramatic change in his batting average. My guess is that reflected him returning to health.