Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
February 23, 2006
Probabilistic Model of Range, 2005, Runs Created Against Rightfielders

We continue the run through the positions with the rightfielders:

Probabilistic Model of Range, 2005, Runs Created Against Rightfielders, Original Model (minimum 200 fieldable balls in play)
PlayerFieldable Balls In PlayActual Outs by FielderPredicted Outs by FielderRCAPredicted RCARCA/27 OutsPredicted RCA/27Runs Saved/27 Outs
Jose Cruz228 110 90.55 21.94 37.87 5.39 11.29 5.905
Jeff B Francoeur281 131 116.89 35.38 46.79 7.29 10.81 3.516
Chad A Tracy208 86 82.33 26.05 33.98 8.18 11.14 2.966
Jay Gibbons296 133 126.19 20.37 32.67 4.14 6.99 2.855
Nick T Swisher447 198 180.06 51.42 65.75 7.01 9.86 2.847
Vladimir Guerrero516 245 225.72 54.09 66.76 5.96 7.99 2.024
Trot Nixon567 240 234.77 63.85 79.64 7.18 9.16 1.975
Jeromy Burnitz664 303 291.75 80.84 97.71 7.20 9.04 1.839
Casey Blake610 287 280.95 57.37 74.09 5.40 7.12 1.723
Mike Cameron318 137 122.46 36.28 40.15 7.15 8.85 1.702
Jermaine Dye619 260 252.18 74.32 85.79 7.72 9.19 1.468
Magglio Ordonez309 139 136.15 38.65 45.16 7.51 8.96 1.447
Jason Lane516 225 210.46 67.10 73.21 8.05 9.39 1.340
Ichiro Suzuki771 383 361.02 63.59 76.00 4.48 5.68 1.201
Shawn Green522 232 218.32 73.14 75.97 8.51 9.40 0.883
Brian Giles651 295 277.54 92.24 95.67 8.44 9.31 0.864
Geoff Jenkins652 307 292.31 64.56 70.79 5.68 6.54 0.861
Bobby Abreu602 267 261.04 69.81 75.94 7.06 7.85 0.795
Victor I Diaz339 153 150.52 37.26 39.97 6.57 7.17 0.595
Richard Hidalgo398 174 169.72 55.95 57.57 8.68 9.16 0.476
Sammy Sosa289 121 124.99 32.99 35.60 7.36 7.69 0.329
Emil Brown579 243 252.59 76.05 81.67 8.45 8.73 0.280
Austin Kearns481 238 234.46 42.62 44.04 4.83 5.07 0.237
Jacque Jones592 262 256.70 76.89 76.34 7.92 8.03 0.105
Jose Guillen659 299 298.66 73.21 73.22 6.61 6.62 0.008
Aubrey Huff470 204 207.52 52.60 53.17 6.96 6.92 -0.044
Alexis I Rios563 246 256.53 63.82 65.76 7.01 6.92 -0.084
Gary Sheffield553 240 225.92 71.32 66.33 8.02 7.93 -0.096
Moises Alou231 90 97.28 28.55 30.27 8.56 8.40 -0.164
Juan Encarnacion521 216 213.79 68.31 66.12 8.54 8.35 -0.189
Brad B Hawpe379 148 156.44 60.51 62.62 11.04 10.81 -0.230
Michael Tucker230 91 94.94 33.88 32.77 10.05 9.32 -0.734
Larry Walker265 107 107.33 38.20 35.34 9.64 8.89 -0.750
Matt Lawton538 230 240.06 72.21 60.57 8.48 6.81 -1.664
Craig Monroe280 132 138.13 35.85 27.34 7.33 5.34 -1.989
Wily Mo Pena235 92 105.82 37.26 25.36 10.93 6.47 -4.464

There's a lot of good right field defense in the AL West as Swisher and Guerrero lead the regulars. And given Griffey's poor ratings, putting Willy Mo Pena next to him makes the Reds defense pretty poor. Maybe the Cincinnati pitching is a bit better than we think.

Update: In helping out a friend, I was looking at Sheffield's probability of getting an out vs. runs saved. As you can see, Sheffield does well if you just look at getting outs vs. not, but is negative when you look at runs saved. My first thought on this is that Gary is poor at cutting off balls in the gap. Does anyone have thoughts on this?
Comments

How much of Sheffield's numbers is attributed to Gary and how much relies on having a below-average centerfielder next to him for much of the season? Just a thought.

Posted by: Benjamin Kabak at February 23, 2006 05:12 PM

Sheff's problem always seems to be more with balls hit to the corner than in the gap. (at the Stadium anyways.)

Posted by: Jen at February 23, 2006 05:29 PM

Once again, Ichiro overrated... it's a trend

Posted by: Curious one at February 23, 2006 06:35 PM

from watching Sheff play for the Braves . . . I seem to remember that he often took a straight route to balls hit in the gap, the result being he made a lot of shoetop/diving grabs but sometimes let the ball get past him for extra bases. kind of an all or nothing approach.

Posted by: Jay at February 23, 2006 06:58 PM

David: With Sheffield, I think you may be seeing a ballhog factor. Bernie and Cano (and maybe Giambi?) both are the reverse of Sheffield: they look much worse on outs than runs. It looks like Gary is grabbing a lot of discretionary balls that others could have caught, but missing balls that really matter. Does that make sense, given the way you're calculating runs saved?

Posted by: Guy at February 23, 2006 08:48 PM

It's possible. I'll probably need to look at where Sheffield is missing the ball.

Posted by: David Pinto at February 23, 2006 08:49 PM

What's the deal with Jose Cruz? Is it just small sample size that puts him at the top of RF and the bottom of CF rankings?

Posted by: bruce at February 24, 2006 06:41 AM

The Reds' pitching is bad: so is the defense. It's all on merit.

Posted by: Shawn at February 24, 2006 06:58 AM

I would think that would be a big factor regarding Jose Cruz.

Posted by: David Pinto at February 24, 2006 07:12 AM

I think Cruz's defensive stats can be attributed to injury. He hurt his back early in the season while playing CF for Arizona. Towards the end of the season, he was playing mainly RF for the Dodgers. There was a dramatic change in his batting average. My guess is that reflected him returning to health.

Posted by: Jason at February 24, 2006 07:54 AM
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