Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
January 31, 2006
Probabilistic Model of Range, 2005, Rightfielders

Time to look at the range of the rightfielders.

Probabilistic Model of Range, Rightfielders, 2005, Original Model
PlayerInPlayActual OutsPredicted OutsDERPredicted DERDifference
Dustan Mohr1216103 80.81 0.085 0.066 0.01825
Jose Cruz1296110 90.55 0.085 0.070 0.01501
Mike Cameron1846137 122.46 0.074 0.066 0.00788
Jeff B Francoeur1837131 116.89 0.071 0.064 0.00768
Vladimir Guerrero3140245 225.72 0.078 0.072 0.00614
J.D. Drew121983 75.56 0.068 0.062 0.00610
Nick T Swisher2993197 179.73 0.066 0.060 0.00577
Ryan Langerhans113875 69.32 0.066 0.061 0.00499
Ichiro Suzuki4432383 361.02 0.086 0.081 0.00496
Brian Giles3704295 277.51 0.080 0.075 0.00472
Jason Lane3253225 210.46 0.069 0.065 0.00447
Shawn Green3225232 218.32 0.072 0.068 0.00424
Gary Sheffield3415240 225.92 0.070 0.066 0.00412
Geoff Jenkins3673307 292.30 0.084 0.080 0.00400
Jay Gibbons1710133 126.19 0.078 0.074 0.00398
Chad A Tracy117386 82.33 0.073 0.070 0.00313
Jeromy Burnitz3867303 291.75 0.078 0.075 0.00291
Jermaine Dye3718260 252.18 0.070 0.068 0.00210
Richard Hidalgo2288174 169.72 0.076 0.074 0.00187
Trot Nixon2991240 234.77 0.080 0.078 0.00175
Casey Blake3592287 280.95 0.080 0.078 0.00168
Raul Mondesi107067 65.26 0.063 0.061 0.00163
Jacque Jones3396262 256.70 0.077 0.076 0.00156
Bobby Abreu4018267 261.04 0.066 0.065 0.00148
Magglio Ordonez2154139 136.15 0.065 0.063 0.00132
Austin Kearns2891238 234.45 0.082 0.081 0.00123
Victor I Diaz2024153 150.52 0.076 0.074 0.00123
Juan Encarnacion3355216 213.79 0.064 0.064 0.00066
Kevin Mench102960 59.72 0.058 0.058 0.00027
Jose Guillen3708299 298.66 0.081 0.081 0.00009
Larry Walker1959107 107.33 0.055 0.055 -0.00017
Aubrey Huff2583204 207.52 0.079 0.080 -0.00136
Sammy Sosa1763121 124.99 0.069 0.071 -0.00226
Emil Brown3597243 252.59 0.068 0.070 -0.00267
Michael Tucker137291 94.94 0.066 0.069 -0.00287
Craig Monroe1952132 138.13 0.068 0.071 -0.00314
Alexis I Rios3310246 256.53 0.074 0.078 -0.00318
Matt Lawton2984230 240.06 0.077 0.080 -0.00337
Brad B Hawpe2259148 156.37 0.066 0.069 -0.00371
Moises Alou131690 97.28 0.068 0.074 -0.00553
Wily Mo Pena129092 105.82 0.071 0.082 -0.01071

Probabilistic Model of Range, Rightfielders, 2005, Smoothed Visiting Player Model
PlayerInPlayActual OutsPredicted OutsDERPredicted DERDifference
Dustan Mohr1216103 82.93 0.085 0.068 0.01650
Jose Cruz1296110 91.20 0.085 0.070 0.01451
Mike Cameron1846137 121.54 0.074 0.066 0.00837
Brian Giles3704295 270.20 0.080 0.073 0.00670
Nick T Swisher2993197 177.02 0.066 0.059 0.00668
Vladimir Guerrero3140245 224.45 0.078 0.071 0.00654
J.D. Drew121983 75.82 0.068 0.062 0.00589
Ryan Langerhans113875 68.59 0.066 0.060 0.00564
Jeff B Francoeur1837131 120.85 0.071 0.066 0.00552
Ichiro Suzuki4432383 359.66 0.086 0.081 0.00527
Jason Lane3253225 208.68 0.069 0.064 0.00502
Jay Gibbons1710133 124.72 0.078 0.073 0.00484
Geoff Jenkins3673307 290.57 0.084 0.079 0.00447
Shawn Green3225232 218.55 0.072 0.068 0.00417
Gary Sheffield3415240 226.94 0.070 0.066 0.00382
Chad A Tracy117386 82.09 0.073 0.070 0.00333
Trot Nixon2991240 231.46 0.080 0.077 0.00286
Casey Blake3592287 278.14 0.080 0.077 0.00247
Jeromy Burnitz3867303 294.00 0.078 0.076 0.00233
Jermaine Dye3718260 252.11 0.070 0.068 0.00212
Jacque Jones3396262 254.88 0.077 0.075 0.00210
Austin Kearns2891238 232.83 0.082 0.081 0.00179
Bobby Abreu4018267 260.54 0.066 0.065 0.00161
Richard Hidalgo2288174 170.57 0.076 0.075 0.00150
Magglio Ordonez2154139 136.09 0.065 0.063 0.00135
Victor I Diaz2024153 150.93 0.076 0.075 0.00102
Raul Mondesi107067 66.91 0.063 0.063 0.00009
Juan Encarnacion3355216 215.77 0.064 0.064 0.00007
Jose Guillen3708299 300.89 0.081 0.081 -0.00051
Larry Walker1959107 108.86 0.055 0.056 -0.00095
Kevin Mench102960 61.04 0.058 0.059 -0.00101
Sammy Sosa1763121 123.60 0.069 0.070 -0.00148
Aubrey Huff2583204 209.20 0.079 0.081 -0.00201
Michael Tucker137291 93.77 0.066 0.068 -0.00202
Brad B Hawpe2259148 154.40 0.066 0.068 -0.00283
Matt Lawton2984230 239.00 0.077 0.080 -0.00302
Alexis I Rios3310246 256.82 0.074 0.078 -0.00327
Craig Monroe1952132 139.11 0.068 0.071 -0.00364
Emil Brown3597243 256.30 0.068 0.071 -0.00370
Moises Alou131690 96.96 0.068 0.074 -0.00529
Wily Mo Pena129092 107.68 0.071 0.083 -0.01216

Mike Cameron's defense certainly translated well to right field. Dustin Mohr covered a lot of ground in spacious Coors Field. I'm always a bit surprised that Ichiro isn't right at the top of these lists. I wonder if he plays deep and lets some balls fall in front of him? Or maybe age caused him to lose a step.

Given this data, the Athletics may not wish to move Swisher to first base. It seems a waste to move a fielder who plays the outfield well to a less important defensive position.

Sammy Sosa's defense is another reason clubs are leary of signing the slugger, but if the Nationals sign him he won't be that much of a downgrade from the injured Jose Guillen.


Comments

The numbers lie. Lies and propaganda!

Victor I. Diaz couldn't catch a cold. No way he performed above expectations. Between the botched routes and dropped balls, there's no way he performed better than even...

That is, unless the "predicted outs" figure takes into account his speed and being new to the position, and generally bad play.

Posted by: bmc at January 31, 2006 10:38 AM

I think the expectations are more baseline than average. I didn't see Diaz even once, but he's right next to Mondesi, who was just plain awful, so that would suggest that he's in the right place; and the bottom two certainly match the evidence of my own eyes perfectly. My only surprise is Walker, and I was figuring he just must have had a stretch of playing really hurt in there that I missed.

Oh, and Dave-- yes Ichiro has definitely lost a step; its easy to see if you watch him a couple games in a row. Its easy to forget how old he is because we didn't see his prime... He's lost enough that he winds up between a couple of real young real good ones. :-)

Posted by: john r swinney at January 31, 2006 11:33 AM

More proof that Bobby Abreu's Gold Glove was not based on any actual fielding prowess...

Posted by: Dantheman at January 31, 2006 11:38 AM

The Hudson and Rios ratings suggest a need for some tinkering. Hudson took a disproportionate number of "choice of fielder" pop-ups to short right, with the result that Hudson's overall number is exceptionally high, while Rios' number is low.

Rios definitely has more range than Gary Sheffield. Remembering that Sheffield has an above-average rating and Cano's is appallingly low, it's likely that Sheffield takes a disproportionate number of the "choice of fielder" short files.

Posted by: Mike Green at January 31, 2006 02:02 PM

Mohr's ratings make me happy that the Red Sox signed him as a fourth outfielder/platoon mate for Nixon.

Posted by: David Dean at January 31, 2006 02:21 PM

"I'm always a bit surprised that Ichiro isn't right at the top of these lists. I wonder if he plays deep and lets some balls fall in front of him? Or maybe age caused him to lose a step."

I suspect these are both correct. Japanese players, as I understand it, are generally coached in a much more conservative manner, so it would make sense that Ichiro would allow more singles to prevent more doubles and triples.

If that's true, then these numbers are somewhat underrating him, aren't they?

Last year, there were graphs available for each player showing how they fared on balls to their left or right. Will those be available again this year?

Posted by: Vince at January 31, 2006 06:00 PM

Having watched Vlad in Anaheim for the past two years, I'm shocked he rates so highly. He doesn't appear to get a good jump on batted balls, runs poor routes, and screws up alot of simple catches. And of course his throwing is deplorable, rarely if ever throwing to the cut-off man. Oftentimes, I've found myself wishing the more fundamentally sound Tim Salmon was still patrolling right field for the Halos, and Vlad was our DH.

Posted by: mr big 007 at January 31, 2006 07:39 PM

Mohr was indeed a nice pickup for the Sox. I'm also intrigued by Craig Breslow.

Posted by: Jason at January 31, 2006 08:50 PM

All you Mohr fans forget that he's a butcher with the bat on the road. That's the guy that you're going to be getting.

Posted by: sabernar at January 31, 2006 09:37 PM

I enjoy watching francoer for the braves last year. hope he continues to do well.

Posted by: Colin at February 1, 2006 02:35 AM

I'm always amused to read sabernar's anti-Sox opinions. Yeah, Mohr had a huge home/road split with the Rockies. But he's going to Fenway, not Petco or RFK. I took a look at park factors based on the games Mohr played in 2005 and for the 2006 Sox schedule, and Mohr's production should only drop around 7%. Furthermore, he'll likely be platooning with Nixon in RF and hitting mainly against lefties. In 2005, he had a .907 OPS against lefthanders, which would translate to a .843 OPS at Fenway. I'll gladly take that.

Posted by: BosoxBob at February 2, 2006 02:04 PM
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