January 31, 2006
Probabilistic Model of Range, 2005, Rightfielders
Time to look at the range of the rightfielders.
Probabilistic Model of Range, Rightfielders, 2005, Original Model
Player | InPlay | Actual Outs | Predicted Outs | DER | Predicted DER | Difference |
Dustan Mohr | 1216 | 103 | 80.81 | 0.085 | 0.066 | 0.01825 |
Jose Cruz | 1296 | 110 | 90.55 | 0.085 | 0.070 | 0.01501 |
Mike Cameron | 1846 | 137 | 122.46 | 0.074 | 0.066 | 0.00788 |
Jeff B Francoeur | 1837 | 131 | 116.89 | 0.071 | 0.064 | 0.00768 |
Vladimir Guerrero | 3140 | 245 | 225.72 | 0.078 | 0.072 | 0.00614 |
J.D. Drew | 1219 | 83 | 75.56 | 0.068 | 0.062 | 0.00610 |
Nick T Swisher | 2993 | 197 | 179.73 | 0.066 | 0.060 | 0.00577 |
Ryan Langerhans | 1138 | 75 | 69.32 | 0.066 | 0.061 | 0.00499 |
Ichiro Suzuki | 4432 | 383 | 361.02 | 0.086 | 0.081 | 0.00496 |
Brian Giles | 3704 | 295 | 277.51 | 0.080 | 0.075 | 0.00472 |
Jason Lane | 3253 | 225 | 210.46 | 0.069 | 0.065 | 0.00447 |
Shawn Green | 3225 | 232 | 218.32 | 0.072 | 0.068 | 0.00424 |
Gary Sheffield | 3415 | 240 | 225.92 | 0.070 | 0.066 | 0.00412 |
Geoff Jenkins | 3673 | 307 | 292.30 | 0.084 | 0.080 | 0.00400 |
Jay Gibbons | 1710 | 133 | 126.19 | 0.078 | 0.074 | 0.00398 |
Chad A Tracy | 1173 | 86 | 82.33 | 0.073 | 0.070 | 0.00313 |
Jeromy Burnitz | 3867 | 303 | 291.75 | 0.078 | 0.075 | 0.00291 |
Jermaine Dye | 3718 | 260 | 252.18 | 0.070 | 0.068 | 0.00210 |
Richard Hidalgo | 2288 | 174 | 169.72 | 0.076 | 0.074 | 0.00187 |
Trot Nixon | 2991 | 240 | 234.77 | 0.080 | 0.078 | 0.00175 |
Casey Blake | 3592 | 287 | 280.95 | 0.080 | 0.078 | 0.00168 |
Raul Mondesi | 1070 | 67 | 65.26 | 0.063 | 0.061 | 0.00163 |
Jacque Jones | 3396 | 262 | 256.70 | 0.077 | 0.076 | 0.00156 |
Bobby Abreu | 4018 | 267 | 261.04 | 0.066 | 0.065 | 0.00148 |
Magglio Ordonez | 2154 | 139 | 136.15 | 0.065 | 0.063 | 0.00132 |
Austin Kearns | 2891 | 238 | 234.45 | 0.082 | 0.081 | 0.00123 |
Victor I Diaz | 2024 | 153 | 150.52 | 0.076 | 0.074 | 0.00123 |
Juan Encarnacion | 3355 | 216 | 213.79 | 0.064 | 0.064 | 0.00066 |
Kevin Mench | 1029 | 60 | 59.72 | 0.058 | 0.058 | 0.00027 |
Jose Guillen | 3708 | 299 | 298.66 | 0.081 | 0.081 | 0.00009 |
Larry Walker | 1959 | 107 | 107.33 | 0.055 | 0.055 | -0.00017 |
Aubrey Huff | 2583 | 204 | 207.52 | 0.079 | 0.080 | -0.00136 |
Sammy Sosa | 1763 | 121 | 124.99 | 0.069 | 0.071 | -0.00226 |
Emil Brown | 3597 | 243 | 252.59 | 0.068 | 0.070 | -0.00267 |
Michael Tucker | 1372 | 91 | 94.94 | 0.066 | 0.069 | -0.00287 |
Craig Monroe | 1952 | 132 | 138.13 | 0.068 | 0.071 | -0.00314 |
Alexis I Rios | 3310 | 246 | 256.53 | 0.074 | 0.078 | -0.00318 |
Matt Lawton | 2984 | 230 | 240.06 | 0.077 | 0.080 | -0.00337 |
Brad B Hawpe | 2259 | 148 | 156.37 | 0.066 | 0.069 | -0.00371 |
Moises Alou | 1316 | 90 | 97.28 | 0.068 | 0.074 | -0.00553 |
Wily Mo Pena | 1290 | 92 | 105.82 | 0.071 | 0.082 | -0.01071 |
Probabilistic Model of Range, Rightfielders, 2005, Smoothed Visiting Player Model
Player | InPlay | Actual Outs | Predicted Outs | DER | Predicted DER | Difference |
Dustan Mohr | 1216 | 103 | 82.93 | 0.085 | 0.068 | 0.01650 |
Jose Cruz | 1296 | 110 | 91.20 | 0.085 | 0.070 | 0.01451 |
Mike Cameron | 1846 | 137 | 121.54 | 0.074 | 0.066 | 0.00837 |
Brian Giles | 3704 | 295 | 270.20 | 0.080 | 0.073 | 0.00670 |
Nick T Swisher | 2993 | 197 | 177.02 | 0.066 | 0.059 | 0.00668 |
Vladimir Guerrero | 3140 | 245 | 224.45 | 0.078 | 0.071 | 0.00654 |
J.D. Drew | 1219 | 83 | 75.82 | 0.068 | 0.062 | 0.00589 |
Ryan Langerhans | 1138 | 75 | 68.59 | 0.066 | 0.060 | 0.00564 |
Jeff B Francoeur | 1837 | 131 | 120.85 | 0.071 | 0.066 | 0.00552 |
Ichiro Suzuki | 4432 | 383 | 359.66 | 0.086 | 0.081 | 0.00527 |
Jason Lane | 3253 | 225 | 208.68 | 0.069 | 0.064 | 0.00502 |
Jay Gibbons | 1710 | 133 | 124.72 | 0.078 | 0.073 | 0.00484 |
Geoff Jenkins | 3673 | 307 | 290.57 | 0.084 | 0.079 | 0.00447 |
Shawn Green | 3225 | 232 | 218.55 | 0.072 | 0.068 | 0.00417 |
Gary Sheffield | 3415 | 240 | 226.94 | 0.070 | 0.066 | 0.00382 |
Chad A Tracy | 1173 | 86 | 82.09 | 0.073 | 0.070 | 0.00333 |
Trot Nixon | 2991 | 240 | 231.46 | 0.080 | 0.077 | 0.00286 |
Casey Blake | 3592 | 287 | 278.14 | 0.080 | 0.077 | 0.00247 |
Jeromy Burnitz | 3867 | 303 | 294.00 | 0.078 | 0.076 | 0.00233 |
Jermaine Dye | 3718 | 260 | 252.11 | 0.070 | 0.068 | 0.00212 |
Jacque Jones | 3396 | 262 | 254.88 | 0.077 | 0.075 | 0.00210 |
Austin Kearns | 2891 | 238 | 232.83 | 0.082 | 0.081 | 0.00179 |
Bobby Abreu | 4018 | 267 | 260.54 | 0.066 | 0.065 | 0.00161 |
Richard Hidalgo | 2288 | 174 | 170.57 | 0.076 | 0.075 | 0.00150 |
Magglio Ordonez | 2154 | 139 | 136.09 | 0.065 | 0.063 | 0.00135 |
Victor I Diaz | 2024 | 153 | 150.93 | 0.076 | 0.075 | 0.00102 |
Raul Mondesi | 1070 | 67 | 66.91 | 0.063 | 0.063 | 0.00009 |
Juan Encarnacion | 3355 | 216 | 215.77 | 0.064 | 0.064 | 0.00007 |
Jose Guillen | 3708 | 299 | 300.89 | 0.081 | 0.081 | -0.00051 |
Larry Walker | 1959 | 107 | 108.86 | 0.055 | 0.056 | -0.00095 |
Kevin Mench | 1029 | 60 | 61.04 | 0.058 | 0.059 | -0.00101 |
Sammy Sosa | 1763 | 121 | 123.60 | 0.069 | 0.070 | -0.00148 |
Aubrey Huff | 2583 | 204 | 209.20 | 0.079 | 0.081 | -0.00201 |
Michael Tucker | 1372 | 91 | 93.77 | 0.066 | 0.068 | -0.00202 |
Brad B Hawpe | 2259 | 148 | 154.40 | 0.066 | 0.068 | -0.00283 |
Matt Lawton | 2984 | 230 | 239.00 | 0.077 | 0.080 | -0.00302 |
Alexis I Rios | 3310 | 246 | 256.82 | 0.074 | 0.078 | -0.00327 |
Craig Monroe | 1952 | 132 | 139.11 | 0.068 | 0.071 | -0.00364 |
Emil Brown | 3597 | 243 | 256.30 | 0.068 | 0.071 | -0.00370 |
Moises Alou | 1316 | 90 | 96.96 | 0.068 | 0.074 | -0.00529 |
Wily Mo Pena | 1290 | 92 | 107.68 | 0.071 | 0.083 | -0.01216 |
Mike Cameron's defense certainly translated well to right field. Dustin Mohr covered a lot of ground in spacious Coors Field. I'm always a bit surprised that Ichiro isn't right at the top of these lists. I wonder if he plays deep and lets some balls fall in front of him? Or maybe age caused him to lose a step.
Given this data, the Athletics may not wish to move Swisher to first base. It seems a waste to move a fielder who plays the outfield well to a less important defensive position.
Sammy Sosa's defense is another reason clubs are leary of signing the slugger, but if the Nationals sign him he won't be that much of a downgrade from the injured Jose Guillen.
The numbers lie. Lies and propaganda!
Victor I. Diaz couldn't catch a cold. No way he performed above expectations. Between the botched routes and dropped balls, there's no way he performed better than even...
That is, unless the "predicted outs" figure takes into account his speed and being new to the position, and generally bad play.
I think the expectations are more baseline than average. I didn't see Diaz even once, but he's right next to Mondesi, who was just plain awful, so that would suggest that he's in the right place; and the bottom two certainly match the evidence of my own eyes perfectly. My only surprise is Walker, and I was figuring he just must have had a stretch of playing really hurt in there that I missed.
Oh, and Dave-- yes Ichiro has definitely lost a step; its easy to see if you watch him a couple games in a row. Its easy to forget how old he is because we didn't see his prime... He's lost enough that he winds up between a couple of real young real good ones. :-)
More proof that Bobby Abreu's Gold Glove was not based on any actual fielding prowess...
The Hudson and Rios ratings suggest a need for some tinkering. Hudson took a disproportionate number of "choice of fielder" pop-ups to short right, with the result that Hudson's overall number is exceptionally high, while Rios' number is low.
Rios definitely has more range than Gary Sheffield. Remembering that Sheffield has an above-average rating and Cano's is appallingly low, it's likely that Sheffield takes a disproportionate number of the "choice of fielder" short files.
Mohr's ratings make me happy that the Red Sox signed him as a fourth outfielder/platoon mate for Nixon.
"I'm always a bit surprised that Ichiro isn't right at the top of these lists. I wonder if he plays deep and lets some balls fall in front of him? Or maybe age caused him to lose a step."
I suspect these are both correct. Japanese players, as I understand it, are generally coached in a much more conservative manner, so it would make sense that Ichiro would allow more singles to prevent more doubles and triples.
If that's true, then these numbers are somewhat underrating him, aren't they?
Last year, there were graphs available for each player showing how they fared on balls to their left or right. Will those be available again this year?
Having watched Vlad in Anaheim for the past two years, I'm shocked he rates so highly. He doesn't appear to get a good jump on batted balls, runs poor routes, and screws up alot of simple catches. And of course his throwing is deplorable, rarely if ever throwing to the cut-off man. Oftentimes, I've found myself wishing the more fundamentally sound Tim Salmon was still patrolling right field for the Halos, and Vlad was our DH.
Mohr was indeed a nice pickup for the Sox. I'm also intrigued by Craig Breslow.
All you Mohr fans forget that he's a butcher with the bat on the road. That's the guy that you're going to be getting.
I enjoy watching francoer for the braves last year. hope he continues to do well.
I'm always amused to read sabernar's anti-Sox opinions. Yeah, Mohr had a huge home/road split with the Rockies. But he's going to Fenway, not Petco or RFK. I took a look at park factors based on the games Mohr played in 2005 and for the 2006 Sox schedule, and Mohr's production should only drop around 7%. Furthermore, he'll likely be platooning with Nixon in RF and hitting mainly against lefties. In 2005, he had a .907 OPS against lefthanders, which would translate to a .843 OPS at Fenway. I'll gladly take that.