As a GM I somwhat agree but I still think that the most important measuring stick of an offseasonshould be "Are you a better team?" and not necessarily "Did you save money maintaining a good team?". How cheap your CF or SS is doesn't matter when the games start (even if they do matter down the road).

I would amend my above statement for smaller market teams where how good you are depends a lot more on saving money. Boston isn't one of those teams.

Peter Gammons disagrees and thinks Boston will be better than they were last year. See his ESPN.com piece.

Lowell, Crisp and Gonzalez at third, center and shortstop just isn't as good a combination as Mueller, Damon and Renteria. It isn't really a big step-up defensively, if it is one at all...at least by DER here or FRAR over at BP.

Yet the Sox have a deep bullpen that can also provide switch-over to the rotation, and Schilling is likely to be healthier and much more effective this year. [As a long aside, I think that the Beckett trade is overrated- his shoulder and blister problems have prevented him from pitching as much as one would like...his 179 innings last year was a career high, and his 3.38 ERA belies his home/road split of 2.47/4.31, which gives a good sense of the benefit he received from pitching in Pro-Player Stadium. I'd expect his ERA in the A.L. to go up anyway...and pitching half of his starts in Fenway, I'm betting he ends up going 28 starts, pitching 170 innings, and clocking a 4.20 ERA. Solid, to be sure, but not the ace he's been touted to be.] Nevertheless, Sox pitching in 2006 stands to be a much greater strength than it was in 2005, with their crop of minor-league talent seasoned and ready.

Big Sox questions on the year:

1) Does Ortiz maintain his beastly excellence? (BP's PECOTA offers a resounding "Yes")
2) Does Manny's batting average/OBP blip from last season indicate the initiation of his decline phase, or does he continue to mash all he sees? (PECOTA sez BLIP! Manny's still a monster, hitting .296/.386/.570 with 39 dingers)
3) Will Mike Lowell rebound to a semblance of his 2003-2005 self? (PECOTA: .270/.332/.457 with 18 homers, not too shabby)
4) Is Schilling healthy, and can he remain so? (PECOTA has him blended as a reliever/starter, which is way off...his peripherals look solid, though, with 7+ K/9 vs. less than 2 BB/9).

I think the Sox are still in the thick of it in the A.L. East...it should be a good season, between the Yanks, the Sox, and the Jays. And here's to hoping that the Devil Rays, er...Double A's? Balkaneers? whatever they're called, are motivated by their new, improved name to climb up out of the basement and show their minor league skills really do translate to the bigs!

DER/FRAR aside, I'm gonna disagree and argue the Sox D has certainly improved.

Lowell and Mueller would be a defensive wash, with the edge to Lowell. Crisp is certainly an upgrade to Damon (all Damon had was range). And anyone, not just a gold glover like A-Gonz, is an upgrade from Renteria of last year (who, at Fenway, wasn't going away). Plus a healthier Trot Nixon, an upgrade in Loretta, and Youkilis instead of Millar?

Much better!

I give the Sox FO mixed grades over the offseason. If you look at the Renteria/Crisp deals as one, it was a very good combined deal for Boston. Although Beckett is overrated, the Beckett deal is reasonable, good if Lowell rebounds. The Loretta deal was fine. Letting Damon go was absolutely the correct move.

My only 2 complaints over the season are not offering arb to Myers and signing Gonzalez. Myers still has value as a LOOGY and a year arb award would not have been a terrible drain on the team resources. Not even offering it means we only get the Yank's 1st pick, not their 1st and 3rd, as well as not getting a second round sandwich pick.

And they wasted more $ on the Gonzalez signing than they saved on Myers. Cora and Gonzalez are extremely equivalent players. With the glove, they have comparable reputations and stats. They have an identical 238 EqA. Cora's mix of skills on the offensive side, more OBP, less power, are more valuable to a strong lineup like the Sox than are Gonzalez's skills. And Francona's "proven veteran" obsession means that Gonzalez will block Pedroia, despite the huge gulf in ability and long term contribution.

Seamus says that saving $ is not important for Boston. That is nonsense. They are trying to compete with the Yankees with less than 60% of the Yankees budget. They are closer to the Pirates in payroll than to the Yankees. They did not put Manny on waivers because he is not a valuable player. It was because his salary was a drain on the ability to do other things.

I would read Gammons column but I don't have a subscription!

'It's clear now that when the Red Sox signed Renteria to a $10 million a year contract, they expected him to return to his mid-20's win share form.'

I'm sure the words 'win shares' were never uttered or considered.

The Red Sox chances hinge on 2 guys Schilling and Foulke. They need them both at '04 levels.

Let me sum up the Gammons article...the Sox are going to be great and they have a ton of potential if everything goes as planned. (See that, I don't even need a subscription either).

Cora and Gonzalez are extremely equivalent players

Couldn't agree more, Craig. The Gonzalez singing looks like a complete waste. Cora and AG are near replicas. And, if they want a bit more offense, Graffanino is perfectly capable of playing SS.

It's as if the Sox are not willing to "risk" playing someone w/o tons of experience at the position. But, by doing so, they're taking on more risk than they realize. Reminds me of the prototypical investor who is only willing to put his money in "safe" blue-chip stocks. Just look at how well that turned out last year...

FYI: Crisp plays a horrendous CF. His numbers in LF are above average, but his 180+ games in CF show him to be a poor centerfielder. I don't see how this Boston team is as good as their 2005 team. They really didn't upgrade any position, they have too many weak positions, and their old team is a year older and a little more fragile.

Oh yeah, and saying that signing Gonzalez is a good move because he's cheaper, and just as good, as Renteria, is disingenuous. Gonzalez sucks, just like Renteria did last year. If you're going to fill a position, at least sign a good player. How many slick field/no hit SS are there out there for the league minimum? Probably several. So why sign Gonzalez for $3M?

Sorry, one more thing. Lee Sinins has this quote about Gonzalez:

"Gonzalez is closing in on 3500 career PA (he has 3488). When he reaches that figure, he'll rank 5th in the past half century for worst OBA vs. the league average among players with that many PA."

That's a pretty long history of suckiness. All for $3M.

And #6 on that list? None other than John Flaherty, the Sox's backup catcher.

Given that Bill James works for the Red Sox, I would not be surprised if Win Shares is uttered quite a bit in the Red Sox front office.

Tito will not play Cora against southpaws and apparently Tony G and Machado are not options either which is sad. If auto out SS plays everyday, we should be planning on him killing a ton of potential big innings. The Sox offense should look like last season’s – everyone get on-base/don’t make an out to maximize the number of chance Manny and Ortiz can do damage. The big two and Tek are the only players last season to SLG >450. I’m not confident that Nixon and Lowell can regain past form.

the al east looks to be watered down. good luck with matt clement hehehe

Sorry, David. I'm an ESPN insider, so here's some of what he says - Crisp's 2006 projections are .790 OPS, 13 homers, Damon .786, 12 hr's. Loretta is .769. Last year's 2Bmen hit .729. Youkillis .837, better than Millar's .809. Lowell about the same as Mueller, with slightly more homers. As you said, Renteria and Gonzalez are basically even. Shilling is back, you have Wells, Beckett, Clement, Wakefield, Arroyo, and Palpabon. And new power arms in the pen. So it's certainly conceivable that they'll be just as good, if not better.

"here's some of what he says - Crisp's 2006 projections are .790 OPS, 13 homers, Damon .786, 12 hr's. Loretta is .769. Last year's 2Bmen hit .729. Youkillis .837, better than Millar's .809. "

Does the organization who produces such predictions every report their error rate? I imagine they don't unless it's very low but it would be interesting to know.

Those are the Bill James projections, and they've come under fire lately.

Can Gonzalez bunt and hit to the right side of the infield? I'll gladly give up 10 points in average for a SS that can move the runners over.

"Those are the Bill James projections, and they've come under fire lately. "

Why? If they're consistently wrong, then I can see why. But if James' prediction are relatively accurate (what's accurate, I really don't know but let's say about 70 percent of time), screw the criticism. The tool accomplishes its purpose.

Where can you look up James' predictions. I think it would be fun to look up his 2005 predictions and then test his predictions against actual performance.

they should have just gone with Cora at SS...he can turn that DP like no one today....he was getting better every year in Los Angeles before they mistakenly committed to Izturis, and Cleveland was just not a good place for Alex to be. In Boston I thought he would exceed what he did in L.A.....he's great defensively at ss and 2b and is just fundamentally sound. He's not gonna break any batting records but I'm sure the pitchers would appreciate his glove behind them.....give him a chance...he can lead-off...bat second or bring up the end in the 9-1-2 combo....he's probably better suited for the National League, but T.Franc knows what he's got in him and thinks that's he's valueable......forget Gonzo...it was a bad signing.

I agree with many of your individual points, especially about Gonzalez.

However, I think you are ignoring many issues which make the Sox better this year.

Comparing year to year,

no returning player was notably above expected levels in 05, except Timlin, so I assume they average out to the same. They may have a slight decline with Trot, Manny and Tek all being the wrong side of 30. Of course Manny had one of the most unlucky batting years in baseball last year, so I actually expect an improvement there.

CF is probably a slight down from last year. Crisp will hit about as well or probably slightly better than Damon did in 05, but is a somewhat worse fielder (but Damon was less than spectacular last year and has a noodle arm).

SS is a wash. It sucked last year and will this year until Pedroia getst he job. At least they might upgrade to Pedroia mid-season.

3B is probably a slight down, but could be anywhere from much better to much worse. Who knows whether Lowell can rebound or not.

1B is a definite upgrade. Millar was awful last year.

2B is a definite upgrade. Bellhorn was awful last year. Loretta is injury prone, but a typical year of Graffanino is still better than his above average half year combined with the abysmal half year of Bellhorn.

Backup catcher (Bard) is a little worse and Trot's platoon mate (Mohr) is a little better.

Net I see a slightly better team for position players in 06 than in 05. The two are close enough (at least pre-Pedroia) and Mike Lowell's performance unpredictable enough that it could swing it either way.

For the starting pitching, Beckett effectively replaces Wade Miller and Papelbon replaces Jeremi Gonzalez. The other starters are identical. Schilling could still be awful, in which case they are much better. Or he could be rebound, in which case they are massively better.

In the pen, I assume Timlin reverts closer to career norms as an above average setup man. Setting Foulke aside for a minute, last year almost everyone else who started the year in the pen was awful. This year, they have plenty of arms, everyone who should be league average or better (Tavares, Seanez, Riske, Hansen, Delcarmen are not bad as pitchers 3-7 in the pen). Ignoring Foulke, this is a huge upgrade over what the garbage they had out there most of 05.

If Foulke is toast, they will presumably abandon him faster than last year, and thus take less damage and be even further ahead of 05. If Foulke rebounds to his worst season in 99-04, the Sox add another several games.

The pitching should be a major upgrade over last year even if neither Schilling nor Foulke bounce back. If either or both do, they could easily be 10 games better than last year.

The Sox baseline should be regarded as something like 90 wins from last year, consistent with their 3rd order winning percentage. Unless one of Manny, Ortiz or Tek takes a major injury or they take multiple injuries to the same position, I expect them to win 95-99 games, depending on Lowell, Schilling and Foulke.

Correction - they plan to use John Flaherty as Tek's backup.

And Millar actually had an OPS+ of 100 last season, which is spot on average (though probably below average for first basemen).

And Crisp is a butcher in CF. He's good in LF and horrible in CF (180+ games). His Rate2 is somewhere around 93 for his career.

sabernar -

Crisp is actually a career 94 rate2, Damon was a rate2 97 last year. Damon also had a 874 ZR last year compared to Crisp's 866 career ZR in CF. It is a drop off, but not a massive one. As I noted above.

League average offense is awful for a 1B. Millar was 19th of 21 qualifying 1B in OPS. Youkilis had a 52 point higher OPS than Millar last year. Consistent with his previous ML and minors statistics. And the growth is almost all in OBP, the far more important component of OPS. And Youkilis is expected to be a better defensive 1B.

i love coco, what a great name. I hope the yanks and soxs flop and the blue jays win the east.