Baseball Musings: Probabilistic Model of Range, 2005, Third Basemen and Grounders

January 29, 2006

Probabilistic Model of Range, 2005, Third Basemen and Grounders

Here's the followup to yesterday's overall numbers for third basemen. This is just how they did on ground balls.

Probabilistic Model of Range, Third Basemen, 2005, Original Model, Groundballs Only
Player	InPlay	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Difference
Pedro Feliz	804	140	113.01	0.174	0.141	0.03357
Chone Figgins	584	93	74.12	0.159	0.127	0.03233
Freddy Sanchez	715	134	111.00	0.187	0.155	0.03216
Scott Rolen	799	144	118.75	0.180	0.149	0.03161
Wilson Betemit	684	95	76.06	0.139	0.111	0.02769
Corey Koskie	1034	157	130.17	0.152	0.126	0.02594
Edwin Encarnacion	682	115	97.66	0.169	0.143	0.02543
David Bell	1796	299	256.81	0.166	0.143	0.02349
Dallas L McPherson	615	84	69.57	0.137	0.113	0.02347
Aaron Boone	1764	291	250.30	0.165	0.142	0.02307
Morgan Ensberg	1848	297	256.48	0.161	0.139	0.02193
Abraham O Nunez	1195	202	176.25	0.169	0.147	0.02155
Joe Crede	1552	247	214.99	0.159	0.139	0.02062
Bill Mueller	1716	263	228.79	0.153	0.133	0.01994
Rob Mackowiak	665	119	106.21	0.179	0.160	0.01923
Melvin Mora	1907	297	260.49	0.156	0.137	0.01915
Adrian Beltre	1862	274	240.36	0.147	0.129	0.01806
Eric Chavez	1846	297	267.03	0.161	0.145	0.01624
Alex Rodriguez	2153	288	253.18	0.134	0.118	0.01617
Alex S Gonzalez	1070	170	153.13	0.159	0.143	0.01576
Brandon Inge	2135	375	341.64	0.176	0.160	0.01563
David A Wright	2023	330	298.97	0.163	0.148	0.01534
Aramis Ramirez	1449	216	194.59	0.149	0.134	0.01478
Garrett Atkins	1781	261	234.69	0.147	0.132	0.01477
Mike Lowell	1648	242	222.66	0.147	0.135	0.01173
Mike Cuddyer	1272	190	175.91	0.149	0.138	0.01108
Sean Burroughs	902	143	133.98	0.159	0.149	0.01000
Mark T Teahen	1639	238	221.79	0.145	0.135	0.00989
Chipper Jones	1281	166	153.38	0.130	0.120	0.00985
Bill Hall	607	87	81.13	0.143	0.134	0.00967
Shea Hillenbrand	641	95	89.06	0.148	0.139	0.00926
Hank Blalock	2180	298	283.48	0.137	0.130	0.00666
Russell Branyan	584	81	77.44	0.139	0.133	0.00610
Troy Glaus	1949	313	305.81	0.161	0.157	0.00369
Edgardo Alfonzo	1183	157	154.04	0.133	0.130	0.00250
Vinny Castilla	1582	208	207.62	0.131	0.131	0.00024
Joe Randa	1704	232	232.50	0.136	0.136	-0.00029
Jorge L Cantu	638	89	91.77	0.139	0.144	-0.00434

Probabilistic Model of Range, Third Baseman, 2005, Smoothed Visiting Player Model, Ground Balls Only
Player	InPlay	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Difference
Pedro Feliz	804	140	110.42	0.174	0.137	0.03679
Freddy Sanchez	715	134	108.00	0.187	0.151	0.03636
Scott Rolen	799	144	117.29	0.180	0.147	0.03342
Chone Figgins	584	93	74.16	0.159	0.127	0.03226
Wilson Betemit	684	95	75.35	0.139	0.110	0.02873
David Bell	1796	299	252.02	0.166	0.140	0.02616
Dallas L McPherson	615	84	67.98	0.137	0.111	0.02605
Edwin Encarnacion	682	115	98.20	0.169	0.144	0.02463
Corey Koskie	1034	157	133.23	0.152	0.129	0.02298
Bill Mueller	1716	263	223.71	0.153	0.130	0.02290
Aaron Boone	1764	291	250.89	0.165	0.142	0.02274
Abraham O Nunez	1195	202	175.09	0.169	0.147	0.02252
Morgan Ensberg	1848	297	255.55	0.161	0.138	0.02243
Joe Crede	1552	247	213.18	0.159	0.137	0.02179
Rob Mackowiak	665	119	105.84	0.179	0.159	0.01979
Adrian Beltre	1862	274	237.41	0.147	0.128	0.01965
Alex Rodriguez	2153	288	246.82	0.134	0.115	0.01913
Melvin Mora	1907	297	261.04	0.156	0.137	0.01886
Alex S Gonzalez	1070	170	151.51	0.159	0.142	0.01728
Eric Chavez	1846	297	266.80	0.161	0.145	0.01636
Brandon Inge	2135	375	344.59	0.176	0.161	0.01424
Garrett Atkins	1781	261	235.96	0.147	0.132	0.01406
Aramis Ramirez	1449	216	195.81	0.149	0.135	0.01393
David A Wright	2023	330	302.82	0.163	0.150	0.01343
Chipper Jones	1281	166	151.03	0.130	0.118	0.01169
Mike Cuddyer	1272	190	175.29	0.149	0.138	0.01156
Mike Lowell	1648	242	223.36	0.147	0.136	0.01131
Bill Hall	607	87	80.54	0.143	0.133	0.01064
Mark T Teahen	1639	238	221.57	0.145	0.135	0.01002
Hank Blalock	2180	298	279.49	0.137	0.128	0.00849
Shea Hillenbrand	641	95	89.71	0.148	0.140	0.00825
Sean Burroughs	902	143	136.63	0.159	0.151	0.00707
Edgardo Alfonzo	1183	157	151.30	0.133	0.128	0.00481
Russell Branyan	584	81	78.22	0.139	0.134	0.00476
Troy Glaus	1949	313	312.76	0.161	0.160	0.00012
Joe Randa	1704	232	232.83	0.136	0.137	-0.00049
Vinny Castilla	1582	208	214.58	0.131	0.136	-0.00416
Jorge L Cantu	638	89	92.07	0.139	0.144	-0.00480

This list doesn't look too different to me. The biggest difference is that Encarnacion moves down, and Pedro Feliz takes over the top spot. There is still a huge gap between Koskie and Glaus.

Posted by David Pinto at 02:25 PM | Probabilistic Model of Range | TrackBack (0)

Comments

David:
I know you're generally comfortable with results suggesting the players at a specific position did better/worse than expected as a group. But even so, these results are surprising. On average, the 3B are 22 outs better than expected overall, 20 outs better on GBs only. More than half the gap btwn predicted and actual outs in MLB comes from 3B alone. Seems worth digging into the 3B grounders, to see why the model expects such a lower out % there.....

Posted by: Guy at January 29, 2006 05:07 PM

re: third base defensive data

I recognize there are problems with interpreting third base defensive data, which are discussed at length in WIN SHARES by bill james, but this is an outstanding piece of empirical work.

I am surprised but not shocked to see that David Bell, despite making a lot of errors, is actually getting to a lot of balls and making a lot of outs, and is therefore a better than average third basebman according to this hierarchy, a lot closer to Scott Rolen than to say, Joe Randa or Vinney Castilla.

Perhaps infield defense accounts for a lot of why the Phillies have been winning a lot of games the past two years without having dominant strikeout pitchers. Rollins and Bell are an excellent left side infield defensive combination.

Adding Aaron Rowand to Center Field, with Abreu already in RF, and Burrell plays a good LF, will only add to the defense.

--Arthur John Kyriazis
--Philly

Posted by: arthur john kyriazis at January 30, 2006 04:39 PM