Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
January 28, 2006
Probabilistic Model of Range, 2005,Third Basemen

It was a very good year for third basemen according to both models. Almost all performed above expectation:

Probabilistic Model of Range, Third Basemen, 2005, Original Model
PlayerInPlayActual OutsPredicted OutsDERPredicted DERDifference
Edwin Encarnacion1538159 128.09 0.103 0.083 0.02010
Chone Figgins1334121 97.95 0.091 0.073 0.01728
Pedro Feliz1812176 144.87 0.097 0.080 0.01718
Wilson Betemit1353118 96.76 0.087 0.072 0.01570
Freddy Sanchez1488162 138.96 0.109 0.093 0.01549
Scott Rolen1447160 138.73 0.111 0.096 0.01470
Corey Koskie2121196 169.20 0.092 0.080 0.01263
David Bell3786388 340.31 0.102 0.090 0.01260
Morgan Ensberg3738374 327.06 0.100 0.087 0.01256
Abraham O Nunez2249239 211.24 0.106 0.094 0.01234
Brandon Inge4416474 426.52 0.107 0.097 0.01075
Rob Mackowiak1391147 132.27 0.106 0.095 0.01059
Aaron Boone3776364 324.05 0.096 0.086 0.01058
Alex S Gonzalez2522228 202.89 0.090 0.080 0.00996
Joe Crede3378324 290.40 0.096 0.086 0.00995
Alex Rodriguez4338373 330.67 0.086 0.076 0.00976
Bill Mueller3859334 296.75 0.087 0.077 0.00965
Dallas L McPherson1431111 97.37 0.078 0.068 0.00953
Melvin Mora3939378 340.87 0.096 0.087 0.00943
Adrian Beltre4246375 337.14 0.088 0.079 0.00892
Chipper Jones2600223 201.98 0.086 0.078 0.00809
Eric Chavez3965389 359.65 0.098 0.091 0.00740
Mark T Teahen3464321 295.69 0.093 0.085 0.00731
Mike Lowell3376312 288.76 0.092 0.086 0.00688
David A Wright4325414 386.30 0.096 0.089 0.00641
Aramis Ramirez2920268 251.97 0.092 0.086 0.00549
Garrett Atkins3714315 295.69 0.085 0.080 0.00520
Sean Burroughs1938187 177.09 0.096 0.091 0.00511
Jeff Cirillo103994 88.87 0.090 0.086 0.00494
Shea Hillenbrand1369122 115.98 0.089 0.085 0.00439
Bill Hall1338114 108.45 0.085 0.081 0.00415
Edgardo Alfonzo2588215 206.13 0.083 0.080 0.00343
Mike Cuddyer2589230 221.44 0.089 0.086 0.00331
Russell Branyan1341109 104.90 0.081 0.078 0.00306
Troy Glaus4010392 379.78 0.098 0.095 0.00305
Hank Blalock4500378 364.42 0.084 0.081 0.00302
Joe Randa3850330 322.49 0.086 0.084 0.00195
Vinny Castilla3651325 320.17 0.089 0.088 0.00132
Jorge L Cantu1557108 119.34 0.069 0.077 -0.00728


Probabilistic Model of Range, Third Baseman, 2005, Smoothed Visiting Player Model
PlayerInPlayActual OutsPredicted OutsDERPredicted DERDifference
Pedro Feliz1812176 141.92 0.097 0.078 0.01881
Edwin Encarnacion1538159 131.03 0.103 0.085 0.01819
Freddy Sanchez1488162 135.54 0.109 0.091 0.01778
Chone Figgins1334121 97.83 0.091 0.073 0.01737
Wilson Betemit1353118 96.20 0.087 0.071 0.01611
Scott Rolen1447160 136.97 0.111 0.095 0.01592
David Bell3786388 334.73 0.102 0.088 0.01407
Abraham O Nunez2249239 209.33 0.106 0.093 0.01319
Morgan Ensberg3738374 327.66 0.100 0.088 0.01240
Bill Mueller3859334 287.50 0.087 0.075 0.01205
Rob Mackowiak1391147 131.06 0.106 0.094 0.01146
Corey Koskie2121196 172.56 0.092 0.081 0.01105
Alex Rodriguez4338373 325.12 0.086 0.075 0.01104
Alex S Gonzalez2522228 200.31 0.090 0.079 0.01098
Dallas L McPherson1431111 95.51 0.078 0.067 0.01082
Aaron Boone3776364 323.99 0.096 0.086 0.01060
Joe Crede3378324 289.27 0.096 0.086 0.01028
Brandon Inge4416474 430.06 0.107 0.097 0.00995
Chipper Jones2600223 198.93 0.086 0.077 0.00926
Adrian Beltre4246375 335.79 0.088 0.079 0.00923
Melvin Mora3939378 342.39 0.096 0.087 0.00904
Mike Lowell3376312 285.64 0.092 0.085 0.00781
Eric Chavez3965389 360.02 0.098 0.091 0.00731
Mark T Teahen3464321 295.83 0.093 0.085 0.00727
David A Wright4325414 391.13 0.096 0.090 0.00529
Bill Hall1338114 107.69 0.085 0.080 0.00472
Garrett Atkins3714315 297.58 0.085 0.080 0.00469
Aramis Ramirez2920268 254.57 0.092 0.087 0.00460
Edgardo Alfonzo2588215 204.03 0.083 0.079 0.00424
Jeff Cirillo103994 89.88 0.090 0.087 0.00397
Mike Cuddyer2589230 220.11 0.089 0.085 0.00382
Shea Hillenbrand1369122 116.87 0.089 0.085 0.00375
Sean Burroughs1938187 179.89 0.096 0.093 0.00367
Hank Blalock4500378 362.63 0.084 0.081 0.00342
Russell Branyan1341109 104.64 0.081 0.078 0.00325
Joe Randa3850330 322.20 0.086 0.084 0.00203
Troy Glaus4010392 387.22 0.098 0.097 0.00119
Vinny Castilla3651325 327.58 0.089 0.090 -0.00071
Jorge L Cantu1557108 120.02 0.069 0.077 -0.00772

It looks like Vinny Castilla can no longer make up for his poor offense with his glove, while moving Chipper Jones back to third cost the Braves some good defense at the position from Benemit. This is the highest I've seen Chone Figgins on any of the charts so far. Third base is his position.

From the rankings here, the Red Sox down graded both defensively and offensively replacing Mueller with Lowell at third. And given how well Orlando Hudson ranked among second basemen, the Glaus trade was a defensive upgrade for the Diamondbacks.

As always, your comments are welcome.


Comments

National league third basemen dominate. Could that have something to with sacrifice bunts?

Posted by: phil schaefer at January 28, 2006 12:18 PM

Now where do we think ARod would fall (versus his peers) on the SS list if he was still a SS? On the one hand, he's got more experience at that position. On the other hand, SS is filled with better fielders than 3B. I was always under the impression that ARod was the best fielding SS in the game even just a couple years agp///

Posted by: Mike at January 28, 2006 01:13 PM

As I remember, Figgins had great PMR numbers at third last season as well. I rarely see defensive numbers so coordinated:

Of all AL 3b with at least 50 games last season, he led the league in defensive win shares, PMR, fielding pct, and was #2 in ZR.

Are UZR numbers out yet?

Posted by: Maxwell at January 28, 2006 01:14 PM

Excellent stuff, as always.

I know he didn't have many opportunities, but I wonder if you could report Andy Marte's PMR.

Posted by: JC at January 28, 2006 01:59 PM

I'm having trouble explaining to myself why Figgins' range is, comparatively speaking, so much better at third than second. Is it just a matter of the competition? Or is the skill set that different, e.g., immediate reaction versus quickness necessary to take a half-dozen steps before a grounder reaches the back of the infield dirt?

Posted by: Joel Jacobsen at January 28, 2006 02:26 PM

It's a good question, Joel. It could be that Figgins just doesn't have the ability to cover a lot of ground. I suppose it might also have something to do with the ball coming off at a different angle than at third base.

Posted by: David Pinto at January 28, 2006 02:29 PM

I haven't seen any PMR numbers for Figgins at 2B. Has he not sufficient chances?

Posted by: Maxwell at January 28, 2006 02:54 PM

Makes me think the Sox should put Youkilis @ 3B and move Lowell to 1B.

Posted by: Jason at January 28, 2006 03:07 PM

I'd love to see an aggregation of all the major defensive stats: PMR, Rate2, ZR, Win Shares, UZR, etc. If we did, we could then rate the players with respect to how they place in each stat (kind of like Neyer's Beane Count). Anyone interested?

Posted by: sabernar at January 28, 2006 06:04 PM

Figgins tends to play better at a position when he gets to play there often. He only played second base for a short time last season, so I don't know how much stock I'd put in his numbers there (he looked okay but not spectacular). In center field he has great range but poor instincts, leading him to jump for balls in places where the balls don't happen to be.

He's become very comfortable at third, and looks good there. But I think that if you went to him and said "you are now a full-time 2B" or "you are now a full-time CF", he would eventually put up good numbers at those positions. Bouncing between third and center every other day can't be easy.

Posted by: BHW at January 28, 2006 06:18 PM

does this mean cantu should be nothing more than a DH?

Posted by: tony flynn at January 29, 2006 03:35 AM

What interested me the most about the third basemen was that almost all of them made more plays than expected. I wonder why this is the case. Was it just a fluke year or is third base defense getting better? I've had a feeling for quite some time that baseball has been underrating the value of defense at third and considering it to be a "power position". This of course is very different from the early days of baseball where 3B was considered the most important defensive position on the field. Is baseball now putting more emphasis on third base defense? Let's see what happens this year.

Posted by: Lee Panas at January 29, 2006 02:57 PM

So once again Joe Crede isn't nearly as good as Hawk Harrelson and other Sox fans claim. Not surprising.

Posted by: JD at January 30, 2006 09:05 PM
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