September 25, 2004
Ichiro Odds
Ichiro Suzuki picked up 2 more hits last night as the Mariners continued their spoiler role, defeating Texas 8-7. Suzuki now needs 9 hits in an estimated 39 AB to break George Sisler's hit record.
| Chance of 258 Hits | Based on 2004 | Based on Career |
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| Probability of Breaking Record | .982 | .950 |
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| 95% Confidence, Low End | 9 | 8 |
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| 95% Confidence, High End | 21 | 19 |
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For the first time since I've been keeping track of this, both probabilities are at 95% or above. 95 Percent is considered significant; in other words, at this level, it would be significant if Ichiro didn't break the record.
By the way, today is game 154 for the Mariners. I don't think he'll get 9 hits today.
Posted by David Pinto at
08:45 AM
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Records
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TrackBack (0)
Re: Ichiro and the 154 Game Mark
Very funny, the 154 Game quip.
Dave, you are the "Ford Frick" of the Bloggers United.
Seriously, I borrowed that film "61" which I think was an HBO film about the roger maris quest for 61 and they really villified Ford Frick and the 154 game rule he applied to Maris in that film. My cousin, who's a big basebal fan and coaches t-ball here abouts where my two boys and his boy play, also really likes the film.
It's ironic that so many years later the 154 games issue is totally forgotten and now a record is just a record.
Roger Maris deserved better from baseball. His achievement was monumental, but baseball instead of celebrating it, asterisked it, defamed it and desecrated it as if it had never happened "but for an extra 8 games" as if were nothing.
That record, as we all now know, stood for about 30 years, as long as the Babe's record.
And it wasn't broken until an era when runs were scored more than 5.0 a game.
--AJK
