Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
September 17, 2003
Henderson and Soriano

West 116th Street pens this comparison of Rickey Henderson and Alfonso Soriano. As Soriano leading off was the subject of my very first baseball post, I'm compelled to comment.


Just recently, I downloaded some video files of Rickey's at bats, and it's completely obvious - when he went up to the plate, he had one thought in mind: to get on base. Rickey needed to get on base, so he could steal. And he needed to steal, so that he could score. If you pop up, or fly out, you can't steal. Rickey hit his share of homers - his career record for leadoff home runs is in that very same safe vault as his stolen base record. But Rickey new that his job was to score, and in his case, the best way that he could reach home was to get a base hit, and advance on his speed. So in most at bats, he didn't swing for a home run, he swung for a single. His career runs scored record (another, very snug and safe record) proves that. It also proves that Rickey Henderson was the best leadoff man in history, and the most valuable player for any team, since the way to win the game is to score runs.

(Emphasis added.) I would disagree with the fact of this statement, but not its intention. Rickey doesn't care how he reaches base. Rickey is just as happy to reach base by a walk as by a hit. Henderson is waiting for a pitch he can hit; if he doesn't get such a pitch, he'll take it. If he does get something to hit, he tries to cream it. Remember, when Rickey won the MVP in 1990, he was 2nd in the league in slugging percentage behind Fielder, so he could hit for power as well as get on base.

Soriano swings for a home run. I always thought that was Sori's biggest problem. That, combined with his awful plate discipline, is what throws him into those awful extended slumps. It is difficult to rectify that, when Soriano's leadoff strategy is rewarded with such coveted honors as consecutive 30/30 seasons, and a climb up the single season leadoff home run ladder. (I suppose I contribute to the problem, since my whole man-over-math baseball schtick makes me the first to jump and cheer for such unlikely feats).

But, according to Joe Torre, I am completely wrong. During this evening's pre-game show on WCBS radio, the skipper talked about how great leadoff home runs are, and how the energy that is created by the homer off the first pitch of the game gives the dugout a boost of inspiration. I suspect, Torre was caught up in the moment, because his bottom line is clear - to score runs and to win games. But those comments made me question my firm convictions about leadoff strategy. As impressed as I am by each one of Sori's leadoff home runs, I never considered that they could add any more value to the team then the one run scored. A 30+/30+ season is a sign of a very good, very well rounded player. But is that the approach that will take one to leadoff greatness of Henderson's magnitude?


Well, those comments shouldn't make you question your firm convictions. Leadoff HR are nice, but getting on base 40% of the time is much better. And being a 30/30 (or 40/40 or whatever) do not make you a well rounded player. They just show that your game is good in two dimensions; and one of those dimensions isn't particularly valuable. The truth is that Rickey's stolen bases had very little impact on his runs scored, that if Henderson had never attempted a stolen base, he'd still be a great leadoff man and still be in the Hall of Fame. Using Bill James runs created formula from the late 80's, with SB and CS, Rickey creates 2147 runs. With SB and CS he creates 2014 runs. So basically, Rickey added about five runs per season with his steals. That's not a lot.

As I've said before, Soriano's strength is his power. His stats (low OBA, high slugging percentage) are more valuable at the end of the offense than at the beginning. He should be batting fourth or fifth, behind Jeter, Williams and Giambi. If the Yankees moved him there for a full season, you might see him post 160 RBI. But unless he has a Sammy Sosa revelation, he'll never come close to Rickey's leadoff greatness.


Posted by David Pinto at 11:09 AM | On Base | TrackBack (0)