Baseball Musings: Lineup Advantage

October 29, 2008

Lineup Advantage

The Good Phight notes the Phillies not only hold an advantage in having an extra-half inning to bat tonight, but they have a lineup advantage as well:

For the Rays, they will bat 6-7-8-9-1-2-3-4-5 (and so on if they get any runners on base). Thus, they will start the seventh with the bottom half of their lineup and only get into the heart of their lineup after going through 5 or 6 other batters. Worst comes to worst for the Rays, the heart of their lineup, including basepath terror BJ Upton who is batting third in this game, won't bat until the top of the ninth. If the Rays do get any runners on base, the bottom of their lineup will bat twice in this game.
For the Phillies, they're in much better shape. They will bat, at a minimum, 9-1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-1-2 (and so on if they get any runners on base). Thus, they will start the game (the bottom of the sixth) with a pinch hitter chosen particularly for the matchup and then will go into the top of their order. They will immediately have their best hitters at the plate to get the shortened game started right. Even if no one gets on base in the sixth, the heart of the Phillies' order will hit in the bottom of the seventh. If anyone gets on base over the course of the Phillies' 12 outs, they will have the heart of their order come up to bat twice.

The Rays bullpen has their work cut out for them. So does Balfour come out for the bottom of the sixth? He worked one inning, threw 9 pitches and had a day off. If he doesn't start the sixth, Maddon can't use him again. He would likely face Dobbs, a lefty, Rollins, a switch hitter, and Werth, a righty. Or do you bring in Price, who is perfectly capable of starting a game and going three innings, keep Dobbs on the bench, and have David in and warmed up for Utley and Howard? I might actually send Balfour out to see if Manuel goes to Dobbs, then bring Price in so that Charlie burns a good pinch hitter.

Posted by David Pinto at 11:31 AM | World Series | TrackBack (0)

Comments

Balfour has been getting hit around in the postseason, though Price's previous outing against the Phillies was shaky, too. I guess Maddon could try the irritating and game-delaying bait-and-switch with Balfour and then Price to avoid Dobbs.

By the way, that bait-and-switch should be outlawed. If a manager is going to change pitchers at the start of the opponent's half-inning, he should be forced to notify the umpire immediately at the end of his own team's half-inning. This would avoid the annoying double delay.

Posted by: Casey Abell at October 29, 2008 11:57 AM

Not to mention that if Maddon tries the irritating bait-and-switch at the start of the resumption, he's gonna be real popular with fans across the country who have waited for literally days to see the game start again. I know, that won't bother him if the bait-and-switch burns Dobbs.

But the annoying and game-slowing tactic should be banned.

Posted by: Casey Abell at October 29, 2008 12:03 PM

I don't agree: the bait-and-switch is part of the strategy. Yeah, it can be a little annoying as a fan, but it's part of the game. In any event, there's no law that says the Phillies have to send Dobbs out if Balfour takes the mound. Why deny managers the chance to do whatever they can to maximize the chances of winning? Isn't that the point of having managers?

Posted by: Tom at October 29, 2008 12:37 PM

As mentioned in the quoted article, there is a pretty good chance that the pitcher's spot comes up for the Rays in the top of the 7th with a guy on base. Given that, and considering the matchups, I'd expect Maddon to go with Balfour for those first three hitters. Unless they go down 1-2-3, he should probably face Utley (who doesn't have a big L/R split) as well. There is no way he shoulld face Howard though.

Posted by: Vegas Watch at October 29, 2008 02:04 PM

Actually, I'd like to reduce the roster size and/or impose a reliever-must-face-two-batters rule to cut down on the endless delays for pitching changes in the late innings. But those are probably too radical to get passed.

But eliminating the bait and switch would be a much less radical way to get rid of the particularly annoying double delay between innings. I wouldn't be surprised to see it passed one of these years.

Yes, it does eliminate a tiny bit of cat-and-mouse from the game. But the manager still has to make the hard decision on who he wants to face the likely next hitter. He just doesn't get to delay the game another three minutes, after the already too-long between-innings break.

Posted by: casey abell at October 29, 2008 02:43 PM

Somebody should explain that to Freddy Gonzalez.He makes the change before the pitchhitter is anounced.Thus saving the pitchhitter

Posted by: fred at October 29, 2008 05:26 PM