David,

This is what I don't get. For the past 4 or so years, everyone seemed to be saying that Manny was not even worth the $20mil/year that the Sox were paying him. His offensive production remained strong, although most thought he was entering a slow decline. His defense was deemed a substantial liability.

Is it just the last two months that cause you (and others) to believe that he'll now command $25-$30 mil a year? Do the last two months have real predictive value--when they seem to be an aberration from his last five years of production? Is there reason to believe that Manny, as great as he's been in the past, is now entering a Barry Bonds circa 2001 phase? It wasn't too long ago that the Sox put him on waivers (twice, I think) and no one claimed him. No one.

I tend to think that a long term $25 million contract will not go well.

David,

This is what I don't get. For the past 4 or so years, everyone seemed to be saying that Manny was not even worth the $20mil/year that the Sox were paying him. His offensive production remained strong, although most thought he was entering a slow decline. His defense was deemed a substantial liability.

Is it just the last two months that cause you (and others) to believe that he'll now command $25-$30 mil a year? Do the last two months have real predictive value--when they seem to be an aberration from his last five years of production? Is there reason to believe that Manny, as great as he's been in the past, is now entering a Barry Bonds circa 2001 phase? It wasn't too long ago that the Sox put him on waivers (twice, I think) and no one claimed him. No one.

I tend to think that a long term $25 million contract will not go well.

The market changed. If Torii Hunter is worth $18 million, Manny is worth a lot more than that. Even in decline, he's worth more than that.

Second, a lot of GMs will focus on the short term positives, not the long term negatives. Theo, Beane, Towers, e.g. won't pay that kind of money, but Sabean and Bowden might.

Manny just said in the last two months, "See what I can do if you make me happy?" Someone will think it's worthwhile to make him happy.

I'd be pleasantly surprised to be proven wrong here.

JC is out of his mind if he's projecting Manny at being worth $21 million a year for six years. Does he not factor in fielding? Or age?

I mean, jeez. He had the best possible fielding situation in Boston: a very shallow left field, with a wall he supposedly understands how to play very well... no foul territory at all to be responsible for, and a centerfielder with very good range (Coco) right next to him. And still, he rated horribly at fielding.

And to say he's worth 6/128 but he'll only get 4/80? When was the last time a high profile free agent signed a contract for LESS than he was worth? When was the last time a Boras client signed for less than he was worth?

If Manny signs for 4/80, ignoring everything else I'd guess he's truly worth 3/51, TOPS.

But knowing what I do know... in the NL, he's worth no more than $15 million a year, and I may be generous there.

Actually, I take issue with the idea that the consensus was that Manny has not been worth what the Red Sox were currently paying Manny. The whole point behind Manny's shananigans forcing a trade was to give Manny leverage to ensure that no team would exercise the option under that contract for the next couple of years. Because, we all thought, including Manny and Boras, that Manny would command more on the open market than the $20 per year option price, and do so over a long term contract.

I suspect Manny will get between $25 million and $30 million a year

That's crazy talk - anyone who offers him that is over bidding themselves by at least 8M a year.