February 26, 2007
Debating Protection
Ken Rosenthal look at the debate about batter protection in the context of the Phillies lineup. I found this interesting:
Howard points out the importance of the three hitters in front of him -- Rollins, Shane Victorino and Chase Utley -- getting on base.
During late June/early July 1992, George Bell went on a huge power streak. ESPN asked me to see if George was getting better protection from the hitters behind him. What I discovered was that the protection was coming from the hitters in front of him, Raines, Ventura and Thomas. All were posting great OBAs during that period. Opponents had to pitch to Bell, because there was no place to put him. So Ryan's right, the more the batters get on in front of him, the better his chance to do some damage. At some point, you need to try to get an out.
Posted by David Pinto at
01:18 PM
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Ultimately, it's not about getting the most production out of your clean-up hitter, but getting the most production out of your lineup. Suppose putting Rollins instead of Burrell in the fifth spot were to decrease Howard's RC by x% over the course of the season. However, the Phils may make up that difference by exchanging 54 PAs of Rollins for 54 PAs of Burrell (the second-place hitter gets about 54 more PAs over the course of the season than the fifth place hitter).
I inserted the PECOTA projections into the lineup analysis tool and got as an ideal lineup:
Burrell, Utley, Rollins/Victorino, Howard, Helms, Barajas, Rowand, Pitcher, Rollins/Victorino.
NB: Putting either Rollins or Victorino third and the other ninth yields the exact same output, hence the slashes.
i'm not sure what projecting rollins and victorino equally says about pecota. shane has played half a year and jroll is a former all star coming off a season when he showed more power than ever.
que the conversation about phillies fans hating pat burrell even though they've treated the guy better than most any other town would.
re: ryan howard and protection
1) first and foremost, for protection, Ryan Howard will need to see some people in South Philly who also work across the river in Jersey and also in Atlantic City who have from time to time been fictionally portrayed in certain martin scorcese films and in an HBO series known as the Sopranos. This is Philly, after all. These men can protect anyone.
2) Seriously, the thesis that OBA ahead of the hitter is what matters is substantially correct. I watched virtually all of Howard's at bats the last two seasons and he hits best with runners on base--when the pitcher is forced to pitch to him. They really don't care if the bases are empty, who hits behind him, they will still pitch around him and give him the walk.
3) Burrell or Utley batting behind him, even with their OBA and power, are still hitting with OPS in the high 800s compared with howard OPS of 1.000 plus, so no pitcher is going to want to face Howard with the based empty.
4) They didn't pitch to howard with the bases empty in all of september 2006.
5) Utley has a very high OBA; Victorino ok and Rollins less than average, but often gets into scoring position. Victorino's OBA is in the .370s when he's hitting well. Consequently, the lineup should be Rollins, Victorino, Utley, Howard, Burrell, etc. as it was last year.
6) Burrell is a fine hitter and can "protect" howard just fine.
--arthur j kyriazis, philly
