January 26, 2007
Pavano to Throw
WasWatching notes that Carl Pavano throws from a mound today. Despite this, he's still down on Carl:
The upshot of what I started to write last night was around what was a reasonable expectation for a season's innings pitched total from Pavano - based on his big league career to date.
Getting more than 137 big league IP from Carl Pavano in a season is a rare thing. Sure, he posted 200+ IP in 2003 and 2004. However, it's a much safer bet to expect less than 140 IP (in a season) from the Duke of the D.L, the Rajah of Rehab, the Prince of the Paycheck-Cashers, or whatever you want to call him.
My problem with this line of thinking is how many pitchers post numerous 200 inning seasons anyway? Last year, 45 pitchers reached that mark or 1.5 per team. For example, through age 30, Schilling only pitched three 200 inning seasons. Someone wanting to hire Curt at that point might have thought he wasn't worth the injury risk, but he ended up having a very productive decade.
I'd say the probability is high that Pavano doesn't pitch tons of innings this year. But at this point, New York would be very happy to get 140 productive innings out of Carl.
Posted by David Pinto at
11:37 AM
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Pavano is a contrarian dream play, unless you believe he was never particularly good. If you think there's talent raise the expectations. This is his last chance to rescue his family name from baseball punchline cooperstown. And at his age, a good year and change of town is wroth another 80m. Buy
Pavano, if healthy, will be a league-average pitcher or better. The "if healthy" qualifier has always been the issue. Of he can stay healthy for 2007 and/or 2008, he will be an extremely valuable member of the Yankees rotation. With their offense, he could win 20 games, if healthy, which is great for his fantasy numbers, but ridiculous, because he is not that good a pitcher.