Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
December 05, 2006
Probabilistic Model of Range, Firstbase, 2006

Here's the table for the first basemen.

Probabilistic Model of Range, First Basemen. Model is Based on 2006 Data Only. Minimum 1000 Balls in Play. Uses Distance for Fly Balls.
Player InPlay Actual Outs Predicted Outs Out Difference Out Ratio
Lance Niekro 1313 98 82.96 15.04 118.13
Albert Pujols 3864 306 265.59 40.41 115.21
Kendry Morales 1338 124 109.59 14.41 113.15
Derrek Lee 1104 85 76.11 8.89 111.69
Doug Mientkiewicz 2350 159 145.03 13.97 109.63
John Mabry 1031 94 87.37 6.63 107.59
Dan R Johnson 2199 163 151.59 11.41 107.52
Ben Broussard 2097 148 137.99 10.01 107.25
Mark Teixeira 4436 310 293.87 16.13 105.49
Ryan N Shealy 1473 81 77.23 3.77 104.88
Mark Sweeney 1227 99 94.63 4.37 104.62
Jeff Conine 1400 91 87.01 3.99 104.58
Shea Hillenbrand 1858 141 135.02 5.98 104.43
Lyle Overbay 3738 307 294.40 12.60 104.28
Adrian Gonzalez 4031 306 294.88 11.12 103.77
Nick Johnson 4014 319 307.69 11.31 103.68
Andy A Phillips 1635 109 105.25 3.75 103.57
Kevin E Youkilis 3123 233 225.01 7.99 103.55
Nomar Garciaparra 3199 194 188.70 5.30 102.81
Howie Kendrick 1017 73 71.18 1.82 102.55
Rich Aurilia 1024 70 68.35 1.65 102.41
Chris B Shelton 2737 179 175.49 3.51 102.00
Lance Berkman 2722 198 194.72 3.28 101.68
Scott Hatteberg 3415 220 216.73 3.27 101.51
Prince G Fielder 3989 269 265.60 3.40 101.28
Kevin Millar 2478 158 156.17 1.83 101.17
Mike Lamb 1488 98 97.62 0.38 100.39
Travis Lee 2794 218 217.25 0.75 100.35
Paul Konerko 3679 215 214.36 0.64 100.30
Justin Morneau 4046 266 268.21 -2.21 99.18
Richie Sexson 4023 291 294.42 -3.42 98.84
Adam LaRoche 3633 262 265.65 -3.65 98.62
Nick T Swisher 2214 153 155.66 -2.66 98.29
Todd Helton 4025 270 279.64 -9.64 96.55
Ty Wigginton 1008 66 68.89 -2.89 95.81
Ryan F Garko 1291 76 79.74 -3.74 95.30
Carlos Delgado 3696 253 266.75 -13.75 94.85
Robb Quinlan 1151 67 70.79 -3.79 94.64
Wes Helms 1305 79 84.03 -5.03 94.02
Craig A Wilson 1819 93 99.06 -6.06 93.88
Mike Jacobs 2949 191 208.47 -17.47 91.62
Ryan J Howard 4301 275 301.23 -26.23 91.29
Conor S Jackson 3295 231 256.35 -25.35 90.11
Sean Casey 2806 168 189.24 -21.24 88.77
Jason Giambi 1467 71 87.61 -16.61 81.05

Comments

So, Pujols is a +40 and Howard is a -26. Wait, defense doesn't count? Baserunning? No, just Sportscenter clips? Oh ok, nevermind.

Posted by: Luke at December 5, 2006 07:30 PM

That's pretty telling. Unrelated, I actually thought Helton was supposed to be a better 1B than this chart shows. Maybe age caught up to his glove this year too.

Posted by: Mike at December 5, 2006 08:44 PM

Seattle would be a whole lot better if they let broussard play 1st and have Sexson DH.

Posted by: tony at December 6, 2006 02:12 AM
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