Baseball Musings: Walk This Way

March 20, 2006

Walk This Way

Josh Dubow in the Arizona Republic looks at how much Bonds might walk this season:

Whether it's the swing that has made him the most feared hitter of his generation, the bad knee that makes him a liability on the bases or the steroid accusations that make some hope he doesn't break Hank Aaron's home run record, there are plenty of reasons for teams to walk Barry Bonds.
So many, that San Francisco Giants manager Felipe Alou says his slugger might get free passes nearly half the time he comes to bat this season.

"I'm afraid so," Alou said. "There are many reasons why that I don't want to discuss. They want to make it tough for him. I'm not saying it's intentional, I'm just saying they won't give him a pitch to hit."

Will teams really walk Bonds so he won't break the home run record? I doubt it. I suspect they'll challenge him early in the year to see if his knees hold up, then they'll adopt their traditional strategy. And I believe Bonds has it wrong here:

"It's not based on how I do. It's never been based on how I do. It's based on how the team does. It's based on what the guy is doing behind you," Bonds said. "If I'm a pitcher and I have a guy hitting behind anyone who is hitting in a slump I'm going to pitch around him to pitch to the next guy who is in a slump. That's baseball. That's common sense."

There is no one in baseball who is as dangerous as Bonds when he's on. I don't care if a 26-year-old Frank Thomas or Ken Griffey is coming up next, a team has a much better chance of getting one of those guys out. If Bonds shows he can hit, they'll pitch around him.

Of course, that's poor strategy. Walking Bonds just makes the Giants better. He's not perfect; given the chance to hit, Bonds will make outs more often than he gets on base. Opponents are just giving runs to the Giants by walking the slugger.

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Posted by David Pinto at 03:21 PM | Strategy | TrackBack (0)

Comments

I have yet to see an analysis that effectively describes the value of baserunning. Despite his propensity for making outs, Jose Reyes is a great example of a guy who, once he's on base, has a great chance to score, either by taking extra bases or by stealing. I'll bet that you can count on one hand ds the number of times Bonds goes from station to station on a single this year. I appreciate that putting a runner on base just helps the team score...but I just doubt that Bonds on the basepaths is really all that great.

I wondered about that with the lineup analysis tool that looked at OBP and SLG to describe the most effective lineup...it didn't quanitify speed or baserunning, which clearly has a major effect.

Posted by: Dave S. at March 20, 2006 03:48 PM

Why not just plunk Bonds. That way you save three pitches. Plus, if he charges the mound, he's out of the game and maybe gets a nice little suspension.

Posted by: rbj at March 20, 2006 05:17 PM

Walking Barry Bonds may not be as bad a strategy as it might seem. This article shows that avoiding Bonds' slugging potential may have value in itself.

Posted by: BosoxBob at March 20, 2006 06:09 PM

Of course if he's running as poorly as they say, walking him may force the Giants to decide whether to pinch run for him in the top of the first. I'm only half joking. At some point not being physically able to run will undermine the team's scoring ability, unless everyone behind him hits home runs. Walking him forces the manager to make a decision weighing the value of a run in a particular inning/situation against the potential for runs in subsequent innings by Bonds' replacement.

Posted by: RSaunders at March 20, 2006 07:03 PM

As long as the giants keep relying on "hitters" like Lance Neikro and Pedro Feliz to produce, teams will walk Bonds. I mean, if faced with a choice to pitch to one of the best hitters ever, steroids or no, and some barely adequate guy likr the aforementioned two (or Finley or Alou or Todd freakin' Linden), of course they're gonna take the easy out (literally and figuratively).

Posted by: david at March 20, 2006 10:21 PM

Maybe I'm not very bright, but exactly what about the bad knee makes a team want to walk Barry Bonds? If he doesn't drive the ball out, the bad knee a) makes it more likely that he'll get thrown out and b) makes it harder on him to stay in the game. Hell, if I were playing against him, I'd have all my hitters that could hit flies to LF -- same idea as driving the lane against a big man with 4 fouls in basketball. Wear him out, send him to the dugout, feast on the rest of the Giants' pathetic lineup. Game over, man.

Posted by: Gordon at March 21, 2006 11:29 AM