Baseball Musings: Probabilistic Model of Range, 2005, Shortstops, Revised

January 25, 2006

Probabilistic Model of Range, 2005, Shortstops, Revised

The tables here correct the tables presented in this post.

Probabilistic Model of Range, Shortstops, 2005, Original Model
Player	InPlay	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Difference
Omar Infante	1233	171	157.18	0.139	0.127	0.01121
Clint Barmes	2209	276	254.21	0.125	0.115	0.00986
Jason A Bartlett	1766	257	245.86	0.146	0.139	0.00631
Julio Lugo	4297	523	496.20	0.122	0.115	0.00624
John McDonald	1223	163	157.90	0.133	0.129	0.00417
Wilson Valdez	1198	147	142.19	0.123	0.119	0.00402
Juan Castro	1775	243	236.77	0.137	0.133	0.00351
Adam Everett	3748	469	457.97	0.125	0.122	0.00294
Rafael Furcal	4111	539	527.12	0.131	0.128	0.00289
Yuniesky Betancourt	1426	161	159.52	0.113	0.112	0.00104
Alex Gonzalez	3291	404	403.74	0.123	0.123	0.00008
Bobby Crosby	2163	277	277.56	0.128	0.128	-0.00026
Neifi Perez	3026	410	411.18	0.135	0.136	-0.00039
Jimmy Rollins	3994	473	475.97	0.118	0.119	-0.00074
Omar Vizquel	4024	500	506.26	0.124	0.126	-0.00156
Edgar Renteria	4119	452	461.67	0.110	0.112	-0.00235
Jack Wilson	4240	543	553.07	0.128	0.130	-0.00238
Miguel Tejada	4280	526	538.20	0.123	0.126	-0.00285
Juan Uribe	3946	494	505.90	0.125	0.128	-0.00302
Bill Hall	1447	183	187.69	0.126	0.130	-0.00324
Carlos Guillen	1934	240	247.06	0.124	0.128	-0.00365
David Eckstein	4109	550	565.01	0.134	0.138	-0.00365
Oscar M Robles	1313	157	162.74	0.120	0.124	-0.00437
J.J. Hardy	2805	316	328.53	0.113	0.117	-0.00447
Khalil Greene	3123	365	379.76	0.117	0.122	-0.00473
Orlando Cabrera	3706	425	443.34	0.115	0.120	-0.00495
Cristian Guzman	3605	381	399.91	0.106	0.111	-0.00525
Cesar Izturis	2859	338	353.90	0.118	0.124	-0.00556
Derek Jeter	4231	525	555.71	0.124	0.131	-0.00726
Royce Clayton	3711	430	459.89	0.116	0.124	-0.00805
Russ M Adams	3433	372	400.54	0.108	0.117	-0.00831
Jhonny Peralta	3736	465	496.59	0.124	0.133	-0.00846
Mike Morse	1437	144	156.18	0.100	0.109	-0.00848
Angel Berroa	4438	505	543.44	0.114	0.122	-0.00866
Michael Young	4398	489	528.27	0.111	0.120	-0.00893
Felipe Lopez	3804	418	454.44	0.110	0.119	-0.00958
Marco Scutaro	1980	238	257.00	0.120	0.130	-0.00959
Jose Reyes	4308	479	522.85	0.111	0.121	-0.01018

Probabilistic Model of Range, Shortstops, 2005, Smoothed Visiting Player Model
Player	InPlay	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Difference
Omar Infante	1233	171	155.51	0.139	0.126	0.01256
Clint Barmes	2209	276	250.44	0.125	0.113	0.01157
Jason A Bartlett	1766	257	242.41	0.146	0.137	0.00826
Julio Lugo	4297	523	492.52	0.122	0.115	0.00709
John McDonald	1223	163	154.84	0.133	0.127	0.00667
Juan Castro	1775	243	235.64	0.137	0.133	0.00415
Adam Everett	3748	469	456.50	0.125	0.122	0.00334
Wilson Valdez	1198	147	143.00	0.123	0.119	0.00334
Rafael Furcal	4111	539	525.78	0.131	0.128	0.00322
Jimmy Rollins	3994	473	468.01	0.118	0.117	0.00125
Yuniesky Betancourt	1426	161	159.54	0.113	0.112	0.00103
Neifi Perez	3026	410	407.24	0.135	0.135	0.00091
Alex Gonzalez	3291	404	401.73	0.123	0.122	0.00069
Bobby Crosby	2163	277	277.52	0.128	0.128	-0.00024
Edgar Renteria	4119	452	455.84	0.110	0.111	-0.00093
Bill Hall	1447	183	185.15	0.126	0.128	-0.00149
Juan Uribe	3946	494	501.75	0.125	0.127	-0.00196
Miguel Tejada	4280	526	534.62	0.123	0.125	-0.00201
Omar Vizquel	4024	500	508.53	0.124	0.126	-0.00212
David Eckstein	4109	550	559.90	0.134	0.136	-0.00241
Jack Wilson	4240	543	555.09	0.128	0.131	-0.00285
Khalil Greene	3123	365	375.78	0.117	0.120	-0.00345
Carlos Guillen	1934	240	247.11	0.124	0.128	-0.00367
J.J. Hardy	2805	316	326.37	0.113	0.116	-0.00370
Cesar Izturis	2859	338	350.31	0.118	0.123	-0.00430
Orlando Cabrera	3706	425	442.65	0.115	0.119	-0.00476
Oscar M Robles	1313	157	163.31	0.120	0.124	-0.00481
Cristian Guzman	3605	381	398.46	0.106	0.111	-0.00484
Angel Berroa	4438	505	529.83	0.114	0.119	-0.00560
Mike Morse	1437	144	153.39	0.100	0.107	-0.00653
Derek Jeter	4231	525	554.10	0.124	0.131	-0.00688
Russ M Adams	3433	372	398.01	0.108	0.116	-0.00758
Michael Young	4398	489	522.48	0.111	0.119	-0.00761
Jhonny Peralta	3736	465	493.58	0.124	0.132	-0.00765
Royce Clayton	3711	430	463.25	0.116	0.125	-0.00896
Marco Scutaro	1980	238	256.00	0.120	0.129	-0.00909
Felipe Lopez	3804	418	455.16	0.110	0.120	-0.00977
Jose Reyes	4308	479	523.53	0.111	0.122	-0.01034

Omar Infante and Clint Barmes stay at the top. The person who caused the examination that uncovered the data error, Derek Jeter, does make a nice jump, from 38th to 29th or 31st, depending on which model you prefer. He's still not great, but he's not at the bottom. Fear not, New Yorkers! He's replaced in the last spot by Jose Reyes.

Someone hurt by this data change is Bobby Crosby. He looks more average under this model. He appears to have traded places with Rafael Furcal.

More updates to come.

Posted by David Pinto at 06:38 PM | Probabilistic Model of Range | TrackBack (0)

Comments

You'd never guess from watching Reyes that he doesn't have good range. I'm guessing he has good natural defensive skills but needs work with positioning and the like. If this persists in future years he may have a Jeter-like problem translating athleticism (and, in Jeter's case, good baseball knowledge) into a decent number of plays.

Posted by: Crank at January 25, 2006 07:00 PM

And this proves Derek Jeter isn't overrated defensively how?

Posted by: Wooden U. Lykteneau at January 25, 2006 07:03 PM

Reyes actually has above average range to his rightbut David Wright has excellent range to his left... so there's some masking there. I think. I don't know if DER accounts for that. We'll see when the 3B #s are presented, but that's what appears to happen when watching them every day.

You'd think, with a very good 3B, and a black hole at the keystone, the Mets would position Hosey more towards the middle... alas. That would be reasonable & rational, traits not often found in Flushing coaches.

Posted by: bmc at January 25, 2006 07:20 PM

I am dubious of any evaluation that lists Renteria in 05 as an above average SS. I saw so many routine ground balls go by him that I cannot believe he wasn't as bad as some other systems have him being.

Posted by: Craig A. Damon at January 25, 2006 10:18 PM

Um... Cesar Izturis is well below Rafael Furcal on this - but I'm still not sure if that means he's an inferior fielder, or if he's just less efficient at recording outs, or something else?

Did the Dodgers know something we didn't? I'm still wondering what they're going to do with these two.

Posted by: AKM at January 26, 2006 10:15 AM