Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
January 25, 2006
Data Problem

I really do read your comments. This one was very helpful:

Answer: Because if you watch Derek Jeter everyday, you know that it would be a mistake to move him. I hesitated to even respond to this because these kinds of studies used against Jeter do little else except generate tons of malicious comments by self-aggrandizing people, some who put all their time into knocking Jeter. I heard a guy today from BIS talking about how they need to improve how they measure defensive performance. If someone wants to give me the list of games and plays that show how utterly astounding it is that he hasn't been moved, please email me, and I'd be happy to discuss it further. But, you'll have no case, and you should really move on to something else.

This made me think to actually look at the plays on which Jeter scored poorly and Jeter scored well. I paid my $10 to MLB so I can look at their condensed games and looked at a high probability play that Jeter didn't turn. Lo and behold, Jeter made the play! It turns out the database field I was using wasn't set properly on some fielder's choices.

Baseball Info Solutions promptly gave me a fix. I need to rebuild the models for fielders, although this should not effect the team model from previous posts.

Also, as some in the comments to the second basemen pointed out, the actual outs for second basemen differs between the two models. I've only done a preliminary look at that, and I don't know why yet. However, when I rebuild the model I'll make sure that gets fixed as well.

So for the moment, ignore the shortstop and second basemen posts. I'll be revising these. Given the nature of the data error, however, I don't expect to see a big change in the order.

Update: I found the problem with the data for the second baseman. I didn't use the smoothed model, just the straight visiting model. When I fix the data, and repost, I'll take care of that.


Comments

David, this is why I love your site; you actually listen to complaints and constructive criticism and think about them, then respond responsibly & reasonably. Spot on, sir. Spot on.

Posted by: Joseph J. Finn at January 25, 2006 02:50 PM

All that said (and truly, kudos to you David for making this such a great, iterative, responsive Blog...it gives it real life), my money's on Jeter still sitting at the bottom of the collective SS barrell.

I watch him every day, too. And actually, watching him every day lets me watch the opposing SS, so I get a good view of both. The thing about Jeter is that he makes the unusual difficult plays beautifully. He goes out for flies better than any SS I have ever seen, and is great at snaring liners. He is as a good a relay man as you'll see in the game, and his gameplay instincts are always on the money...so you can be sure he'll go for the right play. But his left and right range on ground balls is TERRIBLE. And that's the meat and potatos of the position. The non-glamor plays go by him. Listen to the Yanks on the radio, and the "...past a diving Jeter!" mantra gets tired. Just because he dove for it doesn't mean either a) it was close or b) it was really all that tough a play. I think he's a great player, and that his offense more than makes up for his defensive shortcomings, and that he's likely Hall bound, if he can stave off a serious decline for a few more years and drive his counting stats up in his late 30's. But, watch him every day, and the routine plays DO go by him, a lot.

I agree with David that Jeter's defensive strengths...running down fly balls and his great arm strength...would have made him the best candidate for playing center for the Yanks, and would have significantly improved his overall value to the team, turning him from a defensive liability to a defensive plus.

Posted by: Dave S. at January 25, 2006 04:32 PM

For another point of view, since the numbers always generate plenty of debate...

I had Yankee tickets from 1997-2004, with seats in the upper deck behind home plate (six rows from the railing). I had a bird's eye view of Jeter for something like 200 games, and a lot of the defensive stats matched up with what I saw. I always felt like his range was lacking, especially to his left. Great arm and instincts, excellent on popups, lots of ground ball singles to center field that he just missed.

I do think some analysts revel in bashing Jeter's fielding because it goes against conventional wisdom, but the guy's not perfect just because he has a bunch of World Series rings. Both sides need to chill a bit on this one.

Anyway, that's just one man's subjective opinion.

Posted by: John H. at January 25, 2006 04:34 PM

I agree. Jeter's not the terrible defensive shortstop some like to say he is, but he's certainly not the best there is in the league.

He's so far off on grounders up the middle that I almost believe that his positioning is off or that he's so slow to his left that his dives are just to make it look like he's trying.

Posted by: John at January 26, 2006 01:24 AM

I have to agree... Jeter's a step slow to his left. His range to his right is about average, to be honest. Of course his merits (offense, terrific instincts, great on flies/liners/difficult plays) more than make up for it. What I think alot of people miss is this : Derek Jeter didn't magically get so much better in 2004/2005. He got Alex Rodriguez to play 3rd next to him, so he could shade to his left and cover his flaw. 2nd Base, esp. with Cairo in 2004, was vastly improved over the Soriano days. Cano has tons of range, and will probably be a good 2b in a few years. The lackluster range/defense of the 02/03 yanks in the infield is as much to be blamed as anything else. This is why I have a problem with defensive metrics. Defense is far too dependent on team play to be properly measured without scouting.

That said, Jeter!!!

Posted by: GuyinNY at January 26, 2006 12:08 PM
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