Baseball Musings: Probabilistic Model of Range, 2005, Shortstops and Grounders

January 24, 2006

Probabilistic Model of Range, 2005, Shortstops and Grounders

Update 1/25/2006: I discovered a data error that will likely change the values in these tables. Look for a new post with new data soon.

Update 1/25/2006: Corrected number for this post are here.

As stated in the previous post, here's the data for shortstops on ground balls only. Data with all balls in play is here.

Probabilistic Model of Range, Shortstops, 2005, Original Model, Groundballs Only (Grounders + Bunt Grounders)
Player	InPlay	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Difference
John McDonald	611	135	128.09	0.221	0.210	0.01131
Omar Infante	567	131	124.90	0.231	0.220	0.01076
Bobby Crosby	999	226	216.78	0.226	0.217	0.00923
Clint Barmes	1042	208	199.37	0.200	0.191	0.00828
Neifi Perez	1547	340	330.11	0.220	0.213	0.00639
Jason A Bartlett	827	201	195.84	0.243	0.237	0.00624
Wilson Valdez	535	105	102.46	0.196	0.192	0.00476
Yuniesky Betancourt	637	119	116.07	0.187	0.182	0.00459
Adam Everett	1855	371	363.80	0.200	0.196	0.00388
Cesar Izturis	1464	286	282.07	0.195	0.193	0.00269
Rafael Furcal	2050	420	414.68	0.205	0.202	0.00259
Juan Castro	891	194	192.20	0.218	0.216	0.00202
Julio Lugo	1813	361	360.32	0.199	0.199	0.00038
Miguel Tejada	2065	421	421.96	0.204	0.204	-0.00046
Alex Gonzalez	1608	317	317.88	0.197	0.198	-0.00055
Jack Wilson	1991	433	437.56	0.217	0.220	-0.00229
Jimmy Rollins	1914	351	356.95	0.183	0.186	-0.00311
David Eckstein	2209	458	465.27	0.207	0.211	-0.00329
Carlos Guillen	950	193	197.13	0.203	0.208	-0.00435
Khalil Greene	1417	278	284.50	0.196	0.201	-0.00459
Cristian Guzman	1585	275	286.96	0.174	0.181	-0.00755
Orlando Cabrera	1642	314	327.09	0.191	0.199	-0.00797
Omar Vizquel	1829	376	392.82	0.206	0.215	-0.00919
J.J. Hardy	1253	233	246.02	0.186	0.196	-0.01039
Oscar M Robles	598	117	124.69	0.196	0.209	-0.01285
Russ M Adams	1646	285	306.68	0.173	0.186	-0.01317
Juan Uribe	1820	361	386.61	0.198	0.212	-0.01407
Royce Clayton	1845	346	372.43	0.188	0.202	-0.01432
Jose Reyes	2032	358	388.18	0.176	0.191	-0.01485
Angel Berroa	2088	377	409.76	0.181	0.196	-0.01569
Felipe Lopez	1707	317	345.10	0.186	0.202	-0.01646
Michael Young	2139	381	418.01	0.178	0.195	-0.01730
Jhonny Peralta	1729	356	386.12	0.206	0.223	-0.01742
Bill Hall	630	129	141.28	0.205	0.224	-0.01950
Marco Scutaro	921	181	199.97	0.197	0.217	-0.02060
Edgar Renteria	1858	308	346.29	0.166	0.186	-0.02061
Mike Morse	603	97	113.40	0.161	0.188	-0.02720
Derek Jeter	2088	346	417.89	0.166	0.200	-0.03443

Probabilistic Model of Range, Shortstops, 2005, Smoothed Visiting Player Model, Groundballs Only (Grounders + Bunt Grounders)
Player	InPlay	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Difference
Jason A Bartlett	814	201	190.15	0.247	0.234	0.01333
John McDonald	605	135	126.97	0.223	0.210	0.01327
Neifi Perez	1519	340	323.44	0.224	0.213	0.01090
Bobby Crosby	981	225	214.36	0.229	0.219	0.01085
Omar Infante	560	130	124.48	0.232	0.222	0.00986
Clint Barmes	1032	208	197.93	0.202	0.192	0.00976
Yuniesky Betancourt	629	118	113.60	0.188	0.181	0.00699
Cesar Izturis	1450	286	277.41	0.197	0.191	0.00592
Julio Lugo	1781	361	353.57	0.203	0.199	0.00417
Adam Everett	1795	363	356.25	0.202	0.198	0.00376
Juan Castro	882	194	191.78	0.220	0.217	0.00251
Wilson Valdez	530	105	103.71	0.198	0.196	0.00244
Alex Gonzalez	1579	317	314.25	0.201	0.199	0.00174
Rafael Furcal	2003	415	412.15	0.207	0.206	0.00142
Miguel Tejada	2038	418	415.75	0.205	0.204	0.00111
Khalil Greene	1390	278	280.11	0.200	0.202	-0.00152
David Eckstein	2181	458	461.60	0.210	0.212	-0.00165
Jack Wilson	1951	433	440.34	0.222	0.226	-0.00376
Cristian Guzman	1511	273	279.15	0.181	0.185	-0.00407
Jimmy Rollins	1861	347	355.79	0.186	0.191	-0.00473
Carlos Guillen	937	193	197.89	0.206	0.211	-0.00522
Orlando Cabrera	1622	313	325.76	0.193	0.201	-0.00787
J.J. Hardy	1227	233	244.14	0.190	0.199	-0.00908
Omar Vizquel	1781	376	393.31	0.211	0.221	-0.00972
Juan Uribe	1774	355	372.71	0.200	0.210	-0.00998
Jose Reyes	1999	357	379.67	0.179	0.190	-0.01134
Russ M Adams	1612	284	303.51	0.176	0.188	-0.01210
Jhonny Peralta	1706	356	380.57	0.209	0.223	-0.01440
Oscar M Robles	590	117	125.54	0.198	0.213	-0.01447
Michael Young	2099	376	406.67	0.179	0.194	-0.01461
Bill Hall	620	128	137.43	0.206	0.222	-0.01521
Edgar Renteria	1813	307	335.25	0.169	0.185	-0.01558
Angel Berroa	2064	375	408.13	0.182	0.198	-0.01605
Royce Clayton	1810	346	376.25	0.191	0.208	-0.01671
Marco Scutaro	911	180	196.65	0.198	0.216	-0.01828
Felipe Lopez	1668	317	349.72	0.190	0.210	-0.01962
Mike Morse	589	97	111.71	0.165	0.190	-0.02497
Derek Jeter	2059	345	419.03	0.168	0.204	-0.03595

It's interesting that Neifi Perez moves up quite a bit between the two models. Neifi Perez was the best regular last season, while Jeter is still at the bottom.

Posted by David Pinto at 03:37 PM | Probabilistic Model of Range | TrackBack (1)

Comments

According to the numbers here, 2005 shortstops turned just 96.1% of "expected" outs into "actual" outs. I can't be the only one who finds that a little weird.

Posted by: Jeff Sullivan at January 24, 2006 04:55 PM

Boy, Jeter looks even worse now. Turns out 27% of his outs come on non-GB, which is very high.

I wonder: would it make sense to include FB -- but not LD -- in the IF ratings?

Posted by: Guy at January 24, 2006 06:47 PM

"Past a diving Jeter..."

Posted by: bmc at January 25, 2006 09:57 AM

But but, he won a gold glove. Did I miss this list in the non-ground ball out form? I assume, looking at the numbers for 2nd basemen that the following is not the case, but maybe Jeter's value as an alleged flyball vacuum cleaner would be enhanced if he was surrounded by two ground ball artists at 3rd and 2nd. His ss range would be enhanced by the durround guys and he would be able to suck up shallow pops and soft liners.

Was this more the case last year? Where his range was contracted by those around him, thus he did pretty well?

Past a diving Jeter indeed.

Posted by: Tarik Saleh at January 25, 2006 01:18 PM

If his defensive value does come from catching shallow pop ups and flyballs, which I believe, then he should have moved to CF and let A-Rod play short.

Posted by: Dingus at January 26, 2006 02:12 AM