Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
November 26, 2005
More on Ryan

Ken Rosenthal doesn't like the deal, although I'm not sure this is a good reason:

Let's not forget the potential effect on Ryan, either. He would need to contend not only with the pressure of closing — pressure that cracks many pitchers — but also the pressure of performing under a highly scrutinized contract.

I assume they're giving him the money because the Blue Jays believe he can handle the pressure. I wonder if Ryan came up as closer material on the Orioles psychological tests? Maybe the Blue Jays know about those, too.

Toronto does have the rest of baseball upset:


Several major-league executives were in disbelief when they heard the reported terms. Their shock will turn to anger if the deal is completed and they are forced to bid for free agents in a grossly inflated market. Major League Baseball officials would be equally outraged, knowing their pleas for fiscal responsibility are again being ignored.

"It's so shocking, it's almost laughable," one executive said of the Ryan deal.

The problem here is that fiscal responsibility is at odds with winning. The Blue Jays have money; they don't need to worry about the luxury tax. They want to compete in the AL East, so they need to spend money to do that. Surprise! They're bidding up free agents! That's the way the system works. They wanted the best available, and they gave the money to the younger guy with more strikeouts.

The comparison to Rivera is a little dubious as well. Rivera got a little under $10 million for four years. Ryan will get a little over $9 million for five years. With the exception of the last few years, that's always the way the free agent market worked. It's a sign that the game is healthy. Teams have money to spend, and they're spending it to win.


Posted by David Pinto at 01:56 PM | Free Agents | TrackBack (0)
Comments

I agree. Way too much money for an unproven closer (1 year of closing service time). It didn't even seem that there was a bidding war! How are the terms that high with only one team involved?

Posted by: Carey at November 26, 2005 02:15 PM

Did the Blue Jays overpay...sure, but at the same time they had the money, had the need and went out and hopefully filled it. Nice to see a team besides the Yankees, Red Sox, or Mets being agressive. Now if my beloved Cubbies would go out and get Furcal and a real RF.

Posted by: Ray Weber at November 26, 2005 02:28 PM

All it takes each year is one moron with money to spend to throw the whole pay system out of whack. Agents will use this contract (and others) in arbitration to argue for raises for similar players. Arbitration takes one stupid contract and applies it to all others. In other words they force other teams to be as stupid as Toronto (or Philly in 2003, or Yankees every year, etc).

Posted by: LargeBill at November 26, 2005 02:37 PM

This is much worse than Kris Benson's 3-year deal last year. At least he was a SP. BJ is a closer, a man that will get paid $9 mil+ a year for throwing between 70-80 innings. How much will Hoffman and Wickman now command - two already aged closers?

Posted by: Carey at November 26, 2005 02:49 PM

LargeBill,

Free agent contracts don't throw arbitration settlements out of whack. Giving contracts to arbitration eligible players does. So, if the Marlins were to turn around and sign Willis and Cabrera to long term deals, that would effect the arbitration awards, but Ryan's contract won't. The arbitration system recognizes that their is a difference between what a free agent can make and what a player can get in arbitration.

Posted by: David Pinto at November 26, 2005 02:59 PM

People, you've got to remember that for the jays to win or even compete in the AL east, they need to beat the yankees and red sox. this deal is a little nuts, but this is what they have to do to even give their fans hope for a post -season berth.

Posted by: bill at November 26, 2005 03:42 PM

I think the offer is too high and too long. But it makes more sense than offering 50/5 to AJ.

Posted by: dan d meyer at November 26, 2005 03:45 PM

In my opinion, fans, owners, the media...We all can't have it both ways. We love to complain when owners in KC and Minnesota pocket their profits instead of investing in their teams. And now we're complaining that the new-ish Blue Jays owners are investing too much, IN OUR OPINIONS, into their team to win. So what is it? Would we rather see a team like the Blue Jays overpay a potentially great closer? Or would we rather see a team keep their payroll at $50 million and not compete in the AL Central? We certainly can't have both in baseball.

Posted by: Benjamin Kabak at November 26, 2005 05:32 PM

Teams are hardly bound to match what Ryan got from Toronto. In a sane world, GMs would be thrilled that Toronto is crippling their abililty to retain the kind of impact players they need to beat Boston and New York by signing Ryan to that kind of contract. Instead, they talk as if they are somehow compelled to match Ricarrdi's insanity, as if they have no control over themselves and no ability to distinguish between a bargain and a ripoff. Blez at Athletics Nation somehow twists this into justification for a salary cap, as if Toronto would somehow be prevented from spending money stupidly by having teams like New York and Boston be capped, since Toronto itself would virtually certainly still be under any reasonable cap.

That the reigning theory amonst baseball executives is that there's no such thing as bargain hunting and if someobody goes insane, you have to go insane, too, is the single biggest factor to why contracts like this happen. When Billy Beane talks about market inefficiencies and how the As stay competative year after year on a shoestring budget, being smarter than teams like the Cubs and Blue Jays (leaders in the 'What were we thinking?, 2006 offseason edition' race) is what he means.

Posted by: NBarnes at November 26, 2005 05:37 PM

Nbarnes, you are exactly right. Just because the Jays jumped off a bridge...
It's upsetting that the Jays are being blamed for running up free agent monies, as they have limited themselves in the past and are hurt by it. The Jays were after Clement last year and stopped bidding once they reached what they thought he was worth. Clement chose Boston, and why not. They just won the world series. If the Jays and teams like them are going to get any free agents, they will have to over bid in terms of money and years. Despite the fact that some people think the Jays have gone crazy, they still have another 20M or so available to them. When and if they trade Batista and Lilly(if they sign AJ Burnett) there will be more money to spend, and as a Jays fan, I hope they spendd it all.

Posted by: sweat at November 26, 2005 06:01 PM

next year blue jays will have to trade Vernon Wells, because of the Ryan deal?

Posted by: colin at November 26, 2005 08:02 PM

Most of the Blue Jays key players contracts expire after the 2007 season, including vernons. So probably not.

Posted by: sweat at November 26, 2005 08:54 PM

Benjamin Kabak,
I'm sure fans would complain about Kansas City pocketing their profits if they actually made any profits. By talking about the Jays competing in the AL CENTRAL you helped illustrate why the Jays need to make the deal. They actually play in the AL EAST, they've been an also-ran since '94 and garner little attention. Without giving up the money, why would a free agent pay attention it's not like they give players a real shot at a ring...yet. I really don't think that this deal hurts the Jays as much as people think. What they've effectively done barring a trade of Batista is get themselves a an elite closer and add a middle of the rotation starter for an extra $9 million. Between Batsita and Ryan they'll be paying about $12-13 million for an elite closer and a 3rd starter, which isn't horrible. Also the team doesn't really have any other bad contracts besides Eric Hinske where guys are being wildly overpaid. Furthermore, when the Jays spend their money the can't take flyers on questionable guys, and have little room for error which means when they spend the cash they can't afford to miss and Ryan's as sure a thing as was out there this year.

Posted by: jants at November 26, 2005 11:14 PM

Jants: I know full well what division the Jays play in. I was talking about teams like the Twins and Royals that do pocket their profits which do exist as Peter Gammons told us last week.

I agree that the Jays need to spend money to compete, but they'll make back that money if they compete.

I'm talking about a lot of people who complain about teams spending and complain about teams not spending.

Sorry if my comparison was unclear between the AL East and AL Central parks.

Posted by: Benjamin Kabak at November 26, 2005 11:24 PM

jants: Nobody here is complaining about Toronto spending money at all. We're all saying that Toronto is spending money foolishly and will be a weaker team for their mistakes. It's better than turning into Kansas City, but not a lot better (I live in Seattle, trust me, I know that money doesn't necessarily buy winning).

Posted by: NBarnes at November 27, 2005 12:58 AM

The comparison to Rivera shows that Mariano Rivera has
held down the market in his category, as he did not put himself out to
bid, and could've gotten more. Other than that, there is
no comparison. This site is my #1 favorite, and it's
owner shouldn't have to take a part time job to make
ends meet. I'm sure we agree. However, I realize the
statement I made here about Mariano will be scoffed at
by anyone who's worked at or with espn for any period
of time,or with the baseball writers' usually found
around there, OR at crucial award times. Not that anything I could ever say would change any of those
peoples' views---and I have plenty to say. But, in
spite of having worked at espn, Charley Steiner will
tell you that Mariano is the greatest late inning relief
pitcher and greatest closer ever in the game, and
there will never be another like him. There are people
whose main concern is that Mariano doesn't receive
the recognition he deserves, for several reasons.
One of which, is that Hoffman and Eckersley wouldn't
like it. Sorry to go off a bit.

Posted by: susan mullen at November 28, 2005 10:56 PM
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