May 24, 2005
Creating Runs
Working with the new runs created formula in the last post made me want to see which teams are overperforming and underperforming their run expectations this season. Here's the chart showing runs vs. runs created for all 30 teams.
Team |
Runs Scored |
Runs Created |
Games |
Runs Per Game |
RC Per Game (RC/Games) |
NYA |
246 |
242.0 |
44 |
5.6 |
5.5 |
BOS |
237 |
241.2 |
43 |
5.5 |
5.6 |
BAL |
236 |
247.6 |
43 |
5.5 |
5.8 |
TEX |
234 |
223.5 |
44 |
5.3 |
5.1 |
STL |
232 |
222.0 |
44 |
5.3 |
5.0 |
LAD |
214 |
219.0 |
43 |
5.0 |
5.1 |
ATL |
212 |
192.2 |
44 |
4.8 |
4.4 |
TOR |
211 |
204.9 |
44 |
4.8 |
4.7 |
COL |
200 |
208.8 |
42 |
4.8 |
5.0 |
FLA |
195 |
199.1 |
41 |
4.8 |
4.9 |
NYN |
211 |
212.2 |
45 |
4.7 |
4.7 |
MIN |
198 |
202.6 |
43 |
4.6 |
4.7 |
SD |
202 |
206.5 |
44 |
4.6 |
4.7 |
CHA |
205 |
193.7 |
45 |
4.6 |
4.3 |
TB |
205 |
212.3 |
45 |
4.6 |
4.7 |
DET |
188 |
192.2 |
42 |
4.5 |
4.6 |
CIN |
195 |
199.2 |
44 |
4.4 |
4.5 |
SF |
188 |
199.5 |
43 |
4.4 |
4.6 |
CHN |
183 |
199.4 |
42 |
4.4 |
4.7 |
ARI |
195 |
204.5 |
45 |
4.3 |
4.5 |
PHI |
199 |
215.2 |
46 |
4.3 |
4.7 |
MIL |
190 |
192.6 |
44 |
4.3 |
4.4 |
SEA |
184 |
168.3 |
43 |
4.3 |
3.9 |
LAA |
184 |
168.8 |
44 |
4.2 |
3.8 |
KC |
183 |
167.2 |
44 |
4.2 |
3.8 |
WSH |
184 |
193.4 |
45 |
4.1 |
4.3 |
CLE |
170 |
174.7 |
43 |
4.0 |
4.1 |
OAK |
169 |
164.1 |
43 |
3.9 |
3.8 |
PIT |
163 |
173.1 |
42 |
3.9 |
4.1 |
HOU |
160 |
172.0 |
44 |
3.6 |
3.9 |
This should be encouraging to Baltimore fans. The Orioles are in first place and scoring less than predicted. There is untapped potential offense there! It also should be somewhat worrying to White Sox fans, as Chicago is not only exceeding it's expected won-lost record by three games, but it's partially built on an overachieveing offense.
It's difficult to believe the KC Royals are outperforming their expectation, but they are tied with the Angels and the Braves at .4 per game over their predicted value. The Royals are hitting 20 points lower with runners on than with the bases empty, but the hits they are getting are long hits. So they are doing a good job of drving runners around despite a low BA and OBA in the situation.
The Phillies are at the other end of the scale, .4 below their expected runs per game. With men on, the Phillies OBA goes up but their power goes down. It looks like opponents have found holes where they can pitch around the dangerous hitters with men on base. A return to form by Jim Thome would improve that situation.
Posted by David Pinto at
09:50 AM
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While I have no evidence to back my claim, I would guess that top-heavy line-ups will out-score their RC rate, since all the quality bats are bunched together. KC, Atlanta, and the Angels have their best players hitting around Sweeney, Chipper, and Vlad.
I've been saying for a while that the Royals really are this bad, and maybe worse.
I notice that the Giants are underperformng their projections by 0.2 runs per game. I don't have the RC formula handy, but I'd guess that's due to the fact that they're 4th in the NL in OBP, but 11th in SLG. The Geritol Gang can still get on base at a good clip, but the team's power is down drastically without Barry in the lineup, and relying on Alou, Alfonzo and Feliz in the heart of the order is probably not a recipe for long-term success.
my stros ARE worse than i thought - worse than the royals is BADDDDDDDDDD
CHW and LAA have scored 7% and 10% more than RC. A win for small ball or random variation? I haven't seen year-over-year runs of this data to rule out consistent patterns.