November 05, 2004
Fantasy World
This made me laugh.
Houston Astros free agent center fielder Carlos Beltran is seeking a 10-year contract, his agent told a television station on Thursday.
I think this should read Scott Boras is looking to gaurantee his income for the next ten years.
And it's probably not going to happen. Why? Insurance. Insurance companies will no longer cover baseball contracts longer than three years. That doesn't mean that Beltran can't get a long term contract. However, since the risk in such a contract won't be borne by insurers, it will have to be carried by Beltran and the team signing him. That means either less money or less guarantees.
On top of that, as good as Beltran is, he's not Mays or Mantle. For his career, his OBAs are good, not great. His slugging percentages are good, not great. He is a marvelous center fielder, which does count for a lot. But he was 27 in 2004, which is pretty near the peak of a player's performance. He's not going to get much better than he was in 2004. So why give a long term contract to someone with a career .353 OBA and .490 slugging percentage unless the price is low?
My guess is that Beltran may be much better off going for a short term (3 year) contract. With all the risk involved, my seat of the pants guess is that Beltran would be worth $10 million a year for 10 years. However, if the risk of a three year contract could be passed off to insurers, he could easily get $50 million over the period of a three year contract.
To put it another way, most organizations can't bid on Carlos over 10 years. So to get a lot of money, Boras has to depend on someone being stupid and over paying (A-Rod with Texas, e.g.). But if Boras goes for a three-year deal, then many organizations can bid because they can cover the risk. And the more bidding, the higher the price will go. The risk to Beltran is that he gets injured and has to live the rest of his life on $20 million he's taken home from his $50 million contract. The upside is that if he has three great years, he can sign for even more and make in six years what he would have made in 10.
These negotiations will make an interesting winter.
It just goes to show that Boras is delusional beyond belief. I wonder what his opening demand for Adrien Beltre will be.
He is probably just trying to copy the Arod contract, and hoping that some GM is stupid enough to think that a) That contract wasn't the dumbest thing Hicks ever did, and b) that Beltran is 4 years older and not as good as Arod was. Either way, 10 years is too much for even the Yankees to do.
Ivan
The days of the 10-year contract are probably over, but he'll still probably be overvalued. I wouldn't be surprised to see him get a 5 or 6 year deal with some team.
I wonder if the rumors about the Dodgers going after Troy Glaus are serious, or if they're some kind of a pre-emptive move to keep Beltre from trying to get too much money.
See, this is the same guy who was on Boston radio a while back (July or so) who was trying to claim that Derek Lowe was still good, despite having the worst ERA and OBA in the entire AL at the time. "But he get's the W's", Boras said. Well no crap, I'd get the W's with that kind of run support.
I can't tell you how much this guy pisses me off, but I'm just so glad that it looks like the Sox aren't stupid enough to deal with his shenanigans. Thank you Theo, Bill, and Voros.
i can't think why even george or wilpon would be stupid enough to guarantee a 10 year contract.
as much as i want carlos, we couldn't afford like 50 mill over 3 years. but i think that 5 or maybe 6 years is what he'll get. because of insurance, like you said. i mean, we gave bagwell that 7 year contract and we have him for 2 more years and he isn't worth 17 mill/yr. and the cubs think sammy's contract is untradeable....
"The risk to Beltran is that he gets injured and has to live the rest of his life on $20 million he's taken home from his $50 million contract."
Yeah, that's some risk. That'd sure be rough living on $20 million and not having to work a real job. :>)