Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
October 22, 2004
A-Rod is Not the Problem

I've seen this in two places now, the idea that A-Rod brings defeat with him. First it was at Soxaholix (warning, obsenity laced (but funny) rant). The 2nd is at Let's Fly Under the Bridge. I'll fisk the 2nd, since this tries to be a kid friendly blog:


Alex Rodriguez, surrounded by potential Hall of Famers; Randy Johnson, Edgar Martinez, and Ken Griffey Jr., the Mariners fail to reach a World Series.

How about this: Long time superstars Johnson, Martinez and Griffey are given the best hitting shortstop of this generation to compliment their talents and still can't win a World Series. And since reaching the World Series is the goal here, I don't remember the 2001 Mariners doing any better in that regard.

Look, the Mariners were a very good team in the late 1990's. In 2001 they replaced 1 superstar with 2 superstars. Surprise! They got better! They got really good! The problem was the Yankees figured out Ichiro's weakness for the ALCS, and the Mariners sunk. It's just a thought, but A-Rod, who has fewer weaknesses than Ichiro, might have done better.


Free agent Alex Rodriguez, after assuring the Seattle Mariner fans that money wouldn't determine his destination, signs with the Texas Rangers for $250 million. Texas immediately goes to the bottom of the standings.

And they went there with a good offense, which was the whole point of getting A-Rod. In his three years in Texas, the Rangers finished 3rd, 5th and 5th in runs per game, but 14th, 12th and 14th in ERA. This year, they finished 4th in runs per game and 5th in ERA. Surprise! They didn't finish last. I'm sure A-Rod was the only reason their pitching improved so much.

2004: After aborting a trade to the Boston Red Sox, Rodriguez finds a home at third base in Yankee Stadium. The Red Sox accomplish the unheard of; regrouping from a 3-0 deficit, they win the final four games, and take the American League pennant. Now await a National League opponent in the 2004 World Series.
I believe it was the Union that aborted the trade, but that's neither here nor there. How about this: With A-Rod in New York instead of Boston, the Yankees play 12 games better than their Pythagorean projection and finish three games ahead of the Red Sox instead of 8 games back. Had the Red Sox gotten A-Rod, leaving the Yankees with no third baseman of any quality, the Yankees probably don't make the wild card, and this grand comeback doesn't happen.

So sure, go ahead and hang all these losses on Alex Rodriguez and ignore reality. There are plenty of teams who wish they were cursed with A-Rod.


Posted by David Pinto at 10:26 AM | Superstitions | TrackBack (0)
Comments

Wouldn't the A-Rod trade to Boston have had more implications then just lowering the Yankees' win total?

That would have put Manny in Texas (in turn keeping Soriano in NY), and swapped Nomar to Chicago's south side for Magglio Ordonez, if I remember correctly. This also keeps Cabrera, Mientkiewicz, and Roberts(?*) out of Boston as well, since they no longer have Nomar to trade to the Cubbies mid-season.

*I don't remember how Roberts was aquired off-hand, but realistically ALL mid-season trades would likely have been different.

Posted by: The Southpaw at October 22, 2004 11:58 AM

yes, the ERA of rangers pitching improved. might could that be because a-rod is no longer calling the pitches? or positioning the fielders? and without either arod or palmeiro, they're still in the top 5 in runs/game.

and if the red sox had gotten arod, they would have had no manny and no magglio ordonez.

and i don't see how you can say that the yankees beating their pythag is ONLY because of arod, who didn't exactly light it up with risp.

and no, i don't want a cheating jerk slimeball like him on my team. at any price. gimme carlos. any day.

Posted by: lisa gray at October 22, 2004 12:34 PM

How about a Curse of Nomar? Cubs sank at the end, like so many Red Sox teams, and after Boston gets rid of him, they win scads of games. And I don't recall Texas in the post season this year, and how many games did the Mariners win this year?

Posted by: Robert at October 22, 2004 01:14 PM

i don't see how you can say that the yankees beating their pythag is ONLY because of arod, who didn't exactly light it up with risp.

non sequitur. What you want is not RISP, but close and late; well, close, anyway. Pythag is warped by distribution of scoring, not efficiency.

Posted by: Danil at October 22, 2004 01:26 PM

Thank you for your commentary re: Alex. I believe that he gets so much sh#@. I also believe that he does compliment any team. He's young and he's made a few mistakes, but he is a phenomenal player and I was glad to have him on my M's team. As for cheating.... not that I agree with it but........How many players will argue an obvious strike out, or tag, etc. when it's clearly an obvious out?
Gentle Reminder: There are no I's in team.
The Seattle Mariner's are on their way...I believe!

Posted by: Leimomi (My-Oh_My) at October 22, 2004 03:08 PM

The great what-if is what would have happened if the Red Sox had acquired Arod. If Magglio still got hurt, they would have had Gabe Kaplar running out in leftfield in this series. The Yankees would have had Soriano and Mike Lamb, so where would the Astros have been, as they made the Wild Card by 1 game?

Also, imagine if the Rangers had kept Rodriguez. Would they have then had the horses to win the AL West? That trade seems to me to have shaped two division races (although I think the Yankees still would have won the Wild Card...they were 10 games ahead of the A's.)

While I am on the what-ifs, what would have happened if someone had claimed Manny, the Sox's MVP on irrevocable waivers? It would free them up financially long-term, but would they have been able to make the World Series this year?

Posted by: Man of Leisure at October 22, 2004 03:18 PM

leimomi (what a BEAUTIFUL name)

i think there is a BIG difference between a player arguing a strike call (what a silly waste of breath) or a tag out (both LEGAL plays)

AND

a person who does something that he KNOW is illegal. i disbelieve that a 10 year veteran has absolutely NO idea that it is against the rules to slap at the defender's glove. i was screaming - hey he can't do that - even BEFORE the fuss. i'm more disgusted with the doing something illegal in the first place than i am about his complaining when he got caught (although that's almost as bad.)

and i started disliking arod personally (not as a player) when he took that giant contract to go to a place he MORE than obviously did not want to be - not enough tabloids to adore Him - then saying it wasn't about the money. barrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrfff

i hope the front office does better by yall this year.
Ichiro rules!!!

danil -
i'm not a pythag fan, was just talking about it cuz it was already mentioned. OK, close and late instead of RISP. Arod didn't do so hot there either.

Posted by: lisa gray at October 22, 2004 03:50 PM

"Gentle Reminder: There are no I's in team."

... but there is a 'me'

Posted by: Clay Caviness at October 22, 2004 05:15 PM

I think the pythag has always been nothing more than bad science like a lot of Bill James' formulas. He's still stuck in the 70's when the total runs two teams would score was 6 or 7 not 10 or 11. You gotta play defense more than ever nowadays with these small parks and the hitting so much better than ever. A missed double play is at least twice as important as it was when James wrote his first abstract. Offhand, I can think of two teams not making a double play kept out of the playoffs - A's - Giants [maybe] and one team it kept out of the Series - Astros.
On A-Rod, I would agree with lisa. It could change, maybe he's just jinxed, but so far the evidence is pretty clear that teams he plays for have underperformed what was expected and once he leaves they play better. He had lots of chances to put that Sox series away with a single or even a sac. fly but I think he wanted HEADLINES and was trying to hit it out every time up.

Posted by: steve g at October 22, 2004 05:46 PM

Or maybe he was having trouble swinging the bat after Pedro intentionally hurt him by hitting his elbow with a 90 MPH pitch (but then again since he plays for the Sox, we know Pedro is nothing but class, right). I've played the game and it's not so easy hitting with a severe elbow bruise. All this talk of A-Rod as a liability is ridiculous. He had the best season of any Yankee 3rd basemen in their history. Without him during the regular season they probably don't make the playoffs. Without him hitting an incredibly clutch double in the ALDS, they probably don't even play the Sox in the ALCS.

Posted by: MM at October 22, 2004 06:20 PM

Lisa, Ichiro isn't even the best Japanese player in MLB. You can like him if you want, but I'll take Godzilla over Ichiro.

Posted by: shawn at October 22, 2004 07:51 PM

mm - maybe the pitch did affect him, who knows? intentional or not? i'm not going there.

shawn, i LIKE watching ichiro play. i'll watch him, you watch godzilla (yawn.) as my mother sez, there's someone for everyone...

Posted by: lisa gray at October 22, 2004 08:56 PM

I think we can all conclude: Lisa doesn't like the Yankees.

Posted by: Matt at October 23, 2004 04:25 AM

re not liking the yankees:

1) i like george because he's willing to spend ANYTHING to win, but there's no point in hiring baseball people if you gonna do your own thing anyway and he should have learned a long time ago that it's a dumb thing to do.

2) i loath, despise, detest, abhor (and all other words meaning hate) a-rod because of his personality - it has nothing to do with what i think about him as a ballplayer (his personal stats - i'm at least smart enough to know that they're good.) but men are people, not numbers and affect each other and i wouldn't want him on my team, stats or no stats. you might could say that the failure of his 2 new teams and the improvement of his old ones is coincidence, not cause, but i'm not so sure.

3) i do not like the yankee bias of fox broadcasters. (remember last year's world series and them constantly dissing the marlins?) if they were so strongly biased in favor of, say, the sox, i would hate that just as much. i was one of the dozen people (were there that many of us?) who watched the nlcs and the broadcasts were interrupted at least several times to talk briefly about the wonderfulness of yankees. talk about gettin no respect...

4) i think derek is a GOOD ballplayer, not a GOD ballplayer

5) if i was born in the bronx, i'd root for the yankees, too. actually, if the yankees was a team of young, homegrown players and the underdogs instead of a bunch of mercenaries, i might could root for them, too.

6) i happen to like shawn no matter who he roots for. every man has his little flaws (except jeter, of course...)

Posted by: lisa gray at October 23, 2004 12:42 PM

lisa,

If the Red Sox were a team of young homegrown players and the underdogs instead of a bunch of mercenaries maybe I could root for them too.

Am I wrong or is Trot Nixon the only homegrown player on their entire playoff roster? I think Schilling would have to count as a mercenary even though he may have came up in the Boston organization 15 years ago. Varitek and Lowe are from Seattle, Wakefield and Arroyo are from Pittsburgh. The last time I looked the Yanks had homegrown veterans Williams, Rivera, Posada, and Jeter.

Also last time I looked the Sox were favored to beat the Yanks and are now favored to beat the Cards.

Posted by: mm at October 23, 2004 05:01 PM

A-rod isn't a leader. His team almost made the playoffs without him. Until A-Rod does something to make his team go to the World Series and win, he is going to be a loser. The Yanks had bad pitching, I agree, but trust me, A-Rod is going to have the "Loser" sticker on his back until he gets it off. I am a Red Sox fan, and we have had that sticker on our back for 86 years. It doesn't come off easy. Derek Jeter will never have it. The Patriots will never have it. Joe Montana will never have it, while Marino, Manning, A-Rod, The Cubs, and other such teams and players are not going to be "winners" until they win. A-rod was on a good team that got beat. Went to a bad team that he made worse, then went to the best team that he did not bring to the next level.

Would you rather A-rod or David Ortiz?

Interesting question.

Posted by: Gumphood at October 26, 2004 11:30 AM

I'd rather have a guy who could hit and actually play a defensive position with some skill. So if Ortiz was A-Rod's equal offensively (which he isn't) I still take A-Rod in a landslide.

Posted by: steve at October 27, 2004 05:18 PM

I'm pretty content to let the Red Sox fans have their fun and not gripe about it but if I hear one more red sox fan start in with that "the yankees are high priced mercenaries" nonsense again I'm going to go into attack mode.

The red sox are about as home grown as the produce you get on a Big Mac. Their players are like Yankee understudies. However, Theo and co invested better by spreading talent throughout the team, not concentrating it in the starting lineup.

Posted by: steve at October 27, 2004 05:24 PM