Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
September 22, 2004
Ichiro Discussion

There is an interesting discussion in the comments of this post on the value of Ichrio Suzuki. The discussion got started from this article on CSBSportsline. Scott Miller tries to pain Ichiro as a selfish player:


More nagging, and more to the point, is this: As his team has stayed far south, has Ichiro's pursuit of the record become self-centered enough to cheapen the record?

Twice in two days earlier this month, with a runner on second base and two out in a one-run game, when Seattle has needed the American League's leading hitter to knock a run-scoring hit, Ichiro has gone against convention and bunted.

The overwhelming conclusion among those who were watching: Ichiro is currently much more concerned with Ichiro than he is with helping his team.


After the second one, Melvin talked to Ichiro and had him stop that. So,without my knowing what is going on in Ichiro's mind, let me say that getting on base is always a good thing. If Ichiro thought that a bunt with the third baseman playing back was the best way to keep the inning going, I'm not going to criticize him. But indeed, if Suzuki was just concerned with his hits, then he needed a talking to and got one.

As to how great he is, one commentor points out his high ranking in win shares. He's done a good job this year getting on base, he's fast and a good base stealer, and he's a top defensive player. He does have weaknesses, however, the biggest of which is plate discipline.


Historically, he has never walked much -- 45 times in 694 plate appearances last season, for example -- which is part of his uniqueness. Other leadoff hitters take pitches, work counts and allow the rest of the lineup to see what kind of stuff a pitcher has on a given night. Ichiro slaps and runs.

But the Mariners asked him this spring to be a little more patient at the plate. He promptly got off to an awful start. In addition to that .255 April average, there was the .309 on-base percentage. Ichiro had become a big part of the reason why Seattle's season was finished before it ever began.

"We talked some philosophy this spring that, over time, some pitchers did not need to throw strikes to get him out," Molitor said. "We talked about getting himself into better pitch counts.

"To be honest with you, it didn't work very well. I talked to Melvin and we set him free, so to speak. He was respectful to what Bob and I tried to tell him, but I think it was more the mental freedom."

The Mariners "set him free" during late April, early May. He batted .400 in May with a .436 on-base percentage and he has been on base pretty much ever since.


In 2001, the Yankees were able to exploit this lack of discipline with pitches up and in. His other weakness is a lack of power, although I keep hearing that he hits monster shots in batting practice. With hitters like Ichiro, Gwynn, Puckett and others, I wonder what their batting average would be like if they learned to lay off pitches out of the strikezone. Ichiro might hit .400.

But those weakness are minor if he has a .400 OBA. He's a leadoff man. His job is to get on base and set up the power hitters. He does that well, but the power hasn't delivered this year. How great you think Suzuki is may depend on how much you value process over results. Ichiro's process at the plate is lousy, but he's so talented that his results are great. It's scary to think how good he'd be if he got the process right.


Posted by David Pinto at 02:57 PM | Players | TrackBack (0)
Comments

Haters' gotta hate, what can you do about it. For the love of God the Mariners are playing for next year and Ichiro is the only bright spot on this team, so why not let him achieve his goal and make the team look better by having something good to remember the horrible 2004 season.

Posted by: Frank at September 22, 2004 03:20 PM

What I disliked about the Miller article is that it somehow suggested that Ichiro didn't deserve respect for breaking the hits record. I don't get this. Ichiro is a great baseball player. He is not the best player (why does he have to be the best?) but he is probably the best leadoff hitter in the game. Lets face it. Ichiro hitting off first for the Mariners is meaningless because the heart of the order has underperformed. Ichiro hitting off first for the Yankees or Red Sox would have such unbelievable run production numbers that there would be a collective jaw drop.

Miller desparately misses the point in my book. Yes, Ichiro has a weakness. But Miller's point is somehow that Ichiro is a bad, selfish player because of his weaknesses at the plate. I don't get this. His strengths are his strengths and all good/smart players will play to their strengths.

Posted by: seamus at September 22, 2004 04:13 PM

Ichiro is pretty clearly the best leadoff hitter in the game. His .413 OBA + baserunning prowess (as noted earlier) pretty much says that. But I think that Miller was trying to build a case around a couple of at-bats where Ichiro failed to try to hit runners in when the situation pretty clearly called for it.

As to the record, I think David pointed out research that showed how much more difficult it was for Sisler to achieve what he did in 154 games vs. the current 162 game format. More than anything else, that cheapens it for me. In so many ways, Sislers record-breaking season was so much better than Ichiro's this year...but others have pointed out, and I think correctly, that Ichiro breaking Sisler's record has lead to people taking a peek at Sisler's career, and hopefully to their realization of just how outrageous a player he was.

Posted by: Dave S. at September 22, 2004 04:40 PM

Right. I think people are treating the Ichiro chase with the proper perspective. Nobody is saying he's the best player in the game, and he'll probably wind up somewhere in the middle of the top ten in voting for the AL MVP. But it is a pretty big record, and one that's meaningful to the game in a way that, say, Cal Ripken's Perfect Attendance Award was most definitely *not*. (Now THAT was overhyped.) People realize that the Mariners are a bad team this year and that Ichiro's performance is one of the few bright spots for them.

Yes, Ichiro could do better, but what he is accomplishing is certainly worth noting.

Adam

Posted by: Adam Villani at September 22, 2004 05:02 PM

who says his process is wrong? there's no one correct "process" among successful hitters and even those whose strike-zone judgment and patience are lauded can have different approaches to hitting. as the article points out, Molitor tried to screw with his process this spring and he had a .309 OBP (albeit in a small sample). the rest of the year he has gotten on base close to 45% of the time. his process of getting there is simply different, but it works for him. rather than laying off bad/borderline pitches he attacks them and has coordination, control and speed that he can use to his (and his team's) advantage. i'm not going to argue that he deserves the MVP, but i will argue with anyone who denigrates his skill. he's an above-average player who is a lot of fun to watch. enjoy him while he lasts.

Posted by: jamie at September 22, 2004 05:36 PM

here we go again.

the stats say that a single is always more valuable than a walk. so if ichiro gets mostly on base with singles instead of walks, what is the problem here? how zackly is it gonna make this team better for ichiro to walk more? if he swings at junk out of the strike zone and gets on base, like so what? getting on base is getting on base, as long as it's not a GIDP, which he doesn't do much. i think it's unfair to say that he could somehow turn himself into a barry or jim thome. and i'm tired of everyone complaining that he doesn't score enough runs. well, he needs to other guys to knock him in.

i don't think he's the BEST player in the AL, but he's doing just fine for leadoff.

Posted by: lisa gray at September 22, 2004 09:27 PM

5/5, one run. Boone went 3/4 from the three spot.

Ichiro is an interesting player to watch, and he generates excitement, but I wouldn't build a team around him.

Posted by: ChrisS at September 22, 2004 09:37 PM

Lisa,

In 1985, Wade Boggs had 240 hits and 96 walks. So it's possible to have both a lot of hits and a lot of walks. Boggs had an OBA that year of .450. Now, Ichiro has one thing Wade didn't have, and that's speed. If you combined Wade's process with Ichiro's speed, you get a .400 hitter with a .500 OBA. That would be really valuable.

If Sosa could learn to be selective at the plate, so can Ichiro. It will only improve his game.

Posted by: David Pinto at September 22, 2004 09:37 PM

So what's next for Scott Miller? Write an article tomorrow complain Ichiro being selfish of refusing to come out during tonight's game when Mariners blow out the Angels so he can get more ABs?

Posted by: Frank at September 23, 2004 01:14 AM

At this rate he may actually break the 154-game mark!

Posted by: Adam Villani at September 23, 2004 03:03 AM

While it's obvious that a higher on base percentage is always a good thing it does not follow that if Ichiro walked more he would have a higher on base percentage. The assumption that it is possible to simply turn outs into walks simply through greater pitch selection is faulty. Along the way he'll also turn some hits into walks, and worse, some hits into outs. Stats are a great way of evaluating the value players produce but I don't think they act as very good prescriptions. If Vlad Guerrero was more selective at the plate he would have more walks but he also have less hits, homeruns etc.

Now Soriano . . . that's another story.

Posted by: Gaelan Murphy at September 23, 2004 04:03 PM