Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
December 11, 2003
Houston, We Have a Pitcher

It appears that Andy Pettitte has finalized a deal with the Houston Astros. The Yankees did try to keep him:


Pettitte made his decision after weighing a new offer from the Yankees on Wednesday night, another baseball source said, also on the condition of anonymity.

The Yankees' offered the left-handed starter $39 million for three years, about $3 million more annually than Houston. But the Astros play near Pettitte's hometown of Deer Park, apparently an important factor.


One thing about free agency that seems to escape critics of the system is that players don't always go for the most money. For the most part, the differences in money offered are small; players often have personal reasons outweigh the finanical considerations.

As for what this means for the clubs, I've always found Pettitte an interesting pitcher. For his career, he's allowed a .330 OBA, but his effective OBA is much lower, since he removes lots of batters through pickoffs and inducing double plays. In the last three seasons, he's also greatly reduced the number of walks he issues and increased the number of strikeouts. His HR rate will probably go up with the Astros due to the park configuration, but he should still be a winner with that team.

The Yankees, on the other hand, are now short a starter. There is a rumor that the Yankees are about to trade Jeff Weaver for Kevin Brown, but that story also seems to have disappeared from ESPN's web site, so I don't know how true it is. Weaver for Brown would be a great deal for the Yankees (Weaver for a box of baseballs would be a great deal for the Yankees), but it would continue to make them too right-handed and old.

The loss of Pettitte, the problems with the Sheffield deal seem to be signaling a Yankees front office in turmoil. That's good for all the teams that are seriously trying to compete against them over the next few years. If I were the Orioles, I'd wrap up Guerrero as quick as I can to prevent the Yankees from changing their mind on Sheffield.


Posted by David Pinto at 10:35 AM | Free Agents | TrackBack (0)
Comments

How ironic is this? According to BP's PECOTA card, Pettitte's top comp? Kevin Brown who scored a 42 (which is pretty good). After age 31, Brown put together his five best seasons in a row; his highest era during that period was 3.00. If the Astros get that kind of production out of Pettitte, than this was a terrific deal for them. But by signing both Kevin Brown and Gary Sheffield, the Yankees opted away from Pettitte and Vlad Guerrero. This is reflective of a disturbing trend on the part of the Yankees: getting a similar player for more money and 5 years too late.

Posted by: Daniel at December 11, 2003 11:49 AM

I don't think the Yankees "opted" away from Andy. I think Andy "opted" away from the Yankees. The Yankees gave Andy a healthy offer, more than the Astros so the decision to leave the Yankees falls solely on Pettitte.

Andy seems like a highly moral, family first type. Plus he's got 4 WS rings and no guarantee of another with the Yankees. So why not go home, still pitch for a contender but not subject himself to the zoo like atmosphere of the Bronx. It's pretty clear that Andy is not a hypocrite. That said he's a jerk for leaving.

S

Posted by: steve at December 11, 2003 12:46 PM

Yeah, Andy wanted to either pitch in Houston or extract way too much money from the Yankees to pitch there. I heard that he was asking for a LOT more from the Yanks to change his mind. I don't think that he's really worth it. Is he worth $13M? $14M? That's a lot of money. I'd rather sign someone like Bautista from Arizona and then use the extra money on Vlad.

I still can't believe that the Yankees aren't going after Vlad. Does Vlad REALLY not want to play for the Yankees?

Posted by: sabernar at December 11, 2003 12:50 PM

You can't blame that Yankees too much on this one, according to espn.com: "the Yankees' last offer was for $39 million over three years" which is $7,500,000 more than the Astro's offer. He REALLY wanted to play in Houston.

Posted by: sabernar at December 11, 2003 12:58 PM

It is still a sad day, a sad day indeed. As a Texas state resident currently (displaced from NY), and a NYY fan, I am catching quite a bit of grief here in the office. They aren't even Astros fans, they are Rangers fans, but they are happy for some reason.

Starting rotation if everything remains the same looks something like this now:

Mussina
Vazquez
Contreras
Lieber
Weaver

That does not instill confidence in my Yankee heart. 1-2 is ok. 3 is still untested. 4 is returning from injury and 5 is, well as David mentioned, a box of baseballs would be better. George needs to be drawn and quartered. Throw in Pettitte to that rotation and remove Weaver, and whammo, looks sharp.

Posted by: Tom F. at December 11, 2003 01:06 PM

This is why I hate George!! Spend all your time signing other players. Yeah spend time wining and dining Sheff while they let Andy walk away. Yeah they offered him lots of money but why wait til the last minute. Should have made him an offer earlier before even Andy had a chance to look at Houston. Even the Red Sox offered Andy $43 mill. Now stupid George will pay that same amount for Kevin Brown. I wish George would sell the Yanks and go back to Ohio.

Posted by: manish at December 11, 2003 01:40 PM

I'm not so sure letting Pettitte go was a mistake, or even a miscalculation. If he's healthy, Kevin Brown represents an upgrade; think of the record he could post with Yankees quality run support. Yes, I know that's a big if, and yes, I'm aware of what Pettitte meant to Yanks fans, but I think overpaying for Pettitte when he wanted to go home and when there could conceivably be a better option on the table for similar money would be a bigger mistake.

Plus, getting Weaver out of town's gotta mollify the fans a little bit, right? If you like the Yankees these days, you've got to be rooting for the uniform anyway. No sense getting attached to their roster when it changes so drastically every year.

Posted by: Mike M. at December 11, 2003 02:04 PM

His effective OBA is decreased by his ability to get away with balking on every throw over to first base.

Posted by: Matt Davis at December 11, 2003 03:00 PM

Everyone on this thread seems to forget that Brown hasn't been healthy for several years; he's hardly given the Dodgers what they hoped they were getting when Malone spent Murdoch's money on him.

Posted by: Linkmeister at December 11, 2003 04:29 PM

He was healthy last year: 211 innings. I'm also assuming he's passed some sort of physical.

Posted by: Daniel at December 11, 2003 04:43 PM

Pettitte for Brown isn't such a bad deal. Who knows if Brown will be healthy but then again who knows if Pettitte will get blown up without Yankeesque run support.

Who know if either of them will get hit by a bus? The sad thing here is that Pettitte is tied up in a lot of Yankee winning history. He's been old faithful and seems like a pretty decent guy. I can't fault him for wanting to pitch closer to his family and I can't fault the yankees for not doing enough to keep him. I think they did a lot financially.

Noone's fault, just sad for a Yankee fan who always appreciated the quiet, tough-as-nails demeanor of Andy Pettitte. He'll be missed.

Here's hoping Kevin Brown can give the Bullpen (Brought to you by Citibank) a bunch of quality starts to preserve.

Posted by: steve at December 11, 2003 06:10 PM