Baseball Musings: Colon Transplant

December 10, 2003

Colon Transplant

The Anaheim Angels have signed Bartolo Colon to a 4-year, $48 million contract. Bill Stoneman tells us why:

The Angels are hoping one of the times he will be pitching is deep into October. Even with one of the finest bullpens in the major leagues, the Angels finished sixth in ERA last year, third in their division. It was while watching the Florida Marlins dispatch the New York Yankees in the World Series two months ago that Stoneman cemented his strategy of concentrating on arms.

"If you don't have pitching, particularly starting pitching, it's so difficult to get into the playoffs and even when you're in, to win," Stoneman said. "Those of us who paid attention to the Marlins saw that. It wasn't just their starting pitching, but those young starters really did the job for them."

One of those starters in particular, Josh Beckett, had a fastball so electric most hitters looked baffled against him. By adding Escobar and Colon, Stoneman hopes to build a rotation with so much raw power that opponents will have uncomfortable series against Anaheim week in and week out.

Colon certainly can get the ball to the catcher's mitt quickly, with a high-90s fastball. He's also one of the most durable pitchers in the game, having spent all of three weeks on the disabled list in his eight-year career. Colon pitched complete games in four of his six September starts for the Chicago White Sox last season.

The thing that bothers me about Colon, however, is his falloff in strikeouts over the last two seasons. Through the 2001 season, Colon averaged 7.86 K per 9; 2002-2002 that was 6.10. That strikes me as a pitcher on his way down. But at the same time, his ERA has dropped from 4.09 to 3.41 over the same time periods. A thrower becoming a pitcher? Better defense behind him? It's hard to say. I remember sitting behind home plate at Fenway a few years ago as Colon matched up with Pedro. He threw every bit as hard as Pedro did. The difference that struck me was that Pedro had better control of his pitches. Pedro could put his out pitch exactly where he wanted. Colon sometimes missed, and it would result in big hits. Maybe Colon has improved that part of the game.

It's good to see the new owner of the Angels actively trying to win. It appears trades may be in the offing for position players coming from the overstocked starting staff. I don't know how much better the Angels are going to be, but it's clear they are not being neglected.

Posted by David Pinto at 10:03 AM | Free Agents | TrackBack (0)

Comments

This move is a year too late, I think. They've shored up their rotation well--Colon and Washburn are as a good a 1-2 as any in the AL--but what's left of their lineup? Garret Anderson is terrific and underrated by sabermatricians. But Salmon is old, Glaus has stunted in his growth...their lineup is shallow and weak. With the A's ready to roll, the Mariners still hanging in there (maybe), and the possibility of an improved Texas Rangers team (depending on A-Rod), I'd be surprised if the Angels finish above third again.

Posted by: Daniel at December 10, 2003 10:09 AM

Daniel,

I'm not so sure. It sounds as if Anaheim isn't done "wowing" the baseball world just yet. There seem to be many rumors in the rumor mill about future plans. Here's something that might be interesting if your an Angels fan. The below quote is from "The Transaction Guy" in relation to the Colon trade:

"Whether this move necessitates a Jarrod Washburn trade/non-tender will be a story for another date, but if not, the Angels will have a fantastic rotation next year. If Washburn leaves than Aaron Sele has a spot, but expect Bobby Jenks and Ervin Santana to fly through the system. I see this team building towards 2006, when their great farm system will begin yielding their best results, and players like Kelvim Escobar and Bartolo Colon will be seeing their final days under contract. Anaheim still will sign a 1B (Palmiero or Travis Lee), and they are in the market for a shortstop, whether it be Nomar Garciaparra by trade or Miguel Tejada in a signing. The Winter Meetings will really dictate who becomes the favorite in the AL West, as no team looks too fearful as of yet."

Posted by: Tom F. at December 10, 2003 10:58 AM

Correction, I said Colon trade and meant to say signing. Not enough coffee yet this morning.

Posted by: Tom F. at December 10, 2003 10:59 AM

Just a terrible contract, IMO. Colon's FIP was around 1.00, which indicates a DIPs ERA over 4.00. He's now over 30. Had 17 Win Shares last year. Strikeout rate is declining. etc. etc.

$12M a year for four years is WAY too much.

By the way, I haven't seen any posts on this deal from The Transaction Guy. Must be a browser problem. Sheesh.

Posted by: studes at December 10, 2003 11:18 AM

"Colon and Washburn are as a good a 1-2 as any in the AL"

That's just not true. Mussina/Vazquez, Martinez/Schilling, Mulder/Hudson... I'd rather have any of those combinations over Colon/Washburn. Heck, I might take Halladay and spare parts over Colon and Washburn (10-15, 4.43). I don't think that 1-2 punch scares the A's, Yankees, or Sox, or many other teams.

Posted by: Derek at December 10, 2003 11:24 AM

Studes,

My fault. I had switched my browser out and thought I was still on The Transaction Guy. What I quoted came from "Wait 'til next year" at the following link: http://nextbaseball.blogspot.com/

Told you I hadn't had enough coffee. I'm only on my 5th cup, I need at least a pot.

Posted by: Tom F. at December 10, 2003 11:29 AM

That's ironic: I post a comment about how the Angels won't be that good next year, and then I get slammed for giving them too much credit on their supposed strength next year.

Well, pardon me if I haven't boarded the gravy train yet, but I'm just not sold yet, Tom. Where's their offense coming from? And let's suppose that Colon and Washburn have great years, I'm really not sold on Escobar yet. My feeling is that they completely overpaid for someone who's flashed tons of talent, but has yet to put a full season together as a starter.

The Angels spent a pretty penny this off-season, and may not be done. I'm just skeptical that they have the revenue base to keep this up: they're the kind of mid-market team that should be trying to build from the inside, not profligately buy free agents and mortgage their long-term fiscal solvency for the sake of making a run in baseball's toughest division. If they pick up Nomar or Tejada they'll be a better team next year, but the marginal improvement still won't catch the A's (or the wild card), and they'll have sunk their payroll for the next four years. Bad move in my opinion.

Posted by: Daniel at December 10, 2003 11:35 AM

Got it, Tom F. Thanks.

Natural mistake, by the way. Bryan even started his entry saying that he was going to play the role of the transaction guy today. Good to see all the bloggers filling in for each other!

Posted by: studes at December 10, 2003 11:58 AM

Daniel,

I wasn't slamming you at all. I just merely said I'm not so sure. I am by no means on any Angels gravy train. I'm a Yankees fan. Just pointing out some stuff I read elsewhere.

Posted by: Tom F. at December 10, 2003 12:00 PM

The Angels are a mid-market team? Last, I checked, the Los Angeles area was a pretty big media market.

Posted by: John Y. at December 10, 2003 12:24 PM

The Angels are major market team that have been starved by cheap owners since the 1986 season (Jackie Autyr & disney). In December 2001, Disney Sports head Paul Pressler told Bill Stoneman to make a team built to win now, and they suddenly did! And the fans came out in droves! A far cry from when Roger Clemens was a free agent and signed with Toronto in a year the Angels payroll decreased by more than the Rocket signed for. Owner Arte Moreno knows that with the chaos surrounding the Dodgers, the next three seasons are the time to strike, to ensure the region takes this team seriously on a permanent basis. The malls fifty miles from the Staples center are empty during Laker playoff games. So Call is a giant geographical locus, and Anaheim is more centrally located in it than Downtown L.A.'s Dodgers. THe whole inland empire is a twenty mile ride away. We are talking a base of fifteen million people. And Moreno is making edison field fan friendly, and (for a ballpark) surprisingly inexpensive.

ON THE FIELD: There are currently 18 players on the 25 man roster who won a world championship 14 months ago. Don't count them out.

Posted by: Halofan at December 11, 2003 12:19 AM

But isn't that exactly the problem, Halofan? That they haven't substantively changed their roster since they won the championship? They had half their roster have career years and failed to recognize that as a long term problem. If you think Eckstein is going to be a productive shortstop this year, you're dreaming. Glaus is in decline, Salmon is just that much older...I'm sorry, I just can't fathom how this team is better than the A's, and with the Red Sox stacked, I can't imagine how they can win the wild card. They're not a bad team, they're a second tier team, and in the central they would probably be competitive. But they're stuck in a tough division, and it'll take another miracle like 2002 for them to win, I think.

Posted by: Daniel at December 11, 2003 10:21 AM

What else can i say after all this ?!

Posted by: Henning Emily at January 19, 2004 09:56 PM