Baseball Musings: New Blog

December 04, 2003

New Blog

Mark McClusky, a former SI writer and editor has a new blog, McClusky.com. I like this post about the A's battle for Foulke:

What's interesting about this is that Beane has made a little industry of moving closers at the point that they become overpaid. Tying up $24 million in a closer goes against what he's always done -- and that makes me wonder what he's thinking.

It seems to me that Beane thinks the window for this team might be closing, and he's probably right. Miguel Tejada is probably gone already -- Beane told MLB.com that "I haven't spoken to Miguel's agent. I don't know if we're waiting for anything, we're just sort of moving on." Chavez is a free agent after 2004, and the Big Three are signed through 2005.

Or, it could be that Beane thinks that he finally has a closer that's worth the money. Six million a year isn't really all that much for a quality closer. And of course, attendance has gone up the last three years, so it's quite possible the A's have more money to spend on players.

Posted by David Pinto at 02:31 PM | Blogs | TrackBack (0)

Comments

I agree with you. The point of "Selling the Closer" was not that closers are always overvalued/overpaid - just that most are. Foulke may be an exception given his pretty long track record and ability to pitch more innings like a 70s-style fireman.

Posted by: Dr. Manhattan at December 4, 2003 03:30 PM

I've been wondering about this, too. I'm a bit surprised by Beane's most recent actions - dumping Lilly for Kielty made some sense, but taking on Kotsay for Long and Hernandez seemed like a spite move (warranted for Long; Hernandez is just stuck in the middle), esepcially because it locks up ~$6M/year for *three*, not *two*, years. And I'm not sure that Kotsay is more productive than Guillen (though that's probably prove-able based on win shares, or, given Kotsay's injuries, maybe not).

Actually, I think Beane couldn't resign Guillen before he signs Tejada - because it'd be admitting that the A's don't, actually, want to re-sign Tejada - and I think *that* is a dirty little secret that nobody is talking about. They can find someone to play short decently, they can cobble together that kind of production from other players (someone's gonna field those grounders and get those ABs; as long as the replacement(s) hit, there won't be much nostalgia).

I envision three scenarios:
1) The market for Beane-bred closers is vanishing. Isringhausen is flailing. Koch imploded. If Foulke goes elsewhere, would he be used the same way (how many closers get *NINE* victories? I can just hear Ed Rooney now, "He won *NINE* games, Mrs. Bueller.")? There could be a murmur around the league that A's closers put up good numbers, but can't replicate them elsewhere. I think that's the fault of other managers/GMs, but I don't count on M/GMs to see/admit that; I think they'd rather sit out Beane's Closer-palooza sale.
2) Beane wants to drive up Foulke's price before letting him go to Boston - this says, "We tried, but we just couldn't pay market value." And it takes money out of Boston's pocket.
3) In order to keep the A's respectable (in terms of not flouting baseball traditions/whims too much and enabling the players to believe in both the numerical stuff and their own potential/power/value), Beane needs to re-sign people periodically (not Giambi, Damon, or Izzy; but Dye and Hatteberg). I think what Beane *knows* is that few stars and not many more mid-level players are worth resigning at their fair market value, but that he has to pretend that he cares about at least a few people, or else it's a buzzkill for morale.

I think there's a plan - there always is - but I'm concerned about where the money to resign most of (Chavez/Hudson/Mulder/Zito) will come from. I know Dye's salary goes away after 2004 (just in time for Chavez to get re-signed, hopefully), but I sure as hell hope Kotsay/Foulke don't cost the A's a chance at keeping their big four (though I'm sure Beane's thinking about this already)...

p.s. David, thanks for creating a comment section.

Posted by: Chris at December 4, 2003 09:23 PM

You can forget about Hudson/Mulder/Zito being resigned. If anything, I can only see 1 of the 3 being re-signed, if even that. The contracts that they will command will be entirely too high for the A's payroll. I suppose there are two things that could work in the A's favor.

1. The three of them pitch terrible in their contract year, and that may not help much based on previous performance.

2. From somewhere, money falls into their program after '04. Maybe attendance will reach an all time high.

Nah. The A's will be Trio-less. Jeremy Brown will have to be a hittin' fool to make up for when these guys leave.

I see George drooling already.

Posted by: Tom F. at December 5, 2003 11:25 AM

The A's will probably be able to sign one of the three. I'm guessing Mulder.

Foulke to the Red Sox would be huge for them though. Just so they know they have a dependable closer would lift them. And with Williamson/Timlin/Embree in the bullpen they look good already.

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