Robert Saunders writes about Moneyball:

The last chapter of the book got me thinking about the problem the A's face (and any team faces) in a short series: luck. If their success is assured in the long-run but not the short-run, I wonder if the A's then represent this decade's version of the 90s Braves, only emphasizing offense more than pitching.

And, if that's the case, I wonder if for post-season series whether some deviation from long-run strategy is not only sensible but mandatory. Just as fast-breaking offenses in other sports slow down the games in basketball or as Dallas this year even changed defenses as an adaptation, I wonder if there aren't circumstances where it makes sense to deviate from the "no small ball" rules.

For example, while the typical steal after a game opening hit or walk might have a negative impact on runs, I wonder if there are not circumstances when given who's pitching/catching, who's on base, who's at the plate, etc. might not auger for a steal. Or even sometimes a sacrifice bunt. Just because on average a strategy is poor, doesn't mean there aren't circumstances when it is advantageous and that you'd prefer to have the runs on the board as a hedge against luck.

For a long time I've felt tha the job of a manager is use players in a way that maximizes the players abilities. So if you have a pitcher who's good, but not great, try to get him more starts against the teams that don't hit well. If you have a batter with great power but poor on-base numbers, put him down in the order behind the OBA guys so he can drive in runs. If you have a pitcher who allows a lot of baserunners, but also gets a lot of ground balls, make sure you have the best middle infield defense you can behind him. And all of these decisions are based on who your opponent is, what stadium you are in, the health of others on the team, etc.

Now, during a season, I would think a team's management would come up with an overall strategy, which would be smart to include "minimize little ball." However, there are going to be days when you walk into a tough pitcher's park (Dodger Stadium) or you are facing a great pitcher (link Pedro) or both (Kevin Brown at Dodger Stadium). On those days, a manager needs to realize that the three-run HR is not going to be plentiful and should adjust his strategy to try to create more opportunities to score.

You don't throw the play book away automatically in the playoffs, but you sure should be willing to make adjustments to it. And it's a good idea to do something a little different, just to keep from being predictable. But unless the situation calls for little ball, I would not switch to it just for the sake of switching.