Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
February 16, 2003
Odalis Understands:

Steve Megargee of TCPalm.com writes about how Odalis Perez wants to win 20 this year. And Perez understands why it may be possible:


Perez ranked fourth in the National League last year with a 3.00 ERA. He won 15 games even though the Dodgers scored three runs or less in 17 of his 32 starts.

"We have a lot better team than last year," Perez said. "Last year we had one real power hitter (Shawn Green). on the team. This year Brian (Jordan) is healthy and we've got (Fred) McGriff with (Paul) LoDuca and Shawn Green. We should score a lot of runs."


So Perez realizes that with the same ERA, more run production will mean more wins. Interestingly, Perez' run support was 4.9 per 9 IP last year, better than the Dodgers overall runs per game. But his distribution of run in support isn't normal; he pitched in 5 games where the Dodgers scored 9 or more runs (and won all five), but in over half his starts (17), the Dodgers scored two or fewer runs (he was 3-9). So even with the same run support this year, if the distribution is convex rather than concave, Perez should win more games.

One other thing Perez could do to win more games in start more often. Perez averaged 94 pitches per start last year. He's efficient. Of his three complete games last year, two were under 100 pitches. Tracy should consider using him on a five-day rotation, rather than a five-man rotation, as the Diamondbacks do with Schilling and Johnson.

It's nice to see players with winning attitudes (especially on the Dodgers) coupled with a realization about how teams win games. I think with 32 starts 20 wins will be tough for Perez, but I would expect him to improve to 18.


Posted by David Pinto at 08:30 AM | Baseball