ESPN.com has an AP article speculating on Schilling winning 30. Thirty wins has become almost impossible to achieve for two reasons:

1. Real five man rotations


2. The disappearance of the complete game

By real five man rotations, I mean what the Red Sox are doing. When the Red Sox have a day off, they don't drop their fifth starter from the rotation. So their best pitchers start every five games instead of every five days. The DBacks, on the other had, seem to have adapted Tony La Russa's strategy of 1990, where he used his fifth starters in only 24 games. That gave each of his big four about two more starts (that was the year Welch won 27 with 35 starts). Schilling is going every 5 days, so he could get up to 37 starts. That gives him a better shot.

The tendancy of managers to go to the bullpen earlier and earlier also hurts starters decisions. There's more of a chance that someone else will blow the game and cost you a win. In the NL, the average starter goes 6 innings. So there is a 1/3 of a game that is out of his control. Schilling is averaging 7 1/3 innings per game, so his relievers only have to get 5 outs on average. That also gives him a better shot.

I don't think Schilling will get 30. I really think pitchers need to get over 40 starts to have a shot at that. But it looks like things are as favorable as can be for him to make a run at it.