Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
April 29, 2002
Red Resurgence:

Sometimes stats don't tell you anything. Sometimes they point right to the answer. The Cincinnati Reds are in first place in the NL Central today, and in fact have the third best record in the NL. And yet, when I look at the hitting and pitching, they look like a .500 team. The pitching has been good; the team ranks 5th in the NL with a 3.53 ERA. The hitting hasn't been great; they are 10th in runs with 101 (they've allowed 99). In general, when I see something like this, I immediately think luck. In the case of the Reds, however, we can isolate the luck exactly.

Reds starters are 8-8. The relievers are 7-1, with 3 blown saves. The relievers do have a much better ERA than the starters, (3.86 for staters, 3.07 for the relievers). On top of this, the Reds are good in one clutch hitting category. Look at the close and late category below:


BATTING SPLITS

AVG AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS TBB SO OBP SLG
Total .252 798 101 201 34 5 18 98 17 10 83 179 .329 .375

None on .252 444 --- 112 18 3 12 12 0 0 41 99 .325 .387
Runners on .251 354 --- 89 16 2 6 86 17 10 42 80 .334 .359

None on/out .266 203 --- 54 10 1 5 5 0 0 14 45 .320 .399
Scoring Posn .215 223 --- 48 8 1 1 71 8 2 28 53 .304 .274
ScPos/2 Out .208 106 --- 22 4 0 1 31 4 2 21 25 .339 .274

Close & Late .341 123 --- 42 3 1 3 24 4 4 14 25 .423 .455
Bases Loaded .263 19 --- 5 1 0 0 15 0 0 1 3 .273 .316

So the Reds have been able to win by having the starters keep them in games, having a tough bullpen, and great late clutch hitting. They are 10-4 in games decided by one or two runs.

Of course, the Reds claim that it's all chemistry. :-)


Posted by David Pinto at 11:22 AM | Baseball