Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
January 30, 2008
Inside the Deal

Bob Klapisch details the inner workings of the Santana deal:

This was late Monday night, about 12 hours before the Mets would pounce upon their most dramatic trade in recent history. Twins' general manager Bill Smith, in a panic to move Johan Santana, called the Yankees and admitted surrender: Phil Hughes was no longer a prerequisite, he said. Instead, the Twins asked for Ian Kennedy, Melky Cabrera and a top prospect. Would the Yankees still be interested, Smith wondered?

The Yankees considered the idea, but only briefly and not seriously. Their passion for Santana started waning as far back as December, when Andy Pettitte announced he was returning to the Bronx. The Yankees' internal straw vote was unanimous: The Twins had waited too long. On Tuesday Yankees' GM Brian Cashman told Smith he was passing on the deal, prompting the Twins to call the Red Sox. Equally devastating news awaited. Both Jacoby Ellsbury and Jon Lester were unavailable.

The Red Sox, in lock step with the Yankees, had essentially backed out, too.

The Mets were smart enough to know they were in the driver's seat, and took full advantage of that position.


Posted by David Pinto at 12:11 PM | Trades | TrackBack (0)
Comments

So, is anyone going to praise the Yankees for 1) not gutting their farm system for the flashy superstar, and 2) not opening Steinbrenner's wallet to (over)pay yet again for the flashy superstar, but rather going with the homegrown young talent?

I won't be holding my breath.

Posted by: rbj at January 30, 2008 01:31 PM

Probably not since the Yankees can't really overpay for anyone. I think it was a huge mistake for the Yankees to hold on to Hughes. It's very unlikely he'll be as good as Santana over the next five years, and if he turns out to be really good, the Yankees can just sign him when he becomes a free agent. I've argued before that the Yankees best strategy is to make the rest of the majors their farm teams and pick and choose what free agents they want every year. Luckily for me (and the rest of baseball) the Yankees aren't smart enough to do this.

Also, I've read places that Santana was holding his trade veto over the Twins heads. Does anyone seriously think he would veto a trade at the deadline to a contender? I don't. In fact, the best thing for him (or at least the way for him to make the most money) would be to play half the season for the Twins, get traded and lead his new team to a WS title and then hit the open market. He'd make a lot more money that way then he would for the Mets.

Posted by: Tom at January 30, 2008 01:46 PM

Tom, I agree. The Twins should have called Johan's bluff here. No way he refuses a trade to a contender at the deadline.

Posted by: David Pinto at January 30, 2008 02:35 PM

I don't think that Johan is out of the American League for long. I am betting that the Yankees and Red Sox will see what Santana does this year, hoping that his value will diminish, and then be able to offer the Mets a way out of his contract extention. I think the Yankees are playing there cards right here, by not buying the #1 pitcher in the league until he proves that he is more human (which he began to show in 07 season).

Posted by: jedidink at January 30, 2008 04:52 PM

I can do nothing but laugh at how poorly the twins played this entire game. They overplayed their hand and wound up with $0.25 on the $1.00, at best. What a joke.

Congratulations to the Mets fans.

Posted by: Derek at January 30, 2008 04:56 PM

Congratulations to the Mets fans.
For what?

Maybe Gomez and Humber will pan out in the short term and maybe not. If at any point Ellsbury and Lester wer available or for that matter Hughes and Cabrera were available that looks a lot more attractive to me. It's hard to see what the Twinks got by selling early that they couldn't have gotten later.

Posted by: Bandit at January 30, 2008 05:36 PM

Various people have opined that the Twins should have called Santana's bluff. Why do people think it's a bluff? I think there's a real chance that it wasn't, and so do various media sources (ESPN had a story up that I can't find now that Santana basically called the Twins and said "deal me now, or I'll announce in a press conference that I'll block all in-season deals").

Assume for the moment that Johan Santana's primary goal is to get compensated as highly as possible, and that his secondary goal is to go to a team with serious World Series chances. [And if you think those two should be reversed, that's fine, but I'd bet they're not - and they wouldn't be in my shoes(1).]

His goal is to get the best deal he can, as soon as he can (before he gets hurt or loses his stuff). That means getting traded to a team that will meet his price before the season. Once the season starts, his best deal will come in the offseason, with teams bidding for him.

Turn to the deal. After Zito's deal last year, there's no way Santana should be content with 5/100. Does anyone seriously think that Santana's track record doesn't justify a hefty increase over Zito's salary? He should be looking for 7/140 or more. [Zito's deal is clearly the baseline, like it or not.]

From Santana's point of view, the only leverage he holds is a no-trade clause. The way he uses that leverage is to tell the Twins he'll block any in-season trades. Whether he'd follow through on that is another question, but his best action is convincing the Twins that he would follow through.

Moreover, at the deadline, his incentive to accept a trade is minimal. Why wouldn't he just wait two months and hit the open market? He'll make just as much money either way; he'd just be doing the Twins a favor by accepting the trade. It's not like anyone likes moving their families twice in three months, after all - there's a cost to accepting the trade, and very little upside.

Finally, at the deadline, offers aren't necessarily going to improve, particularly if Santana continues to hold the veto over the Twins and/or make it clear that he won't sign an extension if he's traded in-season. At that point, one huge chunk of his value - the right to exclusive negotiation, leading to below-market rates - is gone.

In other words, whether or not you like the deal, Santana's interests aren't served by bluffing here. If he wants the best deal for him, he should use his leverage now; he'll never have more influence over where he ends up.

1. I would argue that there are more teams with serious World Series chances than teams that would pay Johan Santana top dollar, and so he should prioritize them in that order. In other words, he can win a World Series in more places than he can get paid.

Posted by: Subrata Sircar at January 30, 2008 08:20 PM

I can sort of buy that reasoning Subrata but I don't think it's correct. If Santana is healthy and pitching well, why would he veto a trade? Going to a contender wouldn't hurt him at all and really could only enhance his value if he pitched real well done the stretch. I can understand why he wants to sign a lucrative extension now as it's better to have the money now then later, but what does that have to do with the Twins? If the Twins were 20 games out and the Yankees and Red Sox were behind the 2nd place team in the AL Central, don't you think they'd give up a lot to get him knowing it would likely push them into the playoffs? Why would Santana turn down a trade to those teams? Just to spite the Twins? That doesn't make any sense at all.

Posted by: Tom at January 30, 2008 11:37 PM

Tom, I think the better question is why would he approve a mid-season trade? Isn't it better for him to get traded before the season, no matter what he's looking for?

The best way for him to get traded now is to tell the Twins to make a deal or else. That probably only works if the Twins were convinced that he would invoke his no-trade clause i.e. that it's not a bluff.

And by a couple of accounts, that's exactly what he did:

http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/14790236.html

In other words, whether or not he would approve a mid-season trade, it's in his best interest to convince the Twins that he wouldn't. And it seems that he did.


Posted by: Subrata Sircar at January 31, 2008 03:19 AM
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