Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
September 26, 2007
Massive Tie Scenario

The Colorado Rockies held on to defeat the Dodgers last night 9-7. Each team scored in each of the last four half innings, but the Rockies won that mini-game, too, 3-2. Colorado gains on every team except the Padres, who won on a Giles home in the ninth inning. Here's the update on the highest winning percentage outcome resulting in a five-way tie:

TeamRecord
Rockies5-0
Phillies5-0
Padres4-1
Mets3-2
Diamondbacks2-3

Note that because the Rockies finish with three games against the Diamondbacks, those two teams have to be separated by an odd number of games going into the series. If Arizona splits the next two and the Rockies win both, a tie can't happen. Over the next two games we either want the teams to have the same record, or for Arizona to lose two and the Rockies to win two.

But with Atlanta winning last night, there's now a remote chance of a six-way tie.

TeamRecord
Braves5-0
Rockies3-2
Phillies3-2
Padres2-3
Mets1-4
Diamondbacks0-5

The problem with this scenario is that very specific outcomes are required. The Phillies have to lose two to Atlanta and win their last three games. The Rockies have to lose their next two to Los Angeles, then sweep the Diamondbacks. But there is the kernel of another five way tie here. If you drop Arizona from the list, then there is a little more flexibility in getting those five teams even at the end of the season.

So with five days left, we have a long shot at a six-way tie, and two possibilities for a five way tie. On top of all that, the Brewers gained a game on the Cubs, so we could end up with a tie in the NL Central as well. There is a very small chance that the regular season ends with half the National League teams still in the playoff hunt.

As for today, here are the best results:

  • Atlanta or Philadelphia wins. This is the tough one to call. The Braves winning keeps the six-way alive, but lessens the chance of a five-way involving the DBacks, which is the most likely five way. Root for the Braves here to keep the most teams alive.
  • Pittsburgh defeats Arizona. Not necessary for a five-way, but the more Arizona loses, the less the need for a Colorado sweep.
  • Washington defeats the New York Mets.
  • Colorado defeats Los Angeles. Tomorrow will present critical games for Arizona and Colorado, as they need to be an odd number of games apart going into their three-game series.
  • Giants or Padres win. It's probably better for the Padres to lose for the six-way, but win for the higher probability five-way.

As always, I'm not rooting for or against any team here. I understand there are fans who want their team to win outright. But a six-way tie results in two days of playoff to determine the division winners, then two days of playoffs to determine the wild card. Who doesn't want seven extra single elimination games?

Correction: Fixed the six-way chart.


Posted by David Pinto at 07:57 AM | Division Races | TrackBack (0)
Comments

FYI - I think there is an obvious error in your 6-way tie chart (AZ). And I'm sure we all know what we mean.

Posted by: Capybara at September 26, 2007 01:38 PM
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