Baseball Musings: Probabilistic Model of Range, 2005, Second Basemen and Grounders

January 26, 2006

Probabilistic Model of Range, 2005, Second Basemen and Grounders

Here's a follow up to the overall ratings for second basemen, this time just looking at ground balls (minimum 500 ground balls in play when on the field):

Probabilistic Model of Range, Second Basemen, 2005, Original Model, Groundballs Only (Grounders + Bunt Grounders)
Player	InPlay	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Difference
Nick Punto	823	169	152.10	0.205	0.185	0.02054
Ryan Freel	540	113	102.38	0.209	0.190	0.01966
Junior Spivey	752	156	143.90	0.207	0.191	0.01609
Jamey Carroll	581	120	111.36	0.207	0.192	0.01487
Adam Kennedy	1422	302	280.93	0.212	0.198	0.01482
Chase Utley	1675	325	300.24	0.194	0.179	0.01478
Orlando Hudson	1604	333	309.35	0.208	0.193	0.01474
Craig Counsell	1920	369	341.11	0.192	0.178	0.01453
Luis Castillo	1509	291	271.70	0.193	0.180	0.01279
Jose C Lopez	615	134	126.40	0.218	0.206	0.01237
Brian Roberts	1784	353	332.84	0.198	0.187	0.01130
Mark Grudzielanek	1901	365	347.33	0.192	0.183	0.00930
Mark Ellis	1334	273	262.67	0.205	0.197	0.00774
Rich Aurilia	801	148	142.17	0.185	0.177	0.00728
Placido Polanco	1417	255	246.01	0.180	0.174	0.00635
Tony Graffanino	873	157	151.50	0.180	0.174	0.00629
Jeff Kent	1835	352	341.60	0.192	0.186	0.00567
Ronnie Belliard	1795	354	343.99	0.197	0.192	0.00558
Tadahito Iguchi	1637	311	302.03	0.190	0.185	0.00548
Omar Infante	890	150	145.16	0.169	0.163	0.00544
Marcus Giles	2006	401	391.69	0.200	0.195	0.00464
Nick Green	974	169	164.83	0.174	0.169	0.00428
Ray Durham	1596	282	283.31	0.177	0.178	-0.00082
Craig Biggio	1725	327	331.95	0.190	0.192	-0.00287
Ruben A Gotay	1046	200	203.16	0.191	0.194	-0.00302
Jose Vidro	889	170	173.04	0.191	0.195	-0.00342
Luis Rivas	524	88	90.19	0.168	0.172	-0.00418
Todd Walker	1136	214	219.18	0.188	0.193	-0.00456
Mark Bellhorn	1056	227	231.99	0.215	0.220	-0.00473
Luis A Gonzalez	907	174	178.52	0.192	0.197	-0.00498
Kazuo Matsui	791	161	165.74	0.204	0.210	-0.00599
Miguel Cairo	966	176	182.46	0.182	0.189	-0.00668
Aaron Miles	869	173	179.06	0.199	0.206	-0.00697
Jose Castillo	1293	211	223.38	0.163	0.173	-0.00958
Robinson Cano	1747	333	352.20	0.191	0.202	-0.01099
Alfonso Soriano	2136	383	406.87	0.179	0.190	-0.01118
Mark Loretta	1236	217	231.12	0.176	0.187	-0.01142
Freddy Sanchez	522	83	89.90	0.159	0.172	-0.01322
Rickie Weeks	1121	200	214.88	0.178	0.192	-0.01327
Jorge L Cantu	915	151	165.19	0.165	0.181	-0.01551
Bret Boone	1101	197	221.76	0.179	0.201	-0.02249

Probabilistic Model of Range, Second Basemen, 2005, Smoothed Visiting Player Model, Groundballs Only (Grounders + Bunt Grounders)
Player	InPlay	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Difference
Nick Punto	823	169	151.23	0.205	0.184	0.02159
Ryan Freel	540	113	102.83	0.209	0.190	0.01883
Craig Counsell	1920	369	336.93	0.192	0.175	0.01670
Brian Roberts	1784	353	324.04	0.198	0.182	0.01623
Orlando Hudson	1604	333	308.16	0.208	0.192	0.01548
Jamey Carroll	581	120	111.40	0.207	0.192	0.01481
Junior Spivey	752	156	144.88	0.207	0.193	0.01479
Adam Kennedy	1422	302	281.31	0.212	0.198	0.01455
Chase Utley	1675	325	301.94	0.194	0.180	0.01377
Jose C Lopez	615	134	125.67	0.218	0.204	0.01355
Luis Castillo	1509	291	272.98	0.193	0.181	0.01194
Mark Grudzielanek	1901	365	344.48	0.192	0.181	0.01079
Placido Polanco	1417	255	242.23	0.180	0.171	0.00901
Mark Ellis	1334	273	261.59	0.205	0.196	0.00856
Marcus Giles	2006	401	387.54	0.200	0.193	0.00671
Rich Aurilia	801	148	142.73	0.185	0.178	0.00658
Jeff Kent	1835	352	340.13	0.192	0.185	0.00647
Omar Infante	890	150	144.57	0.169	0.162	0.00610
Ronnie Belliard	1795	354	343.25	0.197	0.191	0.00599
Tony Graffanino	873	157	151.84	0.180	0.174	0.00591
Tadahito Iguchi	1637	311	302.37	0.190	0.185	0.00527
Nick Green	974	169	165.16	0.174	0.170	0.00394
Luis Rivas	524	88	88.57	0.168	0.169	-0.00109
Ray Durham	1596	282	284.05	0.177	0.178	-0.00128
Craig Biggio	1725	327	329.43	0.190	0.191	-0.00141
Jose Vidro	889	170	172.51	0.191	0.194	-0.00282
Ruben A Gotay	1046	200	203.59	0.191	0.195	-0.00343
Luis A Gonzalez	907	174	177.58	0.192	0.196	-0.00395
Todd Walker	1136	214	220.94	0.188	0.194	-0.00611
Aaron Miles	869	173	178.71	0.199	0.206	-0.00658
Mark Bellhorn	1056	227	234.07	0.215	0.222	-0.00670
Jose Castillo	1293	211	221.39	0.163	0.171	-0.00804
Miguel Cairo	966	176	184.52	0.182	0.191	-0.00882
Robinson Cano	1747	333	348.52	0.191	0.199	-0.00888
Kazuo Matsui	791	161	168.52	0.204	0.213	-0.00950
Mark Loretta	1236	217	231.37	0.176	0.187	-0.01162
Rickie Weeks	1121	200	213.42	0.178	0.190	-0.01197
Alfonso Soriano	2136	383	409.21	0.179	0.192	-0.01227
Freddy Sanchez	522	83	89.62	0.159	0.172	-0.01268
Jorge L Cantu	915	151	164.63	0.165	0.180	-0.01489
Bret Boone	1101	197	222.73	0.179	0.202	-0.02337

When you only look at the ability to turn grounders into outs, Orland Hudson loses his top spot among second basemen. You can see how his ability to chase pop ups put him in the overall #1 spot:

Breakdown for Orlando Hudson by Ball in Play Type, as Second Baseman, Original Model
In Play Type	InPlay	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Difference
Fly	1019	127	74.31	0.125	0.073	0.05170
Grounder	1554	330	305.95	0.212	0.197	0.01547
Liner	687	30	29.66	0.044	0.043	0.00050
Bunt Fly	8	0	0.00	0.000	0.000	0.00000
Bunt Grounder	50	3	3.40	0.060	0.068	-0.00800

Also, a bit disturbing for Red Sox fans who are watching the team appear to go for a bit less offense and a bit more defense in 2006, Mark Loretta ranks below both Bellhorn and Walker on ground balls.

Correction: Fixed the caption on the second table.

Posted by David Pinto at 08:50 AM | Probabilistic Model of Range | TrackBack (0)

Comments

Excellent work.

David, are you involved with the soon to be released book Defensive Bible? A section of the Hardball Times links to your work and says that book will have 3 years of similar data.

I'm hoping they'll have whatever data errors you found cleaned up before release.

Posted by: Rally Monkey at January 26, 2006 11:14 AM

This is outstanding work.

As a Blue Jay fan, I can say yes, Hudson does "take charge" and wave off his more inexperienced teamates quite often on discretionary high pop ups. In fact his histrionic gyrations calling off other fielders is well known and will be sorely missed by this observer.

Still, he does make his share of spectacular catches in shallow outfield and behind first. Hopefully in the future we can refine this sort of data.

I know your a busy man, but it would be instructive to see Aaron Hill's numbers at second ( he played in only 22 games and missed the cut off), but duly impressed the Blue-Jay brass in his limited trial. It would really help in analyzing the Glaus trade.

Great stuff , keep it up.

Posted by: Richard at January 26, 2006 12:47 PM

Any way we can get a breakdown on Hudson's popups? It doesn't appear that he was stealing popups from Russ Adams, who did worse in groundball-only than overall. Was he stealing from the 1B, or maybe just getting balls no one else could?

Posted by: BHW at January 26, 2006 01:26 PM

At some point, we'll publish graphs that show where players made (and didn't make) plays on a particular type of ball. Just like last year.

Posted by: David Pinto at January 26, 2006 01:31 PM

Great work.

I notice that Adam Kennedy jumps a few spots when non-groundballs are removed from the equation. Is it possible that this is the opposite of the Hudson Effect - that is, could Adam Kennedy's ranking suffer because another Angel infielder (Erstad?) takes charge on infield flies? If this is the case, can you think of any way to account for "fielder synergy," as it were.

Again, great job and very fascinating

Posted by: salb918 at January 26, 2006 02:13 PM

re: Centerfield and 2d base range factors

Wow! Chase utley and aaron rowand are in the top 5 in your defensive charts!!!

What good news for Phillies fans!!

And we all thought Utley wasn't as good as Polanco defensively!! Guess that wasn't true either!! Combine that with his power numbers and you have a true all-star.

--arthur John Kyriazis
--philly

Posted by: arthur john kyriazis at January 30, 2006 05:08 PM