Baseball Musings: Probabilistic Model of Range, 2005, Second Basemen, Revised

January 25, 2006

Probabilistic Model of Range, 2005, Second Basemen, Revised

The tables here correct the tables presented in this post.

Probabilistic Model of Range, Second Basemen, 2005, Original Model
Player	InPlay	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Difference
Orlando Hudson	3318	490	413.33	0.148	0.125	0.02311
Alex Cora	1006	125	105.69	0.124	0.105	0.01919
Nick Punto	1742	226	199.09	0.130	0.114	0.01545
Chase Utley	3490	456	404.40	0.131	0.116	0.01479
Ryan Freel	1216	153	141.43	0.126	0.116	0.00952
Jose C Lopez	1406	187	174.21	0.133	0.124	0.00910
Craig Counsell	3908	490	460.50	0.125	0.118	0.00755
Rich Aurilia	1792	201	190.00	0.112	0.106	0.00614
Junior Spivey	1767	207	196.67	0.117	0.111	0.00585
Mark Ellis	2880	372	355.52	0.129	0.123	0.00572
Luis Castillo	3068	386	370.42	0.126	0.121	0.00508
Tony Graffanino	1907	214	204.42	0.112	0.107	0.00502
Adam Kennedy	3277	401	385.91	0.122	0.118	0.00460
Placido Polanco	3001	336	322.35	0.112	0.107	0.00455
Brian Roberts	3693	454	438.41	0.123	0.119	0.00422
Ronnie Belliard	3772	464	448.16	0.123	0.119	0.00420
Marcus Giles	4038	497	488.11	0.123	0.121	0.00220
Mark Grudzielanek	3525	433	428.07	0.123	0.121	0.00140
Luis Rivas	1073	124	122.55	0.116	0.114	0.00135
Jeff Kent	3693	439	438.75	0.119	0.119	0.00007
Ruben A Gotay	2185	269	270.51	0.123	0.124	-0.00069
Freddy Sanchez	1189	125	126.21	0.105	0.106	-0.00102
Jamey Carroll	1350	152	153.66	0.113	0.114	-0.00123
Ray Durham	3575	378	383.19	0.106	0.107	-0.00145
Omar Infante	1810	190	193.21	0.105	0.107	-0.00177
Mark Loretta	2772	308	313.81	0.111	0.113	-0.00210
Nick Green	2327	237	243.98	0.102	0.105	-0.00300
Tadahito Iguchi	3533	413	423.75	0.117	0.120	-0.00304
Jose Castillo	2662	298	306.11	0.112	0.115	-0.00305
Aaron Miles	1946	229	235.37	0.118	0.121	-0.00327
Miguel Cairo	2035	241	248.01	0.118	0.122	-0.00344
Craig Biggio	3464	420	432.44	0.121	0.125	-0.00359
Kazuo Matsui	1683	213	221.05	0.127	0.131	-0.00478
Mark Bellhorn	2341	292	303.32	0.125	0.130	-0.00483
Todd Walker	2276	273	284.87	0.120	0.125	-0.00522
Jose Vidro	2062	225	237.14	0.109	0.115	-0.00589
Alfonso Soriano	4411	475	515.84	0.108	0.117	-0.00926
Rickie Weeks	2532	273	296.46	0.108	0.117	-0.00927
Bret Boone	2505	267	291.94	0.107	0.117	-0.00995
Robinson Cano	3555	442	477.68	0.124	0.134	-0.01004
Luis A Gonzalez	1831	210	228.73	0.115	0.125	-0.01023
Jorge L Cantu	2169	203	227.18	0.094	0.105	-0.01115
Chone Figgins	1001	109	128.54	0.109	0.128	-0.01952
Deivi Cruz	1046	100	120.72	0.096	0.115	-0.01981

Probabilistic Model of Range, Second Baseman, 2005, Smoothed Visiting Player Model
Player	InPlay	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Difference
Orlando Hudson	3318	490	408.26	0.148	0.123	0.02464
Alex Cora	1006	125	107.33	0.124	0.107	0.01757
Chase Utley	3490	456	400.46	0.131	0.115	0.01591
Nick Punto	1742	226	198.51	0.130	0.114	0.01578
Jose C Lopez	1406	187	170.31	0.133	0.121	0.01187
Ryan Freel	1216	153	143.14	0.126	0.118	0.00810
Craig Counsell	3908	490	459.89	0.125	0.118	0.00771
Mark Ellis	2880	372	352.66	0.129	0.122	0.00672
Brian Roberts	3693	454	431.41	0.123	0.117	0.00612
Placido Polanco	3001	336	318.61	0.112	0.106	0.00579
Junior Spivey	1767	207	198.10	0.117	0.112	0.00504
Rich Aurilia	1792	201	192.46	0.112	0.107	0.00477
Luis Castillo	3068	386	371.40	0.126	0.121	0.00476
Tony Graffanino	1907	214	205.63	0.112	0.108	0.00439
Marcus Giles	4038	497	482.81	0.123	0.120	0.00352
Adam Kennedy	3277	401	389.93	0.122	0.119	0.00338
Ronnie Belliard	3772	464	455.28	0.123	0.121	0.00231
Mark Grudzielanek	3525	433	426.32	0.123	0.121	0.00190
Luis Rivas	1073	124	122.41	0.116	0.114	0.00148
Jeff Kent	3693	439	437.23	0.119	0.118	0.00048
Ruben A Gotay	2185	269	269.99	0.123	0.124	-0.00045
Omar Infante	1810	190	191.12	0.105	0.106	-0.00062
Freddy Sanchez	1189	125	127.57	0.105	0.107	-0.00216
Jamey Carroll	1350	152	155.01	0.113	0.115	-0.00223
Tadahito Iguchi	3533	413	421.19	0.117	0.119	-0.00232
Ray Durham	3575	378	386.29	0.106	0.108	-0.00232
Mark Loretta	2772	308	315.46	0.111	0.114	-0.00269
Jose Castillo	2662	298	305.66	0.112	0.115	-0.00288
Craig Biggio	3464	420	430.09	0.121	0.124	-0.00291
Aaron Miles	1946	229	235.04	0.118	0.121	-0.00310
Miguel Cairo	2035	241	249.00	0.118	0.122	-0.00393
Nick Green	2327	237	246.53	0.102	0.106	-0.00410
Jose Vidro	2062	225	236.93	0.109	0.115	-0.00578
Todd Walker	2276	273	286.42	0.120	0.126	-0.00589
Kazuo Matsui	1683	213	224.94	0.127	0.134	-0.00710
Mark Bellhorn	2341	292	308.61	0.125	0.132	-0.00710
Rickie Weeks	2532	273	297.46	0.108	0.117	-0.00966
Bret Boone	2505	267	291.43	0.107	0.116	-0.00975
Robinson Cano	3555	442	477.11	0.124	0.134	-0.00988
Alfonso Soriano	4411	475	523.17	0.108	0.119	-0.01092
Jorge L Cantu	2169	203	226.69	0.094	0.105	-0.01092
Luis A Gonzalez	1831	210	230.74	0.115	0.126	-0.01133
Chone Figgins	1001	109	127.94	0.109	0.128	-0.01892
Deivi Cruz	1046	100	120.59	0.096	0.115	-0.01968

Not too much of a difference in order here.

Posted by David Pinto at 08:25 PM | Probabilistic Model of Range | TrackBack (0)

Comments

Well, at least Cano isn't last now. :)

Posted by: sabernar at January 25, 2006 08:41 PM

Will you post 2B by grounders only?

Craig Counsell has 490 outs, and 459 assists.

Grudz has 433 outs, fewer than his 442 assists

Hudson has 490 outs but only 391 assists.

Is he taking a large share of pop flies?

Posted by: Rally Monkey at January 25, 2006 11:10 PM

Yes, I will post grounders only. A good number of assists for second basemen come by way of completing the double play. I'm not giving credit for those. I'm just looking at players who start a play.

Posted by: David Pinto at January 25, 2006 11:14 PM