Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
November 22, 2005
Better than Henderson

Scott Boras employs a very creative statistician:

In the blue free-agent binder that Boras presents to teams interested in Damon, there are 10 sections filled with hundreds of numbers to emphasize why Damon is desirable. If there is a statistic available that details Damon's value, Boras's staff has probably unveiled it.

Boras made a copy of his binder available to The New York Times. In it are sections titled "Best Leadoff Man in Baseball"; "Most Durable Active Player in the Major Leagues/Deserving of a 7-Plus-Year Contract"; and "Better Than Future Hall of Famer Rickey Henderson." Statistics follow each heading.

Just in case that last line seemed far fetched to you, too, their averages through seasonal age 31 (BA/OBA/Slug):

  • Henderson: .293/.403/.441
  • Damon: .290/.353/.431

And just in case that's not enough to convince you, remember the MLB context was in Rickey's favor as well. From 1979 to 1990, the MLB averages were .259/.324/.389. In Damon's career, starting in 1995, the MLB averages are .266/.336/.424. If Boras made such a statement to me, I'd laugh him out of my office.


Posted by David Pinto at 08:41 AM | Free Agents | TrackBack (0)
Comments

Most durable? How about Matsui's 1800 game streak? I don't think Damon even comes close to that, eh?

How about Centerfielder With the Worst Arm Since Bernie Isn't Playing CF Anymore?

Posted by: sabernar at November 22, 2005 09:33 AM

well,

guess ol scot boras has NOT been reading all the sportswriters columns bout how WONderful it is that we now have great gms like pat gillick and ned colletti who just KNOW a good ballplayer when they see him and wouldn't know a stat from a spat

Posted by: lisa gray at November 22, 2005 10:07 AM

I'm just shaking my head. Durable? Damon misses time with crazy concussions from plane crashes in the outfield with walls and people, and his shoulder is injured. He has constant leg problems. I think Boras may be stretching this just a tad, and that is before I even get to the Henderson thing. Ugh.

Posted by: Marc Normandin at November 22, 2005 10:19 AM

Is it legal to just flat-out refuse to negotiate with a specific agent? Can the Red Sox just say to Johnny that they refuse to speak with him about a contract until he ditches Boras?

I'd like to think the Sox are smart enough to see past his BS, but he is apparently a better BS artist than any other MLB agent and tends to cripple teams with his deals. I wonder what the stats are on that?

Posted by: Mike at November 22, 2005 10:20 AM

Uh, why should the Sox even consider signing Damon? It's not clear that he'd even be worth $10m in '06; fat chance he'd be worth that in 2012.

Posted by: Jason at November 22, 2005 10:46 AM

I know the White Sox have publicly said they refuse to deal with Boras in free agency.

Although Joe Crede (I believe) is a Boras client so maybe that'll be a chance for Boras to call their bluff.

Posted by: Matt Bernhardt at November 22, 2005 10:47 AM

Crede isn't worth it. I wouldn't negotiate with Boras or Tellam or any of the other $%#&!@ agents.

Posted by: sabernar at November 22, 2005 11:14 AM

Hey, Damon's an outstanding leadoff hitter and all, but yeah, any comparison to Henderson is an absolute joke. Henderson is probably one of the top 10 ballplayers in the history of the game. Damon isn't even in the top 10 during the period in which he's played.

Boras is off the deep end, and it's astonishing that he gets what he does. He had his "blue binder" for Beltre last year, and the Mariners of all teams fell for it hook, line and sinker. This article should read "if there's a statistic availble that exaggerates or casts deception regarding Damon's value, Boras's staff has probably unveiled it." Still, he wouldn't be THE superagent if teams didn't go for it. He's like the dirtbag guy at the bar who says whatever he needs to go home with the hot chick...and does.

Posted by: Dave S. at November 22, 2005 11:14 AM

Good comparison, Dave S!

Yeah, as much as we all hate Boras, he probably earns his money for his clients. There always seems to be one team that he sucks into his lies.

Posted by: sabernar at November 22, 2005 11:28 AM

Well, Boras has also "suggested" to the Indians what their payroll should be for the upcoming season. The fact he is Kevin Millwood's agent is purely coincidental, I am sure!

Posted by: Mark at November 22, 2005 11:48 AM

The difference is, Tellem is just bad at his job. Maybe we only know about his bigger mistakes and we don't hear about the good things he does... But he seems like a bigger ass than Boras from what I've heard. The way Tellem tries (and fails) to leverage the media into giving him some kind of position in negotiations is despicable and fairly unsuccessful thus far.

Posted by: Mike at November 22, 2005 12:09 PM

Here's a reasonable comparison of Damon vs. Henderson:

Henderson's average OPS+ seasonal age 21-31: 142

Damon's average OPS+ seasonal age 22-31: 102

I took a simple average of single-season OPS+ values, excluding rookie seasons for obvious reasons.

Boras is effectively saying that you can be the better player with 40 fewer points of OPS+. Ha! That's like saying that John Olerud (career OPS+ 129) is better than Pujols (career OPS+ 169)...

Posted by: Jason at November 22, 2005 12:11 PM

So Boras is full of crap. The reason he does stuff like this is because it works. Some idiot GM somewhere is going to sign Damon, light up a cigar and congratulate himself for signing a better leadoff hitter than Rickey Henderson. And Boras and his client will laugh all the way to the bank.

All I know is I would love to have a guy like that represent me!

Posted by: CB at November 22, 2005 12:34 PM

I'm not sure what the big deal is. Advocates have to paint the best possible picture for their clients. Instead of talking about Brady Anderson or Lenny Dykstra, we're here talking about Rickey Henderson. That's good work on Boras's part.

Even Bill James aruged year after year that Jorge Bell's errors never seemed to cost his team any in the W/L column. Did the errors mean that Bell was still a lousy fielder? Sure. It was James's job to represent his client.

Posted by: Martin at November 22, 2005 12:34 PM

David Pinto receiving several credits for his points here
now on XM MLB radio by Chuck Wilson.

Posted by: susan mullen at November 22, 2005 12:45 PM

As far as I recall, Bill James was never an agent.

I agree that advocates have to paint the best possible picture, but to present a sow's ear and claim for it to be a silk purse is what these people are complaining about. It is utterly laughable to us to compare Damon with Henderson but there will be a MLB exec somewhere who either don't know what all the stats mean, or worse, don't care, and fall for the dog and pony show and say, "sign me up!"

Posted by: Biased Giants Fanatic at November 22, 2005 01:01 PM

James worked arbitration cases for players.

Posted by: Marc Normandin at November 22, 2005 01:06 PM

I wonder if Rickey's heard about this...

Posted by: Adam Villani at November 22, 2005 01:12 PM

We'd know if Rickey heard about this. Rickey would tell us exactly how good Rickey really is, and that Rickey could outplay Damon now. Hehe, I love Rickey.

Posted by: Marc Normandin at November 22, 2005 01:51 PM

I watched Bernie Williams embarass himself in CF this season.

Why would any team risk a weak-armed Damon in CF?

Also, who cares if he hasn't been seriously injured. Yet. Boras used that one with Kevin Brown, too.

I know Boras is an advocate, but he seems to cross that hard-to-define line between truth and dishonesty.

-

Posted by: Eric at November 22, 2005 02:38 PM

There's a difference between honest and dishonest advocacy. Any lawyer can tell you that. Boras often seems the latter. Comparing Damon to Rickey is just stupid; between 1995 and 2002, Damon had a better OBP than Rickey only once. And that's for age 36-43 for Rickey compared to 21-28 for Damon.

If I were a GM, of course, I couldn't afford to laugh at Boras' distortions, since sucking up to Boras is important, given his stable of clients. But we're fans, and we can afford to mock his flim-flam act, so we should.

Posted by: Crank at November 22, 2005 03:18 PM

I should add that over that same period Rickey stole 308 bases to Damon's 214. Really, this is like shooting fish in a barrel here.

Posted by: Crank at November 22, 2005 03:24 PM

Rickey played in Oakland and New York. The one year Damon played in Oakland was the worst of his career. The rest of the time he was in hitter-friendly environs. If he was in Oakland today he'd be platooning with Kotsay or backing him up.

Posted by: GEB4000 at November 22, 2005 03:38 PM

Hey Crank I though you were busy. Back to work!

Posted by: GEB4000 at November 22, 2005 03:41 PM

I have a feeling that Scott Boras considers himself too rich to have a direct conversation with you.

Posted by: Matt Davis at November 22, 2005 03:47 PM

But could Henderson equal Damon in arm weakness?

Posted by: high&tight at November 22, 2005 07:57 PM

Forget Rickey. I'd rather have Tim Raines in his prime than Johnny Damon.

Posted by: Yankee Despiser at November 22, 2005 07:59 PM

But it makes you understand why players love having Boras as an agent, doesn't it? What an ego-boost to have a notebook like that prepared about you.

Posted by: Joel J. at November 22, 2005 08:01 PM

I remember years ago hearing Borus say, "Whoever
hires Alex Rodriguez will win the World Series. That's
it."

Posted by: susan mullen at November 22, 2005 08:34 PM

LOL!!! Even before I read the whole post, I was like "no way is Damon better than Rickey". I didn't even know the stats in my head, and I knew that Rickey was far better than him. That's too funny.

Do we know how many win shares Rickey had by age 31, compared to Damon?

Posted by: Devon of Ando por Fe at November 23, 2005 12:37 PM

Damon may very well be a better ballplayer than Henderson. You have to remember, Henderson will turn 47 next month.

Posted by: JeffA at November 23, 2005 01:43 PM

rickey could beat about 93% of the ball players now in a 40yd dash. he was one of the top 10 offensive players in the history of baseball. and one of the few players who did use steriods in the 80s to present. and earned his records

damon has a bad mullet and is never going to see the world series if he leaves the red soxs to the yanks, dodgers, or orioles.

Posted by: colin at November 23, 2005 07:01 PM

i am sorry did not use steriods

Posted by: colin at November 23, 2005 07:14 PM
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