January 10, 2023

Twins Pressure

It appears Carlos Correa tired of waiting for the Mets to make a deal:

Star free agent Carlos Correa is back in serious talks with the Twins after Correa and the Mets have been struggling for nearly three weeks to complete a deal. As of late Monday night it appeared the Twins’ talks with Correa were gaining steam. The way things were going, the Twins appeared to have a decent chance to retain the star shortstop they — along with most everyone else — had thought was surely gone to the Mets. 

NYPost.com

There is the chance this is a ploy to force the Mets into a deal. I have no doubt the Mets have the money to top any deal the Twins propose. It also makes me wonder if the Giants might get involved again, now that their concerns don’t seem at all far fetched.

This is a situation where teams might be happier with a higher average value and a much shorter time line. Instead of $26 million a year for a dozen years, $30 million a year for five years might get a deal done. What we don’t know is the probability of the injury debilitating Correa over time. It might .2 over five years and .8 over ten years.

There is also the cost of insurance. Insurance companies don’t like to provide policies that cover pre-existing conditions. So in the ankle injury ends Correa’s career, the team is on the hook for the money.

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