December 7, 2022

Judging the Judge Deal

The Yankees sign Aaron Judge to a nine-year, $360 million deal. The $40 million per year is a record for average value.

The looming specter of Judge leaving for San Francisco or San Diego gave him the last bit of leverage he needed to land the highest average annual salary ($40 million) for any position player in history, surpassing Mike Trout‘s $36 million per year. But Judge had already done the bulk of the work in improving his bargaining position with his incredible 2022 season.

ESPN.com

I estimate Judge would produce 36.8 over the life of the contract, meaning the Yankees are paying about 9.8 million per WAR. That’s a lot more per expected WAR than Trea Turner, but the deal is for a shorter time span. The money seems just right to me. Of course, if he can repeat 2022 a couple of times, he’ll get to that WAR total very quickly.

I don’t really expect that. His eleven fWAR season was a bit of an outlier in his career. He is certainly capable of a few more seasons over six WAR, and that will do it as well.

Now the Yankees just need to win another championship.

1 thought on “Judging the Judge Deal

  1. rbj1

    A year too long for my taste, though I’m fine with the money. Jersey sales and more ticket purchases. Probably average 35 HR per year. Giving him a HoF 535.

    ReplyReply

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