The Phillies agree to a $300 million, eleven-year contract with shortstop Trea Turner:
The aggressive courtship of 29-year-old Turner by the Phillies accelerated as other teams, including the San Diego Padres, stepped up in recent days. Philadelphia, which lost in the World Series to the Houston Astros, targeted Turner as the perfect complement to a lineup that already includes his former Washington Nationals teammate Bryce Harper, All-Star catcher J.T. Realmuto, slugger Kyle Schwarber and first baseman Rhys Hoskins.
The deal, which includes a full no-trade clause and no deferred money, ties Turner to the Phillies through the 2033 season and is the 10th $300 million-plus contract in baseball history. He is the fourth shortstop to reach that threshold, along with the New York Mets’ Francisco Lindor, the Padres’ Fernando Tatis Jr. and the Texas Rangers’ Corey Seager.
ESPN.com
Turner posted WARs over six in each of his last two seasons, and 2.7 in the short 2020 season. That makes him a consistent star at an important defensive position.
What strikes me about this contract is the claim of no deferred money. While he won’t be paid more later, or money after his career is over, he’s not getting full value now. I would predict that Turner would accumulate about 41.5 WAR over the eleven years of the contract, with 28 of that WAR coming in the first six years. Forty one and a half WAR means the Phillies are paying him just 7.25 million per WAR. Jacob deGrom got about eleven million per WAR for his five year deal.
If you believe the $11 million per WAR is where free agents should be, that means the Phillies expect him to post 27.3 WAR over the life of the contract. My guess is that the Phillies are paying him for the first six years of the deal, after which who knows what will happen. Anything after that point will be a bonus for Philadelphia, and if Turner’s career falls apart after that, he’ll just earn the non-deferred deferred money.
That type of deal also helps keep Philadelphia out of the competitive tax situation.