November 19, 2022

Dodgers Release Bellinger

The Dodgers released 2019 MVP Cody Bellinger rather than overpay him in arbitrtation:

Yet instead of enduring greatness, Bellinger’s career took a wrong turn at what should have been its apex: He dislocated his shoulder celebrating his go-ahead home run in Game 7 of the 2020 National League Championship Series.

The Dodgers would go on to win the World Series within the pandemic-driven bubble, but Bellinger has not been the same since. 

He underwent shoulder surgery in November 2020, but his comeback woes were exacerbated when he suffered a hairline fracture in his left fibula early in the 2021 season. With both his upper and lower halves misfiring, Bellinger batted .165 and his OPS sank to a career-worst .542, with just 10 home runs in 315 at-bats.

USAToday.com

That timeline is fine as far as injuries go, but Bellinger showed signs of decline during the 2020 season as well. In his first three seasons, Bellinger posted BABIPs of .299, .313, and .302. In 2020, that dropped to .245, then .196 and .255. In 2020, he expanded his strike zone, swinging at more pitches in general and more out of the strike zone. He did make more contact, but as his BABIP shows, the contact was weaker. In 2021 and 2022, he kept swinging more, but now was missing the ball. In 2021, pitchers started throwing him more sliders, which turned out to be an effective pitch.

As a free agent, he presents a interesting opportunity for clubs. He’s a useful player who could be great if his injuries are healed and he can regain his batting eye. His defense is good enough as a centerfielder to make him worth $10 million a year. A three-year, $30 million contract with offensive incentives might turn out to be very good for a team on the edge of contention looking to make the next step. The team that makes that deal needs a pretty good plan to get Bellinger to unlearn his bad habits at the plate.

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