For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top picks:
- 0.315 — Tyler Stephenson batting against Patrick Corbin.
- 0.311 — Trea Turner batting against Trevor Williams.
- 0.304 — Kyle Farmer batting against Patrick Corbin.
- 0.298 — Luis Arraez batting against Kevin Gausman.
- 0.295 — Albert Almora batting against Patrick Corbin.
- 0.290 — Trey Mancini batting against Zach Plesac.
- 0.289 — Luis Robert batting against Ryan Yarbrough.
- 0.289 — Brandon Drury batting against Patrick Corbin.
- 0.288 — Mookie Betts batting against Trevor Williams.
- 0.287 — Matt Reynolds batting against Patrick Corbin.
Log5 seems to indicate a good day for the Reds, as Corbin allowed 73 hits in 54 1/3 innings this year. He’s also well over a hit an inning since the start of 2020. Stephenson owns a good BA this year without a ton of walks, but does strike out often.
Here are the NN picks:
- 0.311, 0.733 — Trea Turner batting against Trevor Williams.
- 0.298, 0.713 — Luis Arraez batting against Kevin Gausman.
- 0.289, 0.709 — Luis Robert batting against Ryan Yarbrough.
- 0.280, 0.709 — Rafael Devers batting against Frankie Montas.
- 0.285, 0.707 — Jose Iglesias batting against Charlie Morton.
- 0.275, 0.703 — Ty France batting against Martin Perez.
- 0.285, 0.703 — Paul Goldschmidt batting against Justin Steele.
- 0.315, 0.700 — Tyler Stephenson batting against Patrick Corbin.
- 0.271, 0.696 — J.D. Martinez batting against Frankie Montas.
- 0.265, 0.692 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Frankie Montas.
The NN is less impressed with the Reds chances of a hit, Stephenson ranking eighth. Turner saw his hit streak end on Saturday, so it’s a good day to start a new one. Turner is the consensus first pick, with Arraez the consensus double down choice.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!