For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top picks:
- 0.307 — Andrew Benintendi batting against Jordan Lyles.
- 0.301 — Tim Anderson batting against Nick Pivetta.
- 0.287 — Nolan Arenado batting against Logan Webb.
- 0.287 — Michael Brantley batting against Eduardo Rodriguez.
- 0.285 — Trea Turner batting against Drew Smyly.
- 0.278 — Tommy Edman batting against Logan Webb.
- 0.276 — Pavin Smith batting against Kyle Freeland.
- 0.274 — Wilmer Flores batting against Steven Matz.
- 0.274 — Freddie Freeman batting against Drew Smyly.
- 0.272 — Edward Olivares batting against Jordan Lyles.
- 0.272 — Wander Franco batting against Marco Gonzales.
Benintendi did not play on Friday due to weather, and his match against Lyles remains the top pick of the Log5 Method. Lyles allows a .308/.378/.500 slash line this season.
Here are the NN picks:
- 0.301, 0.728 — Tim Anderson batting against Nick Pivetta.
- 0.285, 0.706 — Trea Turner batting against Drew Smyly.
- 0.287, 0.700 — Michael Brantley batting against Eduardo Rodriguez.
- 0.307, 0.698 — Andrew Benintendi batting against Jordan Lyles.
- 0.264, 0.691 — Trea Turner batting against Daniel Norris.
- 0.271, 0.685 — Luis Robert batting against Nick Pivetta.
- 0.265, 0.680 — Manny Machado batting against Pablo Lopez.
- 0.265, 0.678 — Jose Iglesias batting against Zach Davies.
- 0.274, 0.677 — Freddie Freeman batting against Drew Smyly.
- 0.287, 0.674 — Nolan Arenado batting against Logan Webb.
This is the twelfth time the NN indicated Anderson with the highest probability of a hit in the game. He moves ahead of Turner with eleven. Anderson is putting the ball in play this season, only drawing one walk and collecting just ten strikeouts in 91 PA. By putting the bat on the ball so often, he provides plenty of opportunities for hits. Note that he is 0 for 5 with three strikeouts against Pivetta.
Anderson is the consensus first pick, with Benintendi the consensus double down choice. With the rain yesterday, three doubleheaders are on tap for today, so be careful picking from those games so you get the right matchup.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!