For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
Here are the Log5 Method picks:
- 0.314 — Eric Hosmer batting against Antonio Senzatela.
- 0.312 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Jorge Lopez.
- 0.309 — Yordan Alvarez batting against Jose Suarez.
- 0.298 — Michael Brantley batting against Jose Suarez.
- 0.289 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Jose Suarez.
- 0.288 — Alex Verdugo batting against Jorge Lopez.
- 0.287 — Jake Cronenworth batting against Antonio Senzatela.
- 0.286 — Corey Dickerson batting against Luke Weaver.
- 0.285 — Trent Grisham batting against Antonio Senzatela.
- 0.282 — Fernando Tatis Jr. batting against Antonio Senzatela.
Only twelve teams are in action Monday night, so there will be slim pickin’s today. Hosmer is off to a great start in 2021, matching his last really good season in 2017.
Here are the NN picks:
- 0.312, 0.734 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Jorge Lopez.
- 0.309, 0.728 — Yordan Alvarez batting against Jose Suarez.
- 0.298, 0.717 — Michael Brantley batting against Jose Suarez.
- 0.314, 0.711 — Eric Hosmer batting against Antonio Senzatela.
- 0.288, 0.705 — Alex Verdugo batting against Jorge Lopez.
- 0.289, 0.696 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Jose Suarez.
- 0.286, 0.695 — Corey Dickerson batting against Luke Weaver.
- 0.268, 0.691 — Buster Posey batting against Kyle Gibson.
- 0.246, 0.685 — Jose Iglesias batting against Luis Garcia.
- 0.255, 0.685 — Raimel Tapia batting against Dinelson Lamet.
- 0.274, 0.685 — Rafael Devers batting against Jorge Lopez.
Bogaerts collected 45 hits and nine walks in 33 games, so his .396 OBP is based mostly on hits. His regressed 2021 hit average stands at .290, which is outstanding when the league average sits at .211. Hosmer and Alvarez stand as the consensus double down picks.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!