For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
Here are the Log5 Method picks:
- 0.315 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Dean Kremer.
- 0.308 — Raimel Tapia batting against Adam Wainwright.
- 0.303 — Justin Turner batting against Jose Quintana.
- 0.296 — Colin Moran batting against Kyle Hendricks.
- 0.295 — Adam Frazier batting against Kyle Hendricks.
- 0.295 — Corey Dickerson batting against Brett Anderson.
- 0.289 — Alex Verdugo batting against Dean Kremer.
- 0.289 — Buster Posey batting against Chris Paddack.
- 0.288 — Trevor Story batting against Adam Wainwright.
- 0.285 — J.D. Martinez batting against Dean Kremer.
- 0.285 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Joe Ross.
Moran left Saturday’s game against the Cubs with an injury, but it is not considered serious. Note that the Padres have not made a final decision on their starter for today. Tapia owns an eight-game hit streak during which he’s batting .438/.455/.562.
Here are the NN picks:
- 0.315, 0.732 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Dean Kremer.
- 0.282, 0.723 — Tim Anderson batting against Mike Minor.
- 0.308, 0.715 — Raimel Tapia batting against Adam Wainwright.
- 0.285, 0.709 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Joe Ross.
- 0.303, 0.705 — Justin Turner batting against Jose Quintana.
- 0.295, 0.702 — Corey Dickerson batting against Brett Anderson.
- 0.289, 0.700 — Alex Verdugo batting against Dean Kremer.
- 0.282, 0.699 — Trea Turner batting against Domingo German.
- 0.289, 0.697 — Buster Posey batting against Chris Paddack.
- 0.267, 0.693 — Michael Brantley batting against Nate Pearson.
Bogaerts and Tapia are the consensus 1-2 picks. Once again, the NN values Tim Anderson more highly than the Log5 Method.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!