April 1, 2021

Last Minute Lindor

The Mets and Francisco LIndor completed a long-term contract extension:

The New York Mets and shortstop Francisco Lindor have agreed to a 10-year, $341 million deal, a source told ESPN’s Jeff Passan on Wednesday.

Lindor’s deal will be the third largest based on total value in major league history, trailing only the deals for the Los Angeles Angels’ Mike Trout ($426.5 million) and the Los Angeles Dodgers’ Mookie Betts ($365 million).

ESPN.com

The details are not in yet. I don’t know if this is an extension or a replacement of the arbitration deal signed earlier this winter. Assuming it’s a replacement, this seems like a very good deal for the Mets. Lindor is a 5.5 WAR player who is at his peak this season. That gives the Mets three seasons at 5.5 WAR before the 10% decline begins. I estimate Lindor should be worth 42.3 WAR the next ten years, which works out to a little over $8 million per WAR. Given the uncertainty of the finances of the game, that’s a very good price for a non-free agent. It’s good for the rest of the players in the game as well, as it should drive up the free agent price over the winter.

Of course, as the best players continue to sign long-term deals, it’s becoming tough to know what the market will bear for outstanding talent.

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