August 9, 2020

Low BABIP

Tom Tango notes that fielders are converting batted balls into outs at an unprecedented rate.

Since start of 2020 season, fielders have converted into outs 71.1% of the 7630 balls of hit into play

In 2019, there was NO STRETCH where fielders converted as many plays into outs. The average was 69.1%

TangoTiger.com

Tom makes some suggestions as to why, and the one that caught my eye was this:

I asked Tom if this included openers, and here’s his response:

So I looked at BABIP against starting pitchers by inning. (BABIP is basically 1-DER, and easier for me to calculate.) Here is 2020 compared to the previous 10 season by inning, when the starter is pitching.

Season Inning Plate App At Bats BIP Hits BIP AB Batting Avg BABIP
2020 1 1687 1506 268 1035 0.217 0.259
Previous 10 Years 1 208571 186865 42929 141015 0.263 0.304
2020 2 1639 1463 255 1022 0.212 0.250
Previous 10 Years 2 200169 181049 39326 133825 0.248 0.294
2020 3 1563 1403 281 1004 0.234 0.280
Previous 10 Years 3 198069 177771 40206 134958 0.256 0.298
2020 4 1414 1248 243 895 0.248 0.272
Previous 10 Years 4 190629 172146 39110 130659 0.262 0.299
2020 5 1046 944 198 694 0.244 0.285
Previous 10 Years 5 172392 155442 35453 118900 0.260 0.298
2020 6 587 536 112 384 0.254 0.292
Previous 10 Years 6 128835 116872 26851 89836 0.265 0.299
2020 7 151 142 30 107 0.254 0.280
Previous 10 Years 7 62947 57551 13000 44301 0.257 0.293

As you can see, BABIP is lower in 2020 in every inning for starters, but the first two innings are off the charts. This might suggest that openers are making the difference. I also can believe that since starters know they are not going deep in games, they don’t need to hold back to have something left in the tank for the seventh inning.

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