July 3, 2020

Test Results Day

Jeff Passan notes that MLB releases the COVID-19 test results today, and a high number of positive cases might end the season just as training camps get underway:

Unless the number of positive tests from this week’s intake screenings is wildly out of whack, that first trap door should be dodged. A reasonable baseline to consider is the NBA. Of the 351 players tested in the past 10 days, 25 came back positive. At that rate, baseball would return about 125 COVID-positive players among the 1,750 or so on 60-man player pools.

If MLB exceeds that by a significant number — say doubles it — that would pose questions. How many players are asymptomatic? How long will they be out? What will they do if one person or two or more need hospitalization? That last one especially remains unanswered.

And if it’s fewer positives? No COVID case is a good case, but a lower prevalence than another league would be beneficial. Baseball plans to proceed with teams traveling from city to city and do so without punitive measures for running afoul of suggested guidelines. The NFL is considering fining players for eating out. The NBA will establish an anonymous hotline in its bubble.

ESPN.com

The MLB antibody study earlier int the year showed about seven in one thousand with signs of an infection. That would be about 12 or 13 players. Obviously, MLB would like the number closer to that end of the scale, but any where between that the NBA rate likely will allow the season to continue.

Stay tuned.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *