The Twins and Miguel Sano agreed on an extension that guarantees $30 million over the next three years, and could be worth $41 million over the next four years:

After June 28, Sano batted .279 with a .994 OPS. During the stretch run, Sano was one of the best hitters in baseball.

ESPN.com

Given his history, the Twins should expect about seven WAR from Sano during the four years of the contract. Sano, however, has tremendous upside. His career pattern so far is an up year followed by a down year, his fWAR for the last three seasons 2.4, 0.1, 2.1. Even in the good years when he’s above two, he did not play complete seasons.

If he stays healthy and post three seasons of three WAR or more, the Twins reap a substantial residual value. For Sano, his injury history means he may not do well in free agency when he’s eligible. This seems like both sides understood the risks and rewards of the deal, and reached a very good one. I would bet on the upside for the Twins. All Sano needs is a four-WAR campaign in this his age 27 season to make the deal break even.